What We're Reading

I've never been big on ordering online because I'm a touch-n-feel kind of consumer who still still prefers to read a package, try on my clothes, read an hard cover book, etc but will the typical consumer find the price hike too much?  Apparently JPM doesn't think advising that the loss of customers going form $79/yr to $99/yr. would more than be offset by the increased revenue.  BusinessInsider took a look at just how often you need to shop Amazon using their prime services and broke it down for us.

• Basically if you order 20+ items per year less than $35 each
• Order 10+ items per year over $35 each
• Comparable to NFLX cost in streaming video
• More expensive than Kindle by 1/3 at one book per month

Clearly anyone earning $7.25/hour is priced out of this product but isn't that they way things are going anyway? 

An ongoing list for your weekend consideration.  Check back with us throughout to view additions to your reading and trade setups here (and in the Charts section).. 

• Poor, poor Diet Coke.  A chart says it all.
• Reminder:  Tuesday is our income tax deadline (click image to better view IRS excuses) with Good Friday to follow, on which U.S. markets will be closed.  Short weeks tend to be bullish with low volume however that remains to be seen given current conditions.  Most, it would seem, believe any rally attempt will fail at higher levels. 
• Electric cars, "peak oil", wind/solar and why high gas prices is a good thing McKinsey
• A study of peak P/E for the S&P500 SeekingAlpha
• Pro-Russia armed men seize police station in the Eastern Ukraine city of Kiev.  Why should Pooty have to lift a finger when militant forces are doing the work for him?
• With crude oil recently being pushed higher due to the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, I felt the need to dig up this 2010 post

• Jaw-dropping chart of the day is consumer income vs. the stock market.  Can you say mean reversion?  Which one will revert first?
• Don't forget to check out our Charts section for trade ideas, historic, seasonal charts and much more!
• Germany's $11 billion program MobiPro-EU to train youths with job skills has run out of money.  In all seriousness, the US could certainly use some form of program such as this or give Corporations incentives to offer re-training for those long out of work.  Whatever happened to vocational training in high schools?  Cut along with education spending?  That wasn't a smart idea Congress.
• 90% of crops in the U.S. are now GMO. (WSJ)  Considering how many countries have banned GMO's, is this a good or bad thing for Monsanto? $MON

Money continues to flow into bonds as they breakout and overseas markets area a sea of red.  Selling begets selling.  Stay hedged or stay out.  S&P currently trading below it's 50d. 

Overseas market image courtesy of Ritholtz

• Initial jobless claims fell 32,000 last week, the largest drop in more than 10 years and, though the Labor Department says there are no special factors involved,
• Market quickly reversing yesterdays gains and more.  If you got long yesterday, you're most likely out now.  The bulls really needed today to confirm yesterdays move.  If you're a bull, this morning's action is quite concerning.......but the day has only begun.
• Chinese exports tumbled 6.6% on year in March, which represented an improvement from an 18.1% plunge in February, although consensus was for growth of 4%. Imports slumped a worse-than-expected 11.3%, while the trade balance swung to a surplus of $7.71B from a deficit of $22.98B
• Tesla Motors intends to begin selling its electric cars in China this month, with spokesman Simon Sproule saying that CEO Elon Musk will "personally" do customer deliveries. Musk reckons that China can be Tesla's (TSLA) largest market, although Barclays analyst Brian Johnson retains some skeptic

When Louise Yamada talks, I tend to listen.  We'll be watching closely the next few days as the market back fills and if individual names fail at their 200d and 50d.  Will more double tops form and still other head-and-shoulder tops fail as their neckline are tested?  Some still feel the market is fairly valued.  Some still feel the market has gotten ahead of EPS.........and earnings (expected to be very lackluster) have just begun.  Let us not forget "sell in May and go away" fast approaching and as Louise points out, distribution tops can take quite some time to develop and sell.  I'm tempted myself to hit the road.  Aruba is calling my name.  Wall of worry is one thing but low-to-no earnings is another.  Only time will tell.

In full disclosure, several members are scalping longs here common in USO, UNG, FB, FEYE, BAC, GILD, V, RHT (and various option plays), having bought on Mondays low but all seem to be expecting failure at one point.  If you cannot be nimble, you may want to sit

La Nina, an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon where the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean is lower than normal, tends to bring heavier than normal wet weather to the U.S. Midwest.  Yes, blame La Nina for the record snowfall the last few months.  It's all her fault.

El Nino on the other hand, brings warmer water to the sea surface and has a tendency to bring the exact opposite so you're talking possible drought conditions BUT just where does that wet weather go?  To coastal regions in the U.S., Chilean, Peruvian, New Zealand, and Australian coasts, among others.....causing landslides and affecting those crops.  As an example, an increase in monsoons in India could affect their sugar cane crop while drought-like conditions in the U.S. Midwest would affect corn and soybean outputs.

Just how strong El Nino will be remains to be seen but more than a few believe it's going to be a hot one.  ABC News Meteorologist Melissa Griffin says the pending El Niño

All the greats seem taken too soon.  Growing up in Chicago, Pulitzer Prize winning Mike Royko was a household name during his 30 year career writing for the Chicago Sun Times and Chicago Tribune.  He and Bob Green were daily fare as we rode the train downtown with their unique, engaging, almost addictive writing style.  I have no idea how I missed this gem but ladies if you haven't taken self defense classes, never fear.  From one of my favorite writers - here goes; enjoy!

We’ve had the year of the woman and it is still going on, with females being elected to high office and named to the Cabinet posts, and the power of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But what about Curtescine Lloyd? You never heard of her? Well, she is my choice as one of the most amazing and heroic women of recent years. Ms. Lloyd is a middle-aged nurse who lives with an elderly aunt in the rural hamlet of Edwards, Miss., near Jackson. This is her story, most of it taken from the court transcript.

