$spx (5)


Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Just like a civil courts case, the market is now guilty until it can prove itself innocent.  Just as in January/February 2014, we are trading below a falling 20d, which to many, represents sellers there.

As the cases of Ebola continue in Africa, residents down here in Dallas are nervously watching the news for any indication of further spread from the Dallas infected.  It's tragic and unsettling.  While I prepare to fly to Chicago tomorrow for my daughters wedding, I must admit to already having thoughts "what if the infection spreads further here while I am gone?".  I've never been an alarmist however those in voluntary quarantine continue to take risks, going on airplanes and cruise ships, placing others at risk.  If more Ebola cases spout up in other cities, will people begin to stay in their homes and venture out less to theaters, malls, restaurants, bars, etc.?

The ECB announced they will begin their asset purchase program much sooner than expected after a raft of grim eurozone

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Easter Weekend Reads

  • Energy is better than technology Stocktwits1290590?profile=RESIZE_320x320
  • State Department indefinitely postpones the Keystone pipeline (obviously waiting for November mid-terms or if all else fails, a new, hopefully more persuasive President in 2016) Ecowatch
  • General Mills pulls a fast one (I'm sure more will follow) using the fine print when you "like" a page on Facebook ($FB) thereby agreeing to forced arbitration.  In simple terms, you won't sue them for product recalls, mis-labeling, you name it.  Pretty slick, I must say. Rawstory 
  • Money rotation into late cycle names continues Stocktwits

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Damn It Feels Good

1290533?profile=RESIZE_320x320It feels good to actually be making money on the short side for once and not struggling.  Yes, leadership has evaporated with utilities being the only real strength right now with head-and-shoulders tops and double tops as far as the eye can see.  Transports, financials and even oil/gas is seeing profit taking at this juncture.  The Nasdaq has lost it's 100d SMA which was historically great support.  Remain hedged; there will be more downside.  Whether we bounce a bit first (back and fill) to bring in more sellers is an unanswered question but don't buy the dip.............not yet.

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Historic SPX Supports - And Past Crashes

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

  1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
  2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a support rather than a breakout.  This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years.  This style is not for everyone but buying at support, I feel my downside risk is more c

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