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The VIX In An Age Of Major Poltical Risk

Many eyes are watching the VIX as it has not decayed recently and made another new low.  This holding pattern could be due to concerns over Russia possibly invading the Ukraine (who believes them when they say "nyet"), concerns over lackluster earnings, the dreaded "taper", fear of rising rates and a long-in-the-tooth bull run. 

Looking back over recent history, the VIX did a similar basing in the Spring/Summer of 2013 when each month, there seemed to be a "fear" the Fed would announce removing their foot from the QE gas pedal during their FOMC meeting.  18 Italian banks being downgraded just poured more fuel on that short term fire spiking it even higher.  Of course, the market recovered but there seems to be much more going on behind the curtain at this point.

To quote Marvin Zonis from last weeks CBOE Risk Management Conference, "“We are in the age of major, major political risk.”  Not only is taper on people's minds, but larger geo-political concerns are out there as well such as (of course) the Ukraine/Russia, China/Japan tensions, Korean Peninsula, Pakistan, Iran/Israel, nuclear weapons, Egypt/Syria/Turkey, China both politically and economic slowdown, political stagnation, etc.)

Let us also not forget that growth worldwide is lackluster.   For short term investors and traders, this may not be the number one concern on their mind but for long term investors; just where growth will come from remains the big question.............and when.

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Daily Reads

  • Just goes to show you, when it's hated, it can outperform.  Who was the outperformer for your money in Q1?  Bonds baby! Bespoke
  • Today is Option Expiration for some weekly options.  Monday will be end of month and end of quarter.  Redemption selling has been pretty vicious but orderly.  Some feel this is the beginning of a larger correction and that reaction rallies should be sold at the higher level.  Clear rotation out of tech and small caps into fixed income, financials and oil/gas. Kos picked up slivers of her favorites names last night looking for some window dressing.  Keep an eye on USD/JPY for proxy for risk appetite.  To those not so brave, let the market show it's direction before pulling the trigger and even then, be nimble and prepared to bail.
  • 60 minutes will be doing a spot on Elon Musk and TSLA Sunday evening.
  • Early on, there's been market chatter of further easing coming out of Japan and Fed's Evans talking to reporters that he feels rates won't be increased until second 1/2 of 2015. Says holding off on hikes until 2016 could be appropriate given the state of the economy.  Market likes both and is trying to squeeze the shorts.....but will it hold?  Many don't believe so.
  • Kos bought slivers of TSLA, AMZN, FB, FEYE, LNKD, ILMN, LULU, QCOM for a quick scalp.  Shorted STX
  • Big day for $AA (which Kos is long as a drawer stock) as a  UK Court ruling threw LME warehouse reform plans on ice. The High Court in London ruled in favor of Russian aluminum producer Rusal, which feared prices of its products would suffer from the LME's efforts, and that the consultation process had been unfair. LME reforms designed to make owners of warehouses in the exchange's global network deliver metal more quickly to consumers had been due to take effect on April 1.
  • On today's move, @StevenPlace says "sell a crapton of put spreads on GOOG NFLX BIDU FB and so on, buy some OTM put calendars on QQQ. You're welcome."
  • Sadiq's broker is saying to watch Japanese bonds.  The "widowmaker" (like UNG) may setup for a turnaround soon.
  • Out of over 800 professions, BLS projects this one to grow the fastest of all.............home healthcare workers.....and they want Union benefits.  All eyes on the Supreme Court and what impact this would have on certain healthcare stocks.
  • The FTC is going after big pharma for delaying shipments of generic drugs vs name brand CNBC
  • 64% of IPO's that went public in 2013 did so with no earnings.  Is this possibly a good thing?  Are we in a IPO bubble?

