gld (16)

Admin

The stock market continues to weaken, as evidenced by these ETF charts.    If you zero in on a sector you wish to short, I would bear in mind that ETFs are comprised of market leaders.  I would look for names "outside" of the ETF components; consider them leaders and you want the weaklings to short.

The reasons for weakness are numerous. 

Consider the election weight (a Trump win would weigh on equities but Clinton weighs on pharma pricing).  Then there are flat-to-dropping sales.  Of course the USD movement (up will weigh on commodities and large caps with overseas exposure).  Then there's those who feel we are already at or above maximum value and they're not buying here.  They're hedged, short some and long financials ahead of the Fed rate hike.  Then there's that Fed hike itself.  High dividend is flushing down the toilet (SDY) in September.  Overseas weakness with China not helping boost confidence for demand.  And we also have more failure at the OPEC talks with no offer from o

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Admin

Seven Ways To Trade The Brexit Vote

Next week will be a historical one for both the United Kingdom and the global economy. On June 23rd the British people will decide whether to leave or stay in the European Union. Polls have been mixed over the last couple months, but the latest out show momentum for leaving, which is scaring the markets.

Loss of British sovereignty is the fundamental reason for leaving the EU, as many supporters want to take back control of U.K. borders in order to curb immigration. Those that wish to stay in the EU say there are severe short-term economic consequences that would make trade difficult and slow the economy. Even President Obama recently said that if there is a Brexit, the U.K. would go to the “back of the queue” in American trade deals.

While debate and speculation is running rampant, markets are watching the British Pound closely. Last week U.S. indices tracked and moved with the Pound tick for tick, showing that traders are very concerned about the upcoming vote.

So how can you profit

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Admin

Gold Shrugs Off 'Armageddon'

This was the week Greece inched closest to chaos, as a bank holiday and a technical default caused markets around the world to erupt in turmoil. They recovered somewhat Tuesday, and futures looked stronger Wednesday morning, but on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 2.4 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2.09 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.95 percent. Volatility exploded, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged 35 percent, its biggest increase in two years, to 18.85. 

1291156?profile=RESIZE_480x480One would imagine that such a scenario might be constructive for gold. It has been called the best measure of fear, the only real currency, a refuge for those who plan for panic. So how is it doing these days? Spot prices were soft on Monday, despite the wild volatility in equities, drifting down a few bucks from about $1,180 an ounce to about $1,176. They fell a few dollars more yesterday, and are soft Wednesday.

I thought gold was an investor’s best friend dur

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Admin

Poised For Jobless Claims

1291177?profile=RESIZE_320x3201291213?profile=RESIZE_320x320Ready for tomorrow's numbers, gold and IWM are ready to head either way.  Utilities are sitting at support and banks are ready to scream up.

Higher-than-expected claim numbers will mean the economy is not as strong as we believed and the chances of a June rate hike will be off the table until September. 

No support or resistance is broken so we'll wait for the numbers but isn't it grand; how the markets are not rigged.  Sarcasm alert there.  Good luck.

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Admin

Random Notes

Life has intervened of late however I felt I would post my random thoughts viewing my port yesterday:

  • Russia is still working. RSX at it’s 100d today. I will add more if it comes back to the 50d http://screencast.com/t/Eh88iqLP   Long hold, definitely.  Throw it in a drawer and forget about it.

  • Buffet lowered his XOM stake and bought DE.  DE Monthly sure looks like its coiled up for something. Buffet obviously thinks new all time highs http://screencast.com/t/rlyFa0yzLeb  DE earnings this Friday bmo. I'd be long common and get put protection.  Buy or add on any selloff.  Daily view, bouncing off that 50% fib (to me) equals good chance it wants to challenge/break the high http://screencast.com/t/oEgnCfo0SJg 

  • I still like the consumer stapes sector here. XLP or one of its components. They come into seasonal demand next month thru Summer.   I'm already long PEP and KMB as mentioned here previously in Chat.  For a list of XLP components, visit http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_hold

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Admin

Gold Losing Its Luster

1291170?profile=RESIZE_320x320I'm back from Illinois after "life intervened" and I rushed out the door and gold has done exactly what I felt it would do.  In this previous post I felt that the 100 week SMA would pose a resistance and if you think about it, it makes complete sense.

  • From a season standpoint, gold doesn't have much demand until last Summer when Indian festival and wedding season kicks in followed by jewelry gift giving as the Winter holidays approach.  (see seasonal chart)
  • Inflation is very low = no need to hedge with gold
  • The stock market is challenging new highs.  When equities are doing well, not to mention the killer strong U.S. dollar, again there's no need to hedge risk with gold.

