quantitative easing (4)

Are we officially in the process of being caught off guard?

 

I wasn’t even going to write a note this morning, because it’s Sunday and I have a couple pieces planned for the week to come. But then I had an interesting set of realizations this morning while walking to get my coffee:

  1. Many young people on Wall Street nowadays have never experienced real volatility in markets

  2. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation at 7.5% in the U.S. are two extremely different, complex and unmapped pieces of terrain that we are going to be forced to navigate

In other words, we have a ton of inexperienced market participants that should be bracing for the economic shock of their lifetimes, but they’re not - they’re still at the stage where walking around Manhattan in Patagonia vests, drinking Starbucks and making dinner reservations at whatever douche-motel is trendy this week are among their top concerns.

This wasn’t a big deal when I first pointed out in November that I thought the NASDAQ could crash. We

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The Cost of Robbing Peter To Pay Paul

The government now has a greater command over the nation’s resources. But it is equally obvious that no one can raise revenue without someone else bearing the cost. To deny it would imply revenues could be raised for free, which would imply that wealth could be created by printing more money........ So now we know we have a slightly better understanding of who pays: whoever is furthest away from the newly created money. And we have a better understanding of how they pay: through a reduction in their own spending power.

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