 

 

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Daily Reads

  • Life intervenes today so I'm limited on my reading time but will add a few as I can
  • The bearish $2 BILLION dollar bet that spooked the market.
  • Work vs. Welfare.  In some states, you're better off being on Welfare, which is tax free by the way, than working.  While to many, this is an argument to lower Welfare benefits, to me it screams that the minimum wage should be raised and tied to the cost of living.  Welfare wasn't designed to be a "living wage" but Corporations like MCD and WEN take advantage of the system; thus boosting their bottom line (yes, which we love) BUT it costs the taxpayer unnecessary millions each year.  Something has to give.
  • Glenn Beck is out with a new pos video, touting that we are approaching the brink of World War III (it couldn't be more fear mongering to boost his ratings, could it?  After all, he doesn't have to be accurate to ruffle feathers.  For example he says that Russia and China are NOW trading in the Yuan in a dastardly plot (yes it's new!  No, it's not Glenn) to have the Yuan take over at the world's reserve currency.  Um, Mr. Beck, they've been doing that for a number of years now and no, it is NOT something new.  Additionally, the last time looked, China wasn't viewed as being an especially trustworthy country either.  Hmmmm.  Do you think global leaders will vote for them to takeover as world reserve currency holder?  Gee, that's a toughie.  I won't even go further as to why his latest video is ridiculous (to the point I'm not sharing it here) and how far he has become a "not" credible source to follow but if you stumble across it, I'd love to have your viewpoint on this trash prediction

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Why Is No One In The Military Held Accountable

If you were a Branch Manager as I was and your Branch continuously lost money, you'd be talked to and given stiff warning.  Eventually demotion was in order, if not completely being fired.

If you run a department and it's wasting thousands, tens of thousands, would you keep your job?

If you're a General, do you ever lose your stars?  Are they ever slapped down to a Sergeant Major or Lieutenant for looking the other way as BILLIONS fly by?

What if there are Millions, no, Billions being wasted every year?  Is no one held accountable?  Does no one have the power to say "that's enough - no more"?  The bookkeepers must be a total joke.  We have the time and manpower to investigate Benghazi and by all means, let's introduce a Bill that would prevent a custodial parent from dating or having sex without a Court order until a divorce is final (honest to God) yet no Congressional hearing on the enormous waste in Military spending.  No one slapped.  No one demoted.  No one fired.  Everyone looks the other (American) way while cuts are made each year to our Veterans' retirement and compensation and the waste continues unfettered.

Just like our TBTF banks, the CEO's get away unscathed.  Business continues as usual as "underlings" take the hit.  It's wrong and we all know it.

The latest episode of Vice was a jaw dropper.  All in all, I don't think I've ever seen a bad episode of Vice but this amazing story of waste is just sickening.  You see, after any given military conflict or War, the US has formed a pattern of helping to "re-build" what they destroyed via infrastructure, buildings, schools and even power grids.  In Afghanistan, the same is occurring today. 

  • We built a power plant which doesn't run and won't run.......because it's too expensive.  Electricity is brought in from neighboring countries and who is there to collect the electric bill each month?  In many areas..........the Taliban (thank you US government for free money).
  • Locals take parts such as engines, tires, etc. and cut them with torches so they must be junked.  Contractors immediately place orders for replacements............which will also be cut and sent to the junkyard and the cycle repeats.  Who buys these parts (or owns the junkyard)?  The Taliban (thank you US government for supplying us with parts we need).
  • btw you've gotta love being a Military Contractor.  What other business receives a constant order of replacement parts on a regular basis?  ca'ching!
  • US paid for airplanes and helicopters which can't be flown and lie rusting away........because they do not have pilots with the skill to fly them or mechanics to fix them.
  • Over 9000 IEDs (improvised explosive devices) found just within the last six (6) months but are they destroyed?  Can anyone get their hands on them?  Sure looks like it.

Below is a brief three minute outline of Vice's latest episode on Military waste in Afghanistan.  If you don't watch HBO, I certainly recommend you do......and be prepare to be outraged.

 

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Daily Reads

  • AAPL's iPhone6 release expected late Summer, early Fall. Marketwatch
  • 44 stocks on Morgan Stanley's radar as take over candidates
  • Yellen's gaffe that wasn't. CNBC
  • How airlines are boosting their bottom line amid higher fuel costs; with add-on fees.  Click on graphic right to enlarge.
  • China slaps Nu Skin ($NUS) on the wrist, fining them $500k for misleading consumers.  Market was anticipating a much heavier fine and impact on EPS.  (booyah!  Kos is long)  AsiaOne
  • AAPL in talks with CMCSA over streaming-tv service. WSJ
  • CSCO pledges to invest $1 Billion to build out cloud infrastructure.  Better late than never I suppose.  WSJ Blog
  • Beneath our cities, a tangle of decaying gas pipe.  {What to look forward to with Keystone in 50 years}  NYTimes

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Why Foreign IPOs Choose US Exchanges

Looser corporate-governance standards are luring foreign companies to U.S. markets, a development causing concern among some large investors.