For all you gold bugs out there, dude, be a patient investor and wait for smart entries.

My guess is that gold will take out the low which has been tested three times and we'll see lower pricing.  For those who want to place bets on gold falling, I would recommend $GLL or $DGZ however beware; they are thinl

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Admin

Gold Bulls Take Care

1290793?profile=originalI can’t tell you that gold is a bad investment. Even after the recent plunge, if you bought gold in 2004, your investment would have earned you an annualized rate of about 10.4 percent, after accounting for inflation. That is darned impressive. If you bought in 1994, it would have earned about 3.9 percent per year -- not too shabby. Even if you bought all the way back in 1984, you would have earned 1.8 percent in real terms. (Of course, this assumes that shadowstats.com is wrong, and that inflation hasn’t been massively understated.)

In addition to delivering decent long-term returns, gold has been a way to spread or offset investment risk. As my co-blogger Yichuan Wang showed last year, gold’s return is somewhat negatively correlated with interest rates, so that a bet on gold is to some degree a bet on lower rates. This is actually the prediction of some old economic models, which also indicate that gold should have a positive rate of return over the long term. But a lot of the varia

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Admin

I'm Not Insane, No, Maybe

For all you doubters out there, yes I have out my pompoms on the move in gold and silver this week.  You scoffed in March when I said a right shoulder could be formed.  Then again chuckled in April and May 3rd but I ask you who's laughing now?  Already I'm seeing tweets of a possible H&SB and I'm comfortably long SLV calls, enjoying the sunshine.  Scoff all you wish you financial gurus.  Charts don't lie; people do.

This daily for GLD and SLV is intriguing, showing both breaking out of falling wedges (they should test support which would be great to get in or add more shares or calls).

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Gold seasonal demand doesn't actually kick in until late Summer for festival season in India, unless you're a believer of getting in early.  Silver does see some season demand in the Summer due to coin manufacturing BUT these two could also be signalling some fear in the equity market topping.  Of course this could also be nothing more than short covering (inflation hedge?) but it is what it is  Bull

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Admin

Seasonal Demand Trades June 2014

Seasonal demand is just what it sounds like.  What seasons certain things see higher demand such as natural gas for A/C and heating or gold for jewelry manufacturing and sales.  With that in mind I thought I'd flip through our Seasonal Charts for hints of possible trades here and in the months approaching.  My unscientific belief has been that larger players begin to buy long futures contracts before the season hits so I begin to watch for divergences and support in charts.  Click on the charts below for a better view.  Let's take a look:

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Consumer Staples Which can be traded via $XLP or one of it's components are items which consumers feel they cannot do without.  They're considered non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing (or not performing).  Think diapers $KMB, personal hygiene $PG, discounters like $WMT, beverages such as $KO, cigarettes $MO and $PM, pharmacies such as $WAG and $CVS.  There are many other names, b

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Admin

Weekend Reads May 3rd-4th

  • 1290581?profile=RESIZE_480x480Stocktwits: "investor say the bottom is in for gold"
  • Hey, wait a minute.  Didn't StockBuz say watch for a gold (GLD) weekly right shoulder to form back in March and early April?  Even posting on the gold miners here.  We're ahead of the herd once again......maybe.   (click image to enlarge)  At least risk is minimal; stop below $120
  • SINA pre-announced an earnings beat but also announced it has received two notices from Chinese regulators stating its "License for Online Transmission of Audio-Visual Programs would be revoked due to certain unhealthy and indecent content from third-parties or by users" on Sina.com and its affiliated online literature site.  Ouch!
  • JPMorgan becomes the first to warn on trading revenues in Q2, expecting markets revenue to slip 20% after declining 17% in Q1.
  • AAPL wins a Federal jury decision again Samsung on smart phone patients but it's a victory for Samsung with less than 10% sought, actually being awarded ($120m vs. $2bil).  The jury rejected Ap

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Admin

Throwback Thursday Reads

  • No shocker here as the FTC issues a blistering rebuke of states limiting sales of TSLA direct consumer sales.
  • So much for the peace accord with Russia as they begin military exercises (WSJ)  Markets will not like this continued uncertainty.  Watch crude oil, gold, silver and copper.original-old-apple-logo.jpg?width=235  You will note that bonds $BND (flight to safe haven) have been holding up.  Not everyone is pouring money into equities.
  • The first regulation proposals are coming out on e-cigarettes  $LO currently holds a 42% market share..
  • Talk about putting cash to work.  AAPL has bought 24 companies in the last 18 months.  Searching for innovation allthewhile announcing an increase to their stock buyback, stock split and quarterly dividend to keep value investors in the name.  Oh, and an earnings beat once again to a low bar set.  Way to go Tim Cook.
  • The FCC said it will propose rules today that could give high-speed Internet providers more power on what content moves the fastest on the Web based on which firms pay th

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Admin

Gold: Sticking With It

1290529?profile=RESIZE_480x480It may not be a popular view but then again, when everyone's on one side, doesn't the market tend to do the opposite of what's expected?  It seems the Elliott Wavers of the blogisphere are calling for gold to head lower here but I stand by my call of last week that the low will hold and we'll see a head-and-shoulders bottom (right shoulder) forming here.  Silver and all of the miners reflect a similar pattern, as posted here at StockBuz last week.  The weekly even resembles a possible double bottom.  Wouldn't that be sweet!  At the very least, down side risk is defined (last weeks low) but with fear in the market and heavy selling continued after the first of the month, utilities (safe haven) are already hitting a new high and I believe flight to precious metals will continue as well.  At least in the near term.  Not a long/hold.

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Admin

Hump Day Reading

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  • For all the worrying about weather impacting job creation, Trim Tabs say real time tax receipt data (allegedly more reliable than BLS data) suggests that the economy has been picking up steam.  24/7WallStreet
  • A 8.2% magnitude earthquake overnight off the coast of Chile with a 2 meter tsunami.  Supposedly mining operations have not been affected buy you try to tell that to silver and gold this morning.  They're not buying it (so far)
  • Interesting metrics from Flurry on mobile usage today.  GOOG accounts for 18% of time spent by consumers which includes YouTube, while FB is 17%.   Android web browsing is losing market share, going from 20% or usage down to 14%
  • Facebook apps continue to hold strength ahead of Google according to Comscore data..  Twitter's app was only used by 22.8% of U.S. smartphone users in January. 77.6% used Facebook's core app, and 27.5% Instagram. Five different Google apps were used by over 40% of users.
  • The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) met it's targ

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Admin

All That Shines, Gold And Silver

Sometimes it pays to simply remove the distraction of moving averages and let the chart movement speak for itself.  What say you StockBuz?  Are those head-and-shoulders bottoms or no?  Long gold and silver (and miners) with a stop below last weeks low (to your tolerance).  Partial on a breakout, move up stops to b/e, final target equal to distance of head to breakout zone.  Call it flight to safe havens, call it massive short covering/profit taking, .  Who cares.  The risk/reward is irresistible.

1290476?profile=RESIZE_480x4801290508?profile=RESIZE_480x4801290536?profile=RESIZE_480x4801290568?profile=RESIZE_480x480

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • With the increase in US oil (hello Bakken), shipping black gold by rail has caused backlog in shipments of other goods across all industries forcing rail companies to scramble to expand.  The biggest loser: shippers.  Sounds like more promo for Keystone to be approved WSJ
  • Are you guilty or have you been there, done that?  Take a different view of those around you in the service industry and how you/we view and interact with them.  An open letter to Paul Ryan on poverty Salon
  • Last night after the close, CME lowered margin requirements for Brent and WTI crude oil futures.
  • Members here at StockBuz have been playing precious metals and miners; gold, silver, GDXJ (junior miners).  Investing.com has noticed the move off of the lows as well.
  • The "death spiral states" talk of Democratic states leading in number of Welfare recipients (shockingly) distorts the full truth.  What else will the Koch brothers come up with next?  Factcheck.org
  • China slowing is the biggest threat to growth currently,

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Admin

1290021?profile=RESIZE_480x480Today was a typical Saturday.  I began to scan my watchlist, ran through the indexes and flipped through my favorite web pages for tidbits of stockmarket insight.   At one point I noticed that in wake of yesterdays selloff in gold/silver, suddenly people were posting seasonal charts for gold and silver.....as if they had just been discovered.  Helllllo McFly.   No, there is no seasonal demand for  the shiny stuff here.  Hasn't been; move along.  Economies are healing; meaning there's less of a need to hedge yourself with gold and bonds.  With no demand and less of a flight to safety,the big boys are taking profits.  Again, nothing there, move along.

I thi1290057?profile=RESIZE_480x480nk some people just stopped paying attention but world economies are less bad, period.  While we're not out of the woods, unemployment is stabilizing.  Jobs are coming back, albeit slowly and low paying...but things are no longer deteriorating.  Maybe the gurus out there just didn't want their subscribers to know the secret to their a

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