What We're Reading

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a support rather than a breakout.  This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years.  This style is not for everyone but buying at support, I feel my downside risk is more c

Last week BTIG's Dan Greenhaus tried to dismiss the talk of the January effect (calm investors) stating “Normal corrections” tend to be anywhere from 5-8%, which is basically what we had/are having. If that’s the case, and our underlying fundamental views have not shifted (they have not), then stepping into markets down more than 5% should prove rewarding over time.  Of course me, being a skeptic of MSM (and everything out there for that matter), caught the last two words "over time" and raised an eyebrow.  Seriously?  Over time?  Most small investors won't risk more than 10% of any position.  Many only $100 if possible and this prompted me to poke around a little further on this January effect *thang*

The Street seems to buy the theory "When the first five trading days of the new year are positive, the month of January ends positive 76% of the time. When the month of January is positive to start the year, the stock market finishes the year positive 82% of the time."   While Barry Rit