Overseas companies like Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. have recently opted to list their shares in New York rather than in their home markets or on other international exchanges, in part because the U.S. in some respects is more lenient, people familiar with the matter say.

Unlike venues in London and Hong Kong, their main rivals in the race for global listings, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market allow corporate insiders who collectively own less than half their companies' stock to exercise control through dual-share structures and other means. In addition, many foreign companies are exempted from some of the disclosure requirements imposed on U.S. corporations.

"If you're looking to do dual-class, the U.S. is where you can do that," said Alex Cohen, a former Securities and Exchange Commission official who is now a partner at law firm Latham & Watkins LLP. "That's certainly a draw for some companies."

So far this year, at least 15 foreign companies have filed papers in preparation for initial public offerings in the U.S., according to a search of securities filings, with most likely to trade on Nasdaq or the NYSE. That puts 2014 on track to be the busiest year for such filings since at least 1996—though the increase in activity comes amid a broader pickup in IPOs, with firms listing at the fastest rate in years.

The U.S. exchanges are eager to land foreign listings because of the fees and prestige they bring, and to bolster the ranks of traded companies, which have slumped in recent years. The total number of firms listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq fell by 38% between 1997 and 2013, to 5,008, according to the World Federation of Exchanges.

The two U.S. exchanges allow insiders to exercise control through mechanisms such as separate classes of shares that carry extra votes. These setups are just one of a number of governance provisions allowed in the U.S. that are effectively forbidden on foreign stock exchanges including Hong Kong's, where the people familiar with the matter say Alibaba had considered listing. And, unlike many Asian exchanges, those in the U.S. don't insist companies be profitable when they go public. The U.S. markets are desirable for other reasons, too, including deep pools of investor cash.

"We have markets with a high degree of compliance, transparency, and great liquidity," said Ed Knight, general counsel and chief regulatory officer of Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. NDAQ +0.13% "That is the value proposition we put before companies."

Representatives for NYSE, which is owned by IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc., ICE +0.22% and the SEC, which oversees the exchanges, declined to comment.

Alibaba won't have a dual-class share structure. Still, a small group of company insiders who collectively own less than 50% of the company will retain the right to nominate a majority of board members once the firm goes public, according to the people familiar with the matter. Other Chinese companies are bringing dual-class setups to New York. Weibo Corp., China's version of Twitter, and Alibaba rival JD.com Inc. have both filed for U.S. IPOs this year and plan to issue so-called supervoting stock for certain shareholders, according to regulatory filings.

Indeed, at all but one of the nine Chinese companies that went public in the U.S. last year, insiders have influence beyond their economic stakes, according to a recent study by law firm Ropes & Gray LLP.

But many U.S. investors oppose these setups, which they say make it harder for shareholders to hold boards accountable.

"These structures just are not in the interests of public investors," said Michael McCauley of the Florida State Board of Administration, which manages about $87 billion in stocks. "It's a race to the bottom."

The Council of Institutional Investors, a trade group whose members oversee some $3 trillion in assets, has pressured Nasdaq and the NYSE in recent years to stop allowing dual-class structures. And the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the country's biggest state pension fund, with $285 billion in assets, has said it is considering boycotting IPOs that don't give equal voting rights to all shareholders.

Investor demand for shares of fast-growing companies, particularly in the tech sector, has emboldened their founders, says Paul W. Boltz Jr. , a Ropes & Gray lawyer in Hong Kong. "With the resurgence of interest among investors in Chinese tech companies, management are willing to push the envelope on governance," he says.

The ability to exert outsize influence is prized by many corporate insiders, in part because it helps them fend off hostile takeovers and activist investors. Historically, dual-class structures have been used by family-owned companies like Ford Motor Co. F -0.51% and News Corp, NWSA +0.40% which owns The Wall Street Journal. Such arrangements can help family owners maintain control as they bring in new shareholders. In recent years, dual-class structures have become popular among startup tech companies such as Facebook Inc. FB +0.40%

Representatives for Ford, News Corp and Facebook declined to comment.

The exchanges' differing standards are in part rooted in differences between investor bases in the U.S. and in other countries, lawyers say: The U.S. requires companies to be transparent about their business and governance models but leaves the final investment decision to shareholders, who are often sophisticated fund managers. In markets with a high proportion of individual investors, like Hong Kong, stock exchanges have taken a more activist approach to governance, lawyers say.

In an extra sweetener, some foreign companies are allowed to forgo certain requirements that apply to U.S. companies. Firms that qualify for the so-called "foreign private issuer" exemption can, for example, file earnings statements twice a year rather than quarterly, which can cut compliance costs and smooth out destabilizing swings in their stock prices. They also don't have to report when their executives buy or sell stock, as public U.S. companies do.

Weibo and JD.com have said they will qualify as foreign-private issuers, as will King Digital Entertainment PLC, the Anglo-Swedish maker of the "Candy Crush Saga" videogame, a firm set to go public in late March. These companies will still have to comply with many U.S. disclosure and other rules, including provisions adopted after the Enron and WorldCom scandals of the early 2000s.

Source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304026304579449702968537802?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304026304579449702968537802.html

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Weekend Reads

  • Tensions continue to rise as Russian troops grow at Ukraine's border. Bloomberg
  • Latest CEO survey shows geopolitical risks along with China slowdown as chief concerns McKinsey survey results
  • Foreign companies are finding it more advantageous to list in the U.S. rather than overseas markets. Here's why (WSJ signup req'd or go to Google and perform a search for the free viewing).  When's the last time you ever heard we have less regulation!  *lol*
  • Snowden released documents that the NSA, in a battle for network data supremacy, spied extensively on the Chinese government and smart phone maker Huawei in what was called Operation "Shotgiant".  Ooooh baby, this won't go over well with our Foreign Relations Department.

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WMT Scraping The Bottom

Seriously?  You're a wholesale buyer for Walmart and this is what you come up with?  As an added perk it even includes peanuts and corn!  Wow, what a bargain not to mention a skill builder for our kids.  Truly some of the patrons WMT are, if anything, pure entertainment but now are their products are becoming as ludicrous as the 400 lb. man wearing a thong in public?  Come on now......

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Daily Reads

  • The SEC is investigating electronic bonds prices and why some are hidden from view.  Are customers truly receiving "best price"?
  • Hands down the best explanation or deciphering I have seen on Fed policy, Yellen's statement and QE taper. (hat tip GT) CWS Market Review
  • Marked weakness continues in biotech and technology names.  Rotation into financials and oil&gas names?  We think so.
  • With hopes for SGR (Sustainable Growth Rate) reform dashed, physicians prepare for a 24% pay cut effective April 1, 2014.
  • Bank stress tests are out and worst case scenario?  A mere $501 Billion in losses to the Fed.  What could go wrong?  They can always file Bankruptcy like everyone else.  *lol*
  • Take Yahoo, minus out it's stake in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan and what's left.............is worthless. Ritholtz (click to enlarge image)
  • If you do NOT feel the biotech bubble has burst and you merely feel this is some profit taking and rotation into other sectors, here's a list of the biggest biotech losers to ponder buying the dip.  (ZeroHedge image)

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Seriously what is going on here?  A 12th banker leaps to his death in another apparent suicide.  People it's just a job!  If your boss wants you to do something illegal or if you're under too much pressure, it's within your power to change things!  Change jobs or change fields completely.
  • Having fun with the interactive from Bloomberg on billionaires, what they invest in, who inherited their wealth vs. self made, etc.  I just want to know how many are located in Dallas and can a old lady get a hook up?  *lol*
  • Robotic firemen?  Yes, says the Navy Marshable
  • Riddle me this: What caped crusader may take up the roll where Ashton Kutcher flopped?   Yes, it's Christian Bale as David Fincher's (Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) and my favorite Alan Sorkin's (Creator of 2012's hit The Newsroom) favorite choice as Steve Jobs in The Wrap, *if* they can just convince the much sought after actor to give the nod.

