I drink my tea on this cold and rainy day and my first thought, as I looked at this chart, that screamed in my brain was "the debt the debt!  omg what are they thinking?"

History suggests that China’s Minsky Moment is approaching quickly, since corporate debt has topped 150% and total debt is over 210%. Investors around the world should prepare for the inevitable demand shocks and falloff in global growth … regardless of the specific outcome. The Chinese government may have the assets to backstop a truly horrific crisis and maintain slow growth in the 2-3% range, but history suggests that China could land very hard.

Over the last fifty years, every investment boom coupled with excessive credit growth has ended in a hard landing, from the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, to Japan in 1989, East Asia in 1997, and the United States during both the late 1990s internet bubble and the mid-2000s housing bubble.

The lesson is always the same, and it is hard to avoid.

Economic miracles are almost always too good to be true.

Read the full article by Worth Wray at Thoughts From The Frontline

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a support rather than a breakout.  This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years.  This style is not for everyone but buying at support, I feel my downside risk is more clearly defined and I ride the stock higher before many others pile in.  I'm notorious for buying double bottoms, wedges that have broken out and have come back to test support and even right shoulders at their bottom, as examples.

In any case, these things became clear. 

• In a correction, the 30month EMA has hands-down been support more often than not, then followed the 50m SMA unless there's a larger issue occurring.  (click chart to enlarge)
• For example the "tech crash" of 1970.  Not only was there "euphoria" on the future growth of computer companies, tech was trading @ 119x P/E (!), earnings were flat or nonexistent, some analysts such as Dun & Bradstreet felt techs boast of 30% earnings growth was a myth and there were also the near-fatal mission of Apollo 13 and Nixon sending troops into Cambodia.  Selling can beget selling with one thing after another and with this 25% correction, the 200m EMA was support.
• In 1973-74 there was a larger correction thanks to (in part) the oil embargo where gasoline jumped 4x in price (and it's effect on consumer spending) as well as, of course, Vietnam.  The support this time (what I'd call the buy of a lifetime after a 47% drop) was the 400m EMA............and this was support in 2009 as well.
• During the market "crash" of 1987, the 50m SMA provided the safety net after 32% was gone.
• In 2000-2003 (another huge 50% dump), the 200m EMA found huge buying interest.

Obviously there are many more examples and it tends to vary but ask yourself "where do you want to buy?" and even more importantly.......where is smart money buying?  Even if I was dollar cost averaging, I wouldn't want to buy near a top and average down more than I would have to.  Pension funds have that cash flow to buy at the top and hold losses for long periods of time - we don't!

Obviously don't take my word for it.  Try it for yourself.  Pull up a history monthly chart of $SPX and overlay the 20EMA, 30 EMA, 100EMA, 200EMA and 400EMA.  Add a 50 SMA, sit back and scroll through time.  In my opinion if you're a long term investor, these our orders should lie.  Certainly a good portion of my portfolio will continue to be swing trades based on daily and weekly chart but for long/holds, IRA or what we call "drawer stocks", this is where it's at if you ask me.

Now..........where are you going to buy based on the current "possible" stock market correction?

Trade safely my friend

Corporations have had no choice but to learn quickly that, like it or not, support on the the issue of same-sex marriage has been steadily (and rapidly) gaining steam across the nation faster than the interracial debate of past and that *not* supporting it publicly creates quite a the backlash.  Just ask Chick-fi-a and Prop 8 donor, now Mozilla ex-CEO Brendan Eich.

Maybe the smart decision for CEO's would be to remember just "who" is their target customer and who are they going to offend with your (CEO) personal view?  Do they truly match those of your company's core beliefs and Corporate code on diversity?

Consider AdWeek data showing women make 73% of the purchasing decisions in the home so maybe what it boils down it is...........before you go an open your pie hole, consider just how many women you're going to alienate.

Hats off to Nabisco Foods and parent company Kraft ($KRFT) for taking on the subject full frontal with their latest Honey Maid commercial and responding to the haters with dignity and class; not politics or religion.  Well played Nabisco, well played indeed.  How much do you want to bet their sales will rise?????

It may not be a popular view but then again, when everyone's on one side, doesn't the market tend to do the opposite of what's expected?  It seems the Elliott Wavers of the blogisphere are calling for gold to head lower here but I stand by my call of last week that the low will hold and we'll see a head-and-shoulders bottom (right shoulder) forming here.  Silver and all of the miners reflect a similar pattern, as posted here at StockBuz last week.  The weekly even resembles a possible double bottom.  Wouldn't that be sweet!  At the very least, down side risk is defined (last weeks low) but with fear in the market and heavy selling continued after the first of the month, utilities (safe haven) are already hitting a new high and I believe flight to precious metals will continue as well.  At least in the near term.  Not a long/hold.