One night, Ms.

Shark Tank's own Kevin O'Leary says he only invests in stocks who pay dividends. 

"70% of the returns of the last 40 years have come from cash flow; from dividends."

Enjoy - (hat tip member GT)

• Did  the market simply get ahead of itself vs EPS?  Click chart to enlarge.
• What do rubber/tires and biotechnology have in common?  They're the top two areas of 5 year growth according to Goldman Sachs global IQ
• DB upgraded Alcoa ($AA) to Hold from Sell, citing expectations of higher realized aluminum prices. A weekend report said Alcoa may be turning around, due to its commitment to using aluminum for cars and as global producers have begun to cut capacity.  Full disclosure: Kos recommended AA as a drawer stock sub $9/share in July 2013. 
• 14 companies are due to price IPOs through Thursday, which would make this week the busiest for such offerings since November 2007.
• High-cost copper miners face a stark choice between cutting production and sustaining losses for the first time in a decade.  FT.com
• McKinsey explorers the next industrial revolution doing more and saving with existing (recycled) resources.

It feels good to actually be making money on the short side for once and not struggling.  Yes, leadership has evaporated with utilities being the only real strength right now with head-and-shoulders tops and double tops as far as the eye can see.  Transports, financials and even oil/gas is seeing profit taking at this juncture.  The Nasdaq has lost it's 100d SMA which was historically great support.  Remain hedged; there will be more downside.  Whether we bounce a bit first (back and fill) to bring in more sellers is an unanswered question but don't buy the dip.............not yet.

Yep, now I'm ready!  The AMC cable TV series The Walking Dead is wildly popular, no doubt about it.  Who knows what the future may bring?  LOL

• Big Put buying going on against the Nasdaq according to Bloomberg.  Is anyone shocked given the heavy selling the last two weeks?  It's not a dip, there's something more going on here and we all know it this time.
• GM allegedly to invest in Michigan and hire 1400 workers for their Volt production line.  Unconfirmed at this point but press release is supposed to come tomorrow.
• You'd think with more streaming services being released (NFLX, AMZN, GOOG) that cable providers would be feeling the pinch but JPM recommends they hike prices anyway.  The loss of customers will be offset by price paid by those who remain.  (because $150 a month is cheap.  Augh!) 

I drink my tea on this cold and rainy day and my first thought, as I looked at this chart, that screamed in my brain was "the debt the debt!  omg what are they thinking?"

History suggests that China’s Minsky Moment is approaching quickly, since corporate debt has topped 150% and total debt is over 210%. Investors around the world should prepare for the inevitable demand shocks and falloff in global growth … regardless of the specific outcome. The Chinese government may have the assets to backstop a truly horrific crisis and maintain slow growth in the 2-3% range, but history suggests that China could land very hard.

Over the last fifty years, every investment boom coupled with excessive credit growth has ended in a hard landing, from the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, to Japan in 1989, East Asia in 1997, and the United States during both the late 1990s internet bubble and the mid-2000s housing bubble.

The lesson is always the same, and it is hard to avoid.

Economic mira

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a support rather than a breakout.  This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years.  This style is not for everyone but buying at support, I feel my downside risk is more c

Corporations have had no choice but to learn quickly that, like it or not, support on the the issue of same-sex marriage has been steadily (and rapidly) gaining steam across the nation faster than the interracial debate of past and that *not* supporting it publicly creates quite a the backlash.  Just ask Chick-fi-a and Prop 8 donor, now Mozilla ex-CEO Brendan Eich.

Maybe the smart decision for CEO's would be to remember just "who" is their target customer and who are they going to offend with your (CEO) personal view?  Do they truly match those of your company's core beliefs and Corporate code on diversity?

Consider AdWeek data showing women make 73% of the purchasing decisions in the home so maybe what it boils down it is...........before you go an open your pie hole, consider just how many women you're going to alienate.

Hats off to Nabisco Foods and parent company Kraft ($KRFT) for taking on the subject full frontal with their latest Honey Maid commercial and responding to the hater

It may not be a popular view but then again, when everyone's on one side, doesn't the market tend to do the opposite of what's expected?  It seems the Elliott Wavers of the blogisphere are calling for gold to head lower here but I stand by my call of last week that the low will hold and we'll see a head-and-shoulders bottom (right shoulder) forming here.  Silver and all of the miners reflect a similar pattern, as posted here at StockBuz last week.  The weekly even resembles a possible double bottom.  Wouldn't that be sweet!  At the very least, down side risk is defined (last weeks low) but with fear in the market and heavy selling continued after the first of the month, utilities (safe haven) are already hitting a new high and I believe flight to precious metals will continue as well.  At least in the near term.  Not a long/hold.

Stumbled across this heart warming clip of Carlos Whitaker jamming in a park.........when a homeless man walks up......and joins right in.  Music touches all people, worldwide. Enjoy!

• 200 million social security numbers breached @ Experian.  US Attorney General to launch probe. (nothing is safe if a credit bureau is hacked)
• The DoJ confirms the FBI is investigating high frequency trading (HFT).  With the way broker/dealers (AMTD, ETFC, SCHW) were slapped heavily last week, it looks like this time it's serious.
• The FBI is asking the public (traders and stock exchange workers) to blow the whistle on HFT.
• The SEC (accustomed to making it's own decisions when it comes to TBTF banks) feels their authority has been undercut and doesn't care for Dodd-Frank or The Financial Stability Oversight Council, who now can make it's own regulations with respect to "systemically important" financial institutions.  Shocking.........because the SEC did such a horrible bang-up job of stopping the last financial crisis. Heritage.org
• Where have all the workers gone?  WSJ takes a look (free access).  If you ask me, there's no incentive with minimum wage so low and those long o