What We're Reading

Over the past 50 years, the global economy expanded sixfold as the world’s population and per capita income each grew at unprecedented speed. The global population more than doubled while average per capita income almost tripled to about $13,000 at 2012 purchasing power parity. However, there are significant doubts that this growth bonanza will continue in the long term given that the demographic tailwinds of the past half century are now waning.  Hundreds of millions of people were lifted out of poverty.  Yet without significantly boosting the one engine the world economy still has—productivity growth—this period may prove to be a historic anomaly. 

Unless we can dramatically improve productivity, the next half century will look very different. The rapid expansion of the past five decades will be seen as an aberration of history, and the world economy will slide back toward its relatively sluggish long-term growth rate.

Over this time, two factors powered exceptionally fast GDP growth

For the love of Pete.  I can only imagine what's going through the minds of investors.  First fears of energy name defaults and now China's real estate (bubble) may have it's first big default?  It'll be a fun Sunday night when futures open. 

The Chinese real-estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings had a healthy balance sheet, according to investors and observers alike. It was the top-rated residential-property-sales firm in the city of Shenzhen, in the first half of 2014. It was known for fast, reliable work.

But on Thursday, Kaisa appeared to become the first Chinese development firm to default on offshore debt, missing a $128 million interest payment on $500 million of debt to foreign investors. Representatives of the company say they aren't sure whether the payment was made, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Consider this a slap in the face to investors chasing yield around the world and finding it (or so they think) in emerging-market junk bonds. Back in 2013, Kaisa and its fellow C

It seems not all money managers out there have the warm-n-fuzzies for equities in 2015.  Especially considering the almost two year sell-off in commodities, finally joined by crude oil in dramatic, face ripping action.  In fact, one feels that the rise in interest rates in 2015 will do what is not expected; flatten the yield curve.

If the curve flattens gradually, most traders said it probably means investors believe the Fed will keep future inflation in check with gradual rate hikes. Bond traders hate inflation because it erodes the value of their fixed-income investment.

But if the curve-flattening trend speeds up?

"It's time to trade out of investments whose success depends on a strong economy... for both stocks and corporate bonds," said Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co., an institutional brokerage.

This means reducing exposure to sectors like retail, transportation and automobiles and moving into defensive picks like health care and consume

While guests on CNBS CNBC and Bloomberg are busy encouraging you to buy oil names which are down over 50%, I wouldn't expect to reap any big rewards any time soon.  In fact I believe there will be much more pain ahead, depending on the strength of the company you chose.  Iran sanctions may be giving it a boost near term but once they're lifted (or eased) their production is expected to double which is once again, bearish for this oversupplied market

While everyone is in agreement that crude oil is in a bear market, quite often one strategy is to buy the laggard and anticipate it to outperform the following year.  The trouble with crude oil however, are the fundamentals.

1. U.S. consumer Demand (figure 1)  Consumption has been dropping since 2000 thanks to more fuel efficient autos and younger Americans (millennials born from 1980 to early 2000s) being drawn to work in and the lifestyles of large metropolitan areas.  Baby boomers (born 1946-1964 or 51-69 years of age) will contribute

Deflation = Low wages + negative interest rates

Deflation will be the dominating theme of 2015. Deflation occurs when prices of production factors (wages and interest rates) fall to the extent of limiting labour and capital from drawing higher prices. The culprit to these conditions is typically an excess supply of labour and capital to the extent that wages and interest rates weaken substantially until they draw sufficient demand to the point of stabilising their price.

But as demand for labour and capital fails to fill the supply of workers and available liquidity, the spiral of excess supply takes over wages and interest rates remain weak, and even negative. Deflation hurts borrowers relative to lenders. Countries whose central banks combat deflation, or conduct reflationary policies, should see their currencies depreciate. As low inflation extends to disinflation and creeps into deflation territory in Europe and China, the US runs the risk of importing deflation via the strengtheni

Who doesn't love the lame duck session?  It's that special time of year when Santa comes early to Wall Street and you too, can benefit.  As one example, outgoing Congressmen and woman who lost during mid terms, tend to throw in the towel (they won't be around next session anyway) and all types of goodies get through the Congressional pipeline which were stalled during the normal session.  This years winners if you're an investor are:

• Banks and insurers.  Congress repealed a portion of Dodd-Frank so that derivatives will now be covered once again by FDIC Insurance, thus lowering the risk to banks and insurers like AIG.*
• Health insurance companies get to keep their special tax breaks.
• Tourist destinations like Las Vegas get their travel promotion subsidies.*
• In a victory for food companies, the legislation even makes federally subsidized school lunches less healthy by allowing companies that provide them to include fewer whole grains. This boosts their profits because junk food is less

With half a century in the market, whose wisdom better to draw upon than Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS.

