What We're Reading

The National Federation of Retailers is out with some bad news about Black Friday – it sucked.  Some superlatives via WSJ:

“Shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year.”

“the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend declined by 5.2% to 134 million, from 141 million last year.”

“Total spending from Thursday through Sunday sank 11% from a year earlier to $50.9 billion”

The excuses you’ll hear will range from the warm weather in the Northeast to the protests to the late scheduling of Hanukkah this year to the whole “consumers are smart enough to wait til closer to Christmas”.  My own take is that online is going to be big all month long and traditional shopping patterns are null and void. There’s nothing important about Black Friday to most consumers anymore. They know the deals will be endless and often.

Courtesy of ReformedBroker

Kos here - My other thought is that it's tough to spend a lot on Christmas when you're earning minimu

Oil production in North America is booming, crude oil today hitting new 4-year lows, and it is now beginning to have a huge impact on global hydrocarbon markets. In fact, some believe that the U.S. will eventually overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest producer of the key commodity, with some calling for the surge to happen by the end of the decade and OPEC is left if in a precarious situation.  If they cut production, prices may rise but they also risk losing customers to another provider (the U.S. or Russia).  If they do not cut production, prices will likely continue to fall due to excess capacity worldwide. 

This push towards energy self-sufficiency is largely thanks to the combination of fracking and oil shale, as previously unobtainable supplies are now being unlocked with relative ease. The amