What We're Reading

Wall Street’s reaction to hotter-than-estimated inflation data suggested growing bets the Federal Reserve has a long ways to go in its aggressive tightening crusade, making the odds of a soft landing look slimmer.

After a lengthy period of subdued equity swings, volatility has been gaining traction. That doesn’t bode well for a market that’s gotten more expensive after an exuberant rally from its October lows. Stock gains have been dwindling by the day amid fears that a recession in the world’s largest economy could further hamper the prospects for Corporate America.

A slide in the S&P 500 Friday added to its worst weekly selloff since early December. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled about 2% as the Treasury two-year yield topped 4.8%, the highest since 2007. The dollar climbed. Swaps are now pricing in 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s next three meetings, and bets on the peak rate rose to about 5.4% by July. The benchmark sits in a 4.5%-4.75% range.

“There’s little room for upside i

Are we officially in the process of being caught off guard?

Maybe you've never heard of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). But no doubt, as the 2020 election nears, you will. It's the latest contentious buzzword to hit Washington, D.C.

The idea, despite its name, is not new or "modern." But it has set off a heated political and economic debate, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell telling Congress last week that Modern Monetary Policy is "just wrong."

Does Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, represent a brave new future of ever-expanding government spending to meet Americans' vital needs? Or is it a dangerous idea that could lead to runaway inflation, financial disaster and, ultimately, collapse?

The theory, in a nutshell, says that because the U.S. can borrow in its own currency, it can simply print more money when it needs to pay off its debts. All the Fed has to do is keep interest rates low. Simple. It's an increasingly popular idea among left-leaning economists.

Fed Chairman Powell: MMT Is 'Just Wrong'

Not surprisingly, however, when Fed Chairman Powe

I found this interesting (the rise) however I have my own reservations because of the possible change in rates and inflation in 2017.  When inflation rises, interest rates also normally rise to maintain real rates within an appropriate range. PE ratios need to decline to reflect the increase in the earnings discount rate. Another way to look at it is that equities then face more competition for money from fixed income instruments. The cost of equities must therefore decline to keep or attract investors.  Then there is the Rule of 20 to consider.  Rule of 20 equals P/E + long term interest rates (average of 10 and 30 yr bond rates).  If at or below 20 minus inflation -- the market is a buy.  If above 20 minus inflation -- the market is a sell. Today we're at just about 20.  I think I'll keep my cautious side up.  Keep moving up my alerts and stick to only brief swings.  Something tells me it's going to be an interesting year.  All focus on the Fed and inflation.  

During the past week (

"A lie told often enough becomes the truth" - Vladimir Lenin

Imagine for a minute you lived centuries ago when people believed the earth was flat, or the earth revolved around the sun, or that planets were Gods, or that disease was angry spirits or supernatural powers. You'd have an explanation for everything ... only it would be wrong. And that "wrongness" would stand in the way of true understanding and true progress until they were discarded as falsehoods.

And so it is with the Stock Market. Let me explain.

First, let me be perfectly clear. I'm a statistician so I'm not referring to philosophical or political or gut feelings or anything other than Statistical Misrepresentations. Fact, not opinion.

I can hardly go a day without reading an article or hearing a TV pundit or someone regurgitate misconceptions that are so integrated in our minds ... we believe them to be the truth.

These misconceptions cause us to make investing mistakes because we take them as axiomatic when they are

Since the election the financial markets have been trying to price in “Trumpflation.” This is the idea that the combination of infrastructure spending, tax cuts, rising deficits, immigration curbs and protectionist policies could reverse the disinflationary trends we have witnessed over the past few decades and more dramatically since the financial crisis. The selloff in the bond market amid surging interest rates might be the single most important piece of evidence in this regard.

Over the summer I noted we were likely witnessing the final blow-off stage of the bond bull market (see this and this). Since then the long bond has fallen nearly 15% leading many pundits to conclude it has already begun pricing in the prospect of Trumpflation. However, if you look at the data, it appears it’s just not pricing in as much deflation anymore. In fact, by some measures the yield 10-year treasury bond would still need to double in order to finish the job.

A simple model based on #inflation, #ISM

We’ve been bulls on 30-year Treasury bonds since 1981 when we stated, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” It’s still under way, in our opinion. Their yields back then were 15.2%, but our forecast called for huge declines in inflation and, with it, a gigantic fall in bond yields to our then-target of 3%.

The Cause of Inflation

We’ve argued that the root of inflation is excess demand, and historically it’s caused by huge government spending on top of a fully-employed economy.  That happens during wars, and so inflation and wars always go together, going back to the French and Indian War, the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the Mexican War of 1846, the Civil War, the Spanish American War of 1898, World Wars I and II and the Korean War.  In the late 1960s and 1970s, huge government spending, and the associated double-digit inflation (Chart 1), resulted from the Vietnam War on top's LBJ’s War on Poverty.