Stumbled across this heart warming clip of Carlos Whitaker jamming in a park.........when a homeless man walks up......and joins right in.  Music touches all people, worldwide. Enjoy!

• 200 million social security numbers breached @ Experian.  US Attorney General to launch probe. (nothing is safe if a credit bureau is hacked)
• The DoJ confirms the FBI is investigating high frequency trading (HFT).  With the way broker/dealers (AMTD, ETFC, SCHW) were slapped heavily last week, it looks like this time it's serious.
• The FBI is asking the public (traders and stock exchange workers) to blow the whistle on HFT.
• The SEC (accustomed to making it's own decisions when it comes to TBTF banks) feels their authority has been undercut and doesn't care for Dodd-Frank or The Financial Stability Oversight Council, who now can make it's own regulations with respect to "systemically important" financial institutions.  Shocking.........because the SEC did such a horrible bang-up job of stopping the last financial crisis. Heritage.org
• Where have all the workers gone?  WSJ takes a look (free access).  If you ask me, there's no incentive with minimum wage so low and those long out of the workforce need to be re-trained, but can't afford it.  Student loans just further place them back in debt, which they haven't forgotten that sting.  btw, whatever happened to vocational training in high school?  Nice job Congress of cutting education spending.  That worked out well, didn't it.  In the meantime, the government is on the hook......

Great visual by CNBC but checkout the 2nd video as well as this topic is REALLY heating up.  Definitely a lot of "passion" out there on the subject of high frequency trading and the supposed level playing field.  What do you think?  Please share

Market strength in safe havens as utilities hit a new high.  Financials and oil/gas holding up but concerns will now be if tech and small cap (continued) selling will spill over into the other indexes (a la 2000).  With fewer and fewer leaders, selling begets selling.  (click image to enlarge) 

• Semiconductors are finally seeing some heavy volume this morning in $SMH.
• David Letterman (67) announced his retirement in 2015 as he has struggled in 3rd place with the much coveted 18-49 age group behind front runner Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel.  Fallon has built himself a comfortable lead and maybe Letterman saw the writing on the wall.  I'd look to buy $CBS stock at lower valuations with eager anticipation of just "who" will be his replacement.  This would be an excellent opportunity for CBS to "update" their boring image (my opinion strictly).  Come on CBS - something with zombies please.  *lol*  

Merely a thought but could the IPO of gamer $KING have been the top for the much heralded Nasdaq?  After $FB $TWTR $ZNGA and now $KING, maybe the market held out just long enough for the $KING IPO before ringing the register.  Maybe the market has decided enough is enough when Farm Heroes pulls a $20/share price and a $6 billion market cap.   Just sayin'.  It's not a "thing".  They don't produce a product.  It's.......a.......website.  

Many in the twittersphere have already commented that this strangely feels like the 2000 top and when growth names like $AMZN and $NFLX can't get any loving, maybe they're right.  Maybe the $KING IPO was the top.  If so, they'll be doomed to the OTC graveyard faster than Jimmy Johns can deliver your lunchtime fare.

This comparison chart from Quartz speaks volumes.  We knew brick and mortar was dying a slow death but man...........

(click image to enlarge)

• Schwab says HFT is a "Cancer" that must be addressed.  "The primary principle behind our markets has always  been that no one should carry an unfair advantage. That simple but fundamental principle is being broken." When big players such as Schwab begin to speak out, one must wonder if this will gain attention now.
• GT sold some AMZN 360/365 bear call spreads.  Still feel that's a HST
• Citibank $C reports$400M in fraudulent loans out of their Mexico subsidiary; lowered profit forecast. 
• Kos is calling bearish head-and-shoulder tops in a few ETFs.  Find out which in our charts section.
• Corporate profits continue to show strength - this for the long term investor Califia Beach Pundit
• Using California as a proxy, enrollment in ACA has been good with the exception of Latinos and to a lesser extent young (healthy) Americans.
• After the close, CME lowered margin rqmts. on crude oil, gold, silver and coal..  Seriously?  As if we need higher gasoline to jeopardize the recovery?  Well, inflation would help speed the recovery.  We shall see.

