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Five Reasons To Fear Deflation

1290958?profile=originalThe deflation scare is back, as Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone report on the front page of The Wall Street Journal. It’s worth taking a moment to contemplate why deflation is such a bad thing. After all, falling prices sound appealing to consumers, especially compared with the alternative of higher prices.

So why worry?cci.png?width=268

Here are five reasons:

1. Deflation is a generalized decline in prices and, sometimes, wages. Sure, if you’re lucky enough to get a raise, your paycheck goes further–but those whose wages decline or who are laid off or work fewer hours are not going to enjoy a falling price index.

2. It can be hard (though, as we’ve seen, not impossible) for employers to cut nominal wages when conditions warrant;  it’s easier to give raises that are less than the inflation rate, which is what economists call a real wage cut. And if wages are, as economists say, marked by “downward nominal rigidity,” then employers will hire fewer people.

As Paul Krugman put it i

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Which Is Wrong? Bonds Or Stocks?

1290848?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024With so much money flowing into bonds and treasuries (TLT shown) in 2014 while the stock market rose, one must wonder..........which one is going to give?  (click chart to enlarge)

Certainly it would seem not everyone believes the economy is strong enough to support future earnings and rising profits.

Is the five-year bull run finally running out of steam?

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