By the late 1970s, however, the frustrations over military stalemat

Pretty much as I had expected.  Consumers are tapped out and you can blame inflation the Fed says doesn't exist the necessities, food and gasoline.  Certainly the packages have become small to mask the cost but we all know it's there, lurking.  We're getting less and less for our hard earned buck and $20 just doesn't buy what it used to....leaving less for dining out, electronics, clothing, vacations, etc.  

Retailers beginning to feel the pinch may shift to more coupons, clearance sales, preferred customer discounts.  Others will continue to tighten the belt internally moving more to cloud, temp agencies for personnel (a huge cost savings) and other cost-cutting measures.  Insurers for example have discovered that making lump sum payments to Doctors for Cancer patients saves them over 30%.

It won't take much, however, for overseas tensions to cause a spike in oil/gas prices and then what?  We're teetering on the spending cliff in my opinion and something has to give.........

From Gall

Filling up at the pump yesterday, paying $3.79 for low grade made me wonder.  Aren't you supposed to be kissed before you get screwed over?  Captain Obvious over the last few years is the disconnect between gasoline demand/usage in the U.S. vs. price when it comes to the stinky stuff and that price chart certainly looks like a large, bull flag which should make your head spin at the potential increase ahead unless something changes.  Surely the gentleman next to me would have to sell a body part or small child to fill up his enormous SUV.  Fool with that huge tank but he thinks he looks slick.  The powers that be decided they wanted us to become accustomed to $3/gal and it seems that we have unfortunately but I have to keep saying it, the demand just does not justify the price of oil without a supply disruption or military crisis in the Middle East.  As much as I hate to say it, the Prius is beginning to look good.  Maybe a scooter?  It worked well for Larry Crowne.  Someone save me.

Your hear the reassuring echos all of the time.  "Don't worry! The market will always come back."  But do they?  What about dividend reinvesting and adjusted for inflation?  Given the data, one can easily see why smart money continues to invest in bonds, annuities, universal life, etc.  Merely my .02 cents but remember, charts don't lie - people do.

Consider these two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which I usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through today's close.

The Big Three

The 'Real' Big Three

Price Change

The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets usually do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations.

The charts above are based on price only. But what about dividends? Would the inclusion of div

Numerous articles have noted a sharp rise in the price of renting an apartment or house across the U.S.  Many have also argued that the rise in rents disproportionately affects lower and middle class renters.

I know in my own situation, my rent increased 9% in 2013 and 10% in 2014.  Did our incomes increase by as much?  I wish.

Houseofdebt.org decided to take look by examining the great data available on rents from Zillow.

The chart shows general inflation (measured with PCE headline inflation) versus the increase in rents. Both series are indexed to be 100 as of November 2010 (the first month the Zillow data are available).

The pattern is undeniable: rents are rising much more rapidly than other consumer prices.

The Fed may be emphatic that we're not experiencing inflation but when it comes to housing, there's no denying the facts.  Gas at the pump has doubled since 2008 (isn't it convenient they exclude food and energy), food prices have crept higher but portions and package size hav

• Saving down, lending up and tapering combine in a perfect storm.  One of our favorite bloggers CalifiaBeachPundit
• More tech companies are experiencing DDoS cyber attacks including SAY Media (Typepad), Meetup, Basecamp, Vimeo, Bit.ly and others.
• 51% of Americans are unsure of the validity of the Big Bang theory.  For many it's because it can't be seen or seems too far away  A look at the iron triangle of science, religion and politics,
• For the first time in history, the rich find themselves working longer than the poor.
• The Fed must choose:  more jobs or lower inflation.
• Shipments through the port of Los Angeles jumped 34% spurring a bit of (recovery) conversation today on Wall Street
• Google follows Facebook and Twitter with app-installed advertising.

It makes me insane when the Fed says inflation remains subdued.  Subdued?  idk where they live but my rent in 2013 went up 7% and this year, 9%.  A 2-liter bottle of CocaCola used to be .99 cents.  Now it's $1.99.  Don't even get me started on the ridiculous increase in crude oil versus a few years ago (doubled) and how small a bag of my favorite chips has become 1/3 the size for the same price.  Oh, that's right.  They don't include food and energy (the stuff that always goes up).

Last time I looked, housing cost was still included in inflation numbers but yet today a minimum wage person would have to work two weeks just to pay the rent.  Forget about the electric, cable, phone or food.  Oh wait, let's see if we qualify for a free Obama phone and food stamps (sarcasm).  I'm sorry but I hope they raise the minimum wage.  The government should not have to subsidize workers to survive because minimum wage has not risen along with cost of living.  They two should go hand-in-hand if you a

• The argument to lift the ban on crude oil exports Bloomberg
• How big oil (and Senators) are positioning at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Bloomberg
• A 3pm gold "fix"?  This study says it began in 2004. Bloomberg
• That's what I've been saying.  Fed may have to let inflation run hot to meet goals. Reuters
• Markets spooked as confirmation came of Russian troops taking over two airports in the Crimean area of the Ukraine.  UN to hold closed-door session this weekend to discuss situation. Reuters