• For all the worrying about weather impacting job creation, Trim Tabs say real time tax receipt data (allegedly more reliable than BLS data) suggests that the economy has been picking up steam.  24/7WallStreet
• A 8.2% magnitude earthquake overnight off the coast of Chile with a 2 meter tsunami.  Supposedly mining operations have not been affected buy you try to tell that to silver and gold this morning.  They're not buying it (so far)
• Interesting metrics from Flurry on mobile usage today.  GOOG accounts for 18% of time spent by consumers which includes YouTube, while FB is 17%.   Android web browsing is losing market share, going from 20% or usage down to 14%
• Facebook apps continue to hold strength ahead of Google according to Comscore data..  Twitter's app was only used by 22.8% of U.S. smartphone users in January. 77.6% used Facebook's core app, and 27.5% Instagram. Five different Google apps were used by over 40% of users.
• The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) met it's target of 7mil signups but fell very short of the 40% of young, healthy adult subscribers 18-34 needed to keep insurance premiums at bay, says Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.  Expect rates to increase in 2015.  Who's shocked here?

• A minimum wage deal appears to be forming TheConstitutionalConservatives.com
• Why MSFT should beward the $BOX IPO Stratechery
• The truth behind 420 day HuffingtonPost
• China's mfg sector, which focuses on larger state-owned enterprises, edging up to 50.3 in March from 50.2 in February. The HSBC index, which gives more weight to smaller private companies, slipped to 48 from 48.5. HSBC says that its reading confirms the weakness of domestic demand and that it implies 1Q GDP growth of below the annual goal of 7.5%.
• The FBI is now going to launch an investigation into HFT and quote stuffing (that should be interesting)
• Is it odd or disconcerting that Elon Musk said he never expected TSLA to actually succeed..........or am I the only one?
• Not everyone feels the Alibaba IPO is a good thing as companies with dual class shares and unequal voting rights simply allow bad managers to avoid accountability.

Certainly HFT (high frequency trading) takes advantage of minute price discrepancies and can fire off trades faster than your head can spin but is it "rigged"?  Is it illegal? Clearly big funds have an advantage over Joe the Plumber trying to trade his own portfolio.  They, after all, can afford all the bells and whistles, the fancy (more expensive) indicators, gain insider insight and if nothing else, insider information however can you say that's illegal or "rigged"?  Maybe it's more their presence causes concerns over stock market integrity with flash crashes occurring (it seems) on a continual basis now. 

We here at StockBuz strive to trade our ports, whether dollar cost averaging or full trades and do a darn good job at it so collaboration works.  Whether members feel "rigged" is the proper term to use is anyone's guess but right or wrong..............it certainly sells books.

Sometimes it pays to simply remove the distraction of moving averages and let the chart movement speak for itself.  What say you StockBuz?  Are those head-and-shoulders bottoms or no?  Long gold and silver (and miners) with a stop below last weeks low (to your tolerance).  Partial on a breakout, move up stops to b/e, final target equal to distance of head to breakout zone.  Call it flight to safe havens, call it massive short covering/profit taking, .  Who cares.  The risk/reward is irresistible.

For all the political yammering about raising the Federal minimum wage, it would seem that almost 1/2 of the country is already above the Federal level with Connecticut being the first to jump to $10.10 per hour just yesterday.

For all the fear mongering that raising the minimum wage would lead to job loss, the results don't match the scary bedtime story being spread.  To be honest, who really over staffs anyway (unless it's the holidays)?  In my opinion, businesses hire what employees they need to service their customer flow and keep down their bottom line but don't take my word for it. 

Examine San Jose, who raised their minimum wage to $10 an hour a year ago.  The results after one year have not been massive job loss and small business failure.  Rather San Jose has enjoyed a jump in small business creation, job growth and a drop in their unemployment rate.  With more money in the citizens pockets, it definitely seems to be translating into money flowing into local businesses and their economy.

If anything, Washington can become the poster child for raising and linking minimum wage to cost of living, which they did back in 1998.  Since then they've enjoyed job growth at an average 0.8 percent annual pace, 0.3 percentage point above the national rate.  Impressive.

From a stock market point of view, with approx. 40% already paying above $7.25/hr., wouldn't one think the states have already begun to "bake it in"? 

Food for thought.

For better or for worse, it doesn't appear that the Affordable Care Act "Obamacare" is going anywhere but will have to be "fixed" with Amendments down the road.  In the meantime, how are the STATES actually doing in terms of enrollment?  You might be surprised.

Note:  If this video does not display, blame Bloomberg for their (once again) broken code and view the video HERE

• Tesla $TSLA cuts deal with Cuomo allowing them to retain their five stores (as long as they don't open more)  Full Disclosure Kos is long TSLA
• Putin calls Obama stating he has no plans to invade Ukraine further.  Bloomberg
• The S&P lowered it's credit rating on Target $TGT to A from A+ following its weak Q4.  With Spring crawling (albeit slowly) across the nation, will warmer temps finally boost retailers?  Full disclosure Kos is long TGT.
• Drag your kids kicking and screaming if you must, to school  47% of jobs are at high risk of becoming computerized over the next few decades, says a new Oxford University study..  (Do you really want them living with you for the rest of your life?)