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Admin

Banks Breathe A Sigh Of Relief

While the market continues to digest yesterdays' comments from new Fed Chairwoman Janice Yellen that rates will begin to rise possibly as early as six months after tapering is complete (mid-2015 rather than late 2015), banks are definitely yelling pahtay with big gains across the financial sector today.

Even $C (who I normally detest) is attempting to breakout of a beautiful double bottom pattern. 

Like it or not, banks will be more willing to lend in a rising rate environment and let's face it; it's tough to make a buck when you're lending at 3%.  I would imagine this will be good for broker/dealers as well although not shown here.  Now if only we could get Congress to do away with that pesky transaction tax debate.  Life would be wonderful.

Full disclosure; I'm long JPM and loving today's action.

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Happy "Yellen" Day as the market hopes todays FOMC minutes will reveal Janet Yellen removing the language that a rise in interest rates will be tied to a 6.5% unemployment rate.  After all, what's better than cheap money during a slow recovery?  If she does not, watch for a spike in volatility.   Reuters
  • Japanese game giant Sony has unveiled a prototype virtual-reality headset called "Project Morpheus" for the PlayStation 4 that would immerse players in the games they are playing. Having already sold 6M PS4 units, one only has to wonder: what say you MSFT? 
  • Wish to get back and the butthead who scammed you?  How about 29,305 texts of Shakespeare?  A big hat tip Sadiq because this revenge is priceless
  • Former Labor Secretary tells reader don't buy the "paid what you're worth" myth. Salon
  • $C fined for short selling before and IPO was even released. Now come on, whatever happened to free markets? lol  Marketwatch
  • Like Washington, San Jose raised their minimum wage just one year ago.  What followed will amaze (and it's good)
  • 42,000 to build, yet only 50 to operate.  The facts about the Keystone pipeline.

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • TBTF banks are not happy with a proposed financial tax endorsed by GOP lawmaker David Camp.  $GS, who was in discussions to hold a fundraiser for the National Republican Congressional Committee, recently opted not to move forward because of concerns about Mr. Camp's bank-tax proposal.  Could this be why financials have not been participating lately?  WSJ   Considering the amount of support given by financial institutions over the years, one can only imagine the pressure being applied by lobbyists.
      In a nutshell, Camp's proposed the tax on large financial institutions in part because it would offset the lower borrowing costs they receive from a perceived government backstop.  Naysayers immediately fired back stating that such a tax would hurt consumers by making credit less available and more costly, stifle business growth, and cost jobs.  Let the fear mongering begin.
  • At a surprise appearance via satellite on a recent TED Talk, Edward Snowden said just wait, the larger revelation is yet to come.  Seriously?!  Mashable
  • Your next new hire could come from a mobile app.  The shift in recruiting technology Mashable

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Daily Reads

  • NYC trader becomes 11th to commit suicide in 2014.
  • Orders for new aircraft are at record setting levels.  Does this mean airline industry consolidation is over and will the anticipated energy efficiency savings translate into lower airfares ahead?
  • Hot-n-toasty sandwich maker Quiznos follows Sbarro into Bankruptcy court seeking re-organizaiton. Bloomberg
  • Major US indicies need to bounce and achieve a new high to nullify the megaphones building.  The Dow did not achieve a new high following the others which is of note.
  • StockTradersAlmanac feels there are signs of a market top.  When everyone is bullish, who's left to come in off the sidelines and buy? 

