What We're Reading

It appears they have the votes. Market is responding.

Rules and regulations exist to let us know what behaviors we should expect from the people we do business with. Sometimes, good sense or social convention overtake these rules — and they don’t matter so much. Just about everyone wears seat-belts these days (we all know how much they improve our odds of survival in an accident); the ranks of underage smokers have plummeted (it’s no longer cool). Once the toothpaste is out of the tube, as they say, there’s no cramming it back in.

Such is the case with the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule. On Friday, President Trump asked the Labor Department to review the rule, which requires brokers working with retirement savers to put the interest of their clients ahead of their own. After years of work on it, the regulation was finalized last year by the Obama administration.

At first blush, this looks like a big way the Trump administration could directly affect everyday investors. As it turns out, whether the fidicuary rule hurts you isn’t up

We are into the homestretch of 2016, and the markets have seen strong upside this year, benefiting from the domestic economy's resilience and the election of Donald Trump.

With just four sessions to go, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been a up a solid 14.4 percent, the S&P 500 has risen 10.8 percent and the NASDAQ Composite is 9.1 percent higher — with all the three major averages trading off their all-time closing highs.

Among the ten S&P sectors, eight have been in the green. Old economy stocks such as energy, material, industrial, financial, utility and telecom are all up by double-digit percentages. Technology stocks are also up decently. However, the healthcare sector has taken a hit.

Though it is tough to replicate the performance of 2016, given the tougher comparisons and the uncertainty around policies amid the political leadership transition, Wall Street does see some opportunities that are compelling.

Here is a compilation of some top picks recommended by Wall Street an

The S&P 500 Financials sector has been a focus sector for the markets in recent weeks. This past week, the Federal Reserve Board increased the target range for the federal funds rate. Earnings for banks and other companies in the Financials sector are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates. In addition, this sector has recorded the largest increase in value (+22.2%) of all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 since the start of the fourth quarter (September 30). Given these developments, have analysts been increasing their 2017 EPS estimates for banks and other companies in the S&P 500 Financials sector over the past few months?

The answer is yes. In terms of EPS estimate revisions, 38 of the 63 companies (60%) in the S&P 500 Financials sector have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 since September 30. At the sub-industry level, the three subindustries that have the largest percentages of companies that have recorded an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 (sin

In addition to charts I uploaded (which there are many more but I'm short on time, it being a holiday) here are a few of my weekend email reads I found interesting. Enjoy - and Happy Easter.

1. Variant sees commercial and industrial lending to continue to fall.  No, not a good thing.
2. The top 20 reasons start ups fail.  Visual Capitalist
3. Think renewables will gain usage over coal and crude oil?  You may be surprised.  McKinsey
4. Domo origato mr roboto Visual Capitalist
5. Here we go again as banks ramp up and push home equity loans (because we didn't learn the last time).  WSJ
6. Brookings says technology actually has not made up more productive (say what?)
7. The richest and poorest countries in the world. Visual Capitalist

"A few outsiders saw what no one else could". Hat tip to sadiq. With so many big stars, I'll be watching this one.

Ready for tomorrow's numbers, gold and IWM are ready to head either way.  Utilities are sitting at support and banks are ready to scream up.

Higher-than-expected claim numbers will mean the economy is not as strong as we believed and the chances of a June rate hike will be off the table until September. 

No support or resistance is broken so we'll wait for the numbers but isn't it grand; how the markets are not rigged.  Sarcasm alert there.  Good luck.

Who doesn't love the lame duck session?  It's that special time of year when Santa comes early to Wall Street and you too, can benefit.  As one example, outgoing Congressmen and woman who lost during mid terms, tend to throw in the towel (they won't be around next session anyway) and all types of goodies get through the Congressional pipeline which were stalled during the normal session.  This years winners if you're an investor are:

• Banks and insurers.  Congress repealed a portion of Dodd-Frank so that derivatives will now be covered once again by FDIC Insurance, thus lowering the risk to banks and insurers like AIG.*
• Health insurance companies get to keep their special tax breaks.
• Tourist destinations like Las Vegas get their travel promotion subsidies.*
• In a victory for food companies, the legislation even makes federally subsidized school lunches less healthy by allowing companies that provide them to include fewer whole grains. This boosts their profits because junk food is less

While the market continues to digest yesterdays' comments from new Fed Chairwoman Janice Yellen that rates will begin to rise possibly as early as six months after tapering is complete (mid-2015 rather than late 2015), banks are definitely yelling pahtay with big gains across the financial sector today.

Even $C (who I normally detest) is attempting to breakout of a beautiful double bottom pattern. 

Like it or not, banks will be more willing to lend in a rising rate environment and let's face it; it's tough to make a buck when you're lending at 3%.  I would imagine this will be good for broker/dealers as well although not shown here.  Now if only we could get Congress to do away with that pesky transaction tax debate.  Life would be wonderful.

Full disclosure; I'm long JPM and loving today's action.

I gleaned this from a twitter mention and after searching a bit, I found it in pdf form.  Ironic, I found it on a blog resource I sometimes frequent.  It is dry reading, but it is full of useful information.

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/analyzing_and_investing_in_community_bank_stocks.pdf

If they were to pursue foreclosures in a timely fashion as well as push out the REO's sitting on the books, prices would fall.  Don't believe for a minute this is only the U.S. either.  This is/will be a global approach.  Now that values in many areas are almost back to pre-crisis levels, are we about to see a glut of inventory hit the market?  I'm willing to say so.  House hunting anyone?  (RealEstateEconomyWatch)

Meet "Curt" who, as credit lines worldwide were tightening, lost his middle management job in finance in 2006.  Of course Curt had no idea of what was to come.  He was a good worker, great work and credit history and was lucky to have a nice nest egg saved up.  He wouldn't need unemployment, no.  He'd have a job in no time so he did what every good American in his position would do.  He dusted off his resume, began to network/emailing his resume and paid his bills using his hard earned savings and waited.......for a job that would never come.  

Then bubble burst.  The market began it's long downwards spiral but Curt, undaunted, continued emailing and living off of his savings....and still did not file for unemployment.  Surely something will turn up any day now, he told himself.

For four years.  

Four years of bank failures, branch closings, massive consolidations and layoffs.

By 2010 the stock market was clearly rebounding however it was all over for Curt.  After four long years he ha