Lastly what Christmas holiday would be complete without Art's annual poem courtesy of BusinessInsider:

'Tis two days before Christmas

and at each brokerage house

The only thing stirring

was the click of a mouse

Down on the Exchange

the tape inches along

Brokers bargained and traded

as they hummed an old song

 

The Fed says they're "patient"

but some folks still fear

That rates they'll start hiking

too early next year

 

Frisco took the series

and Seattle the Bowl

But Tiger still struggles

to get the ball in the hole

 

Ellen D. took a group selfie

at the Oscar awards

The darn thing got retweeted

till it pulled down some boards

 

Putin scooped up Crimea

and some parts of Ukraine

But an oil plunge and sanctions

are causing him pain

 

In Europe a song contest

was won by a nun

And the song that she sang was -

Girls just want to have fun

 

In Portland a kid offered

a hug

Back in the 1990's, we as Managers were trained in racial diversity and businesses began their slow and gradual integration for the Hispanic community (Spanish calls center workers, select "5" for Spanish on automated phone services, packaging with alternate language, etc.). The CBO had already made the predictions of the shift in U.S. ethnicity and companies had to prepare. Fast forward 10 or 25 years from now now and just what will be the face of the consumer ahead?  What about job growth, income growth and how many older Americans will fall off of the economic spending gap?

Russia's central bank raised interest rates last Friday from 9.5% to 10.5% in an effort to support the falling currency and battle inflation.  When that did nothing, they shocked markets by raising it again overnight from 10.5% to a whopping 17% in what some are calling an emergency move.  This was their sixth interest rate hike this year to support the currency.

The central bank early on Tuesday also increased the maximum volume of foreign currency it provides to Russian banks via its foreign-exchange repurchase agreement auctions for 28 days to $5 billion from $1.5 billion.

Sadly the RUB/USD barely moved. (left image - click to enlarge)

Russia's economy still depends in large measure on sales of oil and gas, which account for about two-thirds of exports, despite liberal policymakers calling for structural economic reform for years.

That means swings in global oil prices have a significant impact on Russia's balance of payments, and therefore the rouble exchange rate.  This will c

According to Ashraf Laidi:  The following sobering analysis on the S&P500 reinforces our expectations that recent record highs in US equity indices will not be revisited before at least six weeks.

A decline of at least 10% is expected to follow.

-        Last week’s 3.6% decline in the S&P500 single-handedly erased all of the prior seven weeks’ consecutive gains.

The last time the S&P500 erased at least three weeks’ of consecutive gains was the week after the October 2007 record. Stocks fell more than 50% thereafter and took six years to regain that high.

-        And for an unprecedented finding, last week’s S&P5 500 decline took place after SEVEN weekly consecutive gains, which had NEVER been seen before in the index.

Seven consecutive weekly gains have occurred in the past (Aug-Jul 1989, Aug-Sep 1993, Apr-May 1997, Feb-Mar 1998, Dec 2003-Jan 2004, Apr-May 2007, Mar-Apr 2009, Dec 2010-Jan 2011, Jan-Feb 2013), but never in any of those cases has the streak-breaking week fallen by more

More than half the new households formed in the next six years will be renters rather than homeowners, according to a new report by the Urban Institute. But there aren’t nearly enough rental units to keep up with demand.

The result will be (is) low vacancy rates and higher rents, alongside stagnant incomes. Renter incomes are on average only 70% of homeowner incomes and add to that wide spread student loan debt and you have a good investment I believe will continue to profit (and pass on any interest rate hikes to their tenants).  This is not a short term blip on the radar screen either (see table below).  While everyone on CNBS (sic) will be cheering to buy builders, I will be watching apartment REITs for my IRA account.  Buy on weakness, sell on strength and ooooh, those dividends are a thing of beauty.

• Equity Residential (EQR) is perhaps the biggest name in the space, with 580 properties stretching across 24 states, representing some 152,000 rental units.  Good liquidity trading 1.

Indeed, I've read much concern over this area as oil collapsed so it does merit a warning.  From ZeroHedge:

The S&P 500 Energy sector stocks are down over 12% year-to-date, tumbling over 3% today to fresh 20-month lows. The spread (or risk) of high-yield energy credits surged again today, breaking above 850bps for the first time... The overall high-yield credit market is being dragged wider by this contagion as hedgers try to contain the collapse that is possible. For now, the S&P 500 remains entirely ignorant of the fact that over a third of its CapEx was expected to come from this crushed sector...