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Daily Reads

  • With the increase in US oil (hello Bakken), shipping black gold by rail has caused backlog in shipments of other goods across all industries forcing rail companies to scramble to expand.  The biggest loser: shippers.  Sounds like more promo for Keystone to be approved WSJ
  • Are you guilty or have you been there, done that?  Take a different view of those around you in the service industry and how you/we view and interact with them.  An open letter to Paul Ryan on poverty Salon
  • Last night after the close, CME lowered margin requirements for Brent and WTI crude oil futures.
  • Members here at StockBuz have been playing precious metals and miners; gold, silver, GDXJ (junior miners).  Investing.com has noticed the move off of the lows as well.
  • The "death spiral states" talk of Democratic states leading in number of Welfare recipients (shockingly) distorts the full truth.  What else will the Koch brothers come up with next?  Factcheck.org
  • China slowing is the biggest threat to growth currently, say 27 out of 49 of economists, as the worlds 2nd largest economy would affect all areas of the globe.  "There are real financial instabilities in China that pose the biggest downside risk to the global outlook," said Julia Coronado of BNP Paribas. [WSJ]   Add to this their already perilous financial system with shadow banking complications and housing bubble values (written about here) and you have a recipe for further stress as Chinese government officials attempt to reign in or tighten their lending.  Remember when GE couldn't get access to credit for their day-to-day operations?  Let's hope we don't see a repeat of the '07 meltdown in China.

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Don't tell Twitter but Women dominate social media (Infographic)
  • Rent vs Buy.  Based on tax bracket, what areas are cheaper to rent? Trulia interactive Map
  • Quite a few bearish engulfing charts in the major Spyder ETFs.  If you're not hedged you should be. Grid charts
  • 3D Systems ($DDD) teams up with the White House and D.O.D. to provide access for the mfg. industry to the most advanced design.
  • Where were you 30 years ago today when the first cell phones went on sale for the deeply discounted price of $4,000?  *lol* 

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Admin

64% Of Americans Now Support Obamacare

Maybe it's backfiring.  Maybe those who had pre-existing conditions accepted that having coverage was worth the higher price versus no coverage at all.  Add in those with lower income levels who had no insurance previously.  A big bump.  Maybe all the foot stomping over website glitches (which is common with new websites folks),  fear mongering of information security, "death panels" and contraception coverage from the angel-believing right are being drowned out.  

A new survey shows 64% of Americans now back ACA, of course slight revisions being supported as well but wasn't that expected?  No major law goes on the books without tweaks and revisions but this is actually good news if you're long certain healthcare names whose price has benefited the last few years. 

Of course maybe Bloomberg's survey is inaccurate.  Stranger things have happened but MSM (main stream media) would have you believe ACA (Obamacare) is a nightmare and hated nationwide.  Maybe, just maybe, MSM is feeding us what their Corporate owners want us to see and maybe, just maybe, their nose is growing.

Read the survey details at Bloomberg

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Admin

Bitchin' Like Maude

I've been moving recently; hence no posts, charts, etc.  More exactly my son wished to get his own place (yay!) and with my lease expiring, I eyed a different unit with a much larger living area, kitchen and bedroom.  I've always wanted a loft and here was my opportunity.  The timing couldn't be more perfect with cool weather cooperating.   What was not perfect was the service of uHaul ($UHAL) when it came to accessing a storage area, or that of Time Warner Cable ($TWC) who (of course) assured me I'd have live service.  It's not rocket science guys.  We're not asking you to solve world hunger nor come up with a cure for Cancer.  Merely have the codes entered into the computer so one can access their storage unti and check the friggin' cable lines like a good little boy.  Your apologies are worthless.  Please allow me to raise an eyebrow and tell you off with a scathing rant that'll make your eyes water and give you nightmares for years in your little, crappy office with a space heater and shitty desk fan; then apologize later and blame it on my meds. 

I'm getting too old for this crap and I certainly should know better than to have faith in service that actually delivers.  I'd short them both to infinity and hire lobbyists to help me destroy them in Congress............if I had Buffett's money.

Needless to say I've missed several days of charting and trades, I'm sore in places I forget existed and as my daughter put it "Mom, you're crankier than Maude on the rag". 

Why don't they deliver on their promises?  Call Centers follow up to see if you wish a reservation.  Why don't they call to see if the service if working?   Why, oh why don't they have a service that can pack everything (and unpack) for me outside of Beverly Hills?  Maybe I'm learning why some elderly (like Maude) are so cranky.  Because people suck.  Next time they can carry me out feet first. 

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