According to DB

US private investment spending is usually ~15% of US GDP or $2.8trn now. This investment consists of $1.6trn spent annually on equipment and software, $700bn on non-residential construction and a bit over $500bn on residential. Equipment and software is 35% technology and communications, 25-30% is industrial equipment for energy, utilities and agriculture, 15% is transpor

Came across this interesting map of the largest revenue generating corporation by state and found

it somewhat interesting.  Living in Texas, I'm not surprised to see Exxon as our largest revenue generator (we do have around 30 refineries) but Archer Daniels Midland in Illinois?  I lived there for over 50 years and never knew they were located in Illinois nor met anyone who worked there.  Oklahoma it's Loves travel stops and country stores?  Alrightee then.  I wonder how many tax breaks these companies receive to retain their corporate offices there?  I wonder how many Americans they employ.  Uh oh, I better stop before I get political here.  Enjoy (click on map to enlarge)

As the price of oil extends a free fall that began this summer, countries around the world that rely on oil revenues are bracing for an imminent economic and budget hit.  The drop is widening budget gaps in the Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain that rely heavily on oil to pay government services.

With oil and gas production accounting for some 70% of Russia's government spending, Moscow also faces a big shortfall—after budgeting based on $100-a-barrel oil for 2015. Russia's economic growth was already slowing before the plunge in oil prices. Trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe—in response to the invasion of the Ukraine—will further crimp growth and government spending.

The impact of budget gaps among big producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, though, will be softened somewhat by large reserves built up during boom years. But a protracted era of cheap oil would force them to undertake serious belt-tightening.

Note:  Click on a c

Although US equities are overbought on short term (daily) time frames, long live Japan equities after BoJ announced they will ramp up more of theiir own QE last Friday.  Will Abenomics work?  Who knows, but it's easy to see where money is flowing. 

As many Western economies are seemingly slowing down again, with most of them still struggling with stubbornly high unemployment levels, they will only benefit from the current sharp drop in oil prices which will stimulate the global economy. Moreover, countries now have the opportunity to replenish stocks and protect themselves against future price hikes. Stockpiling begs the question: how long will prices remain relatively low compared to recent years? Will they fall further? $60 would certainly kick start substantial economic activity or will supply be rained back?

In the past, we have seen the US and its Western partners put pressure on OPEC, and the world's only swing producer Saudi Arabia, to increase supply so as to lower prices or maintain price stability. Are we about to see them create further price fixing market imperfections by asking the Saudis to cut production so as to create a return to higher prices? Much of the Western economic commentaries are suggesting the Middle

Stock markets have enjoyed a banner half-decade, forcefully reclaiming the ground lost to the financial crisis, and then some. This vigorous performance has occurred thanks, above all else, to two key enablers: surging earnings and recovering valuations. On the surface, there is nothing especially questionable about either. Earnings naturally rise as economies grow, and valuations recover as risk aversion fades.

However, a closer examination reveals a significant vulnerability within this cozy equation. Corporate earnings growth has been, in a sense, too good – persistently outpacing both revenues and the economy. This has driven profit margins to multi-decade highs.

Worryingly, profit margins have long been assumed to be mean-reverting, arguing that these juicy gains may eventually have to reverse. Such a scenario would necessitate an eye-watering one-third decline in the S&P 500. With stakes as big as these, a clear sense of the downside risk is imperative. This report evaluates th

If Germany is the European leader, one can easily see how this bodes for the rest across the pond as well as DEMAND for goods and services coming out of the U.S.

According to Reuters Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said on Monday he expected zero growth in the fourth quarter in Germany and that there were almost no bright spots for German industry at present.  "Things have not gone well for German industry and there are no bright spots for industry," he said. (click chart to enlarge)

Business sentiment darkened in October for a sixth month running, according to the Munich-based Ifo think-tank's business climate index, which fell to 103.2 from 104.7 the previous month. That was its weakest reading since December 2012.

Wohlrabe said recent upward momentum in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany was not yet visible. Only firms' export expectations had risen slightly, he said, although it remained to be seen if this was sustainable.

Hans-Werner Sinn, President of Germany’s Ifo In

Let’s take a moment and put the market’s current trading action into perspective. Earlier this year bullish sentiment reached levels not seen in years or even decades depending upon data source. Market volatility had also fallen to levels not seen in years as the market was steadily making new all-times highs. S&P 500 actually went 63 trading days without a 1% percent daily move higher or lower. A feat last accomplished in 1995. And it has been more than three years without a 10% or greater S&P 500 correction. This is four times the average duration of time between corrections. Not to mention the market shrugged off tensions in Ukraine, Ebola in West Africa, the rise of ISIS in the Middle East, slowing global growth concerns and the Fed slowly easing up on stimulus. Honestly the market had gotten ahead of itself and was in need of a cool-off period. More likely than not, that is what it is doing.

Yes, weak economic data out of Asia and Europe is a concern as they are major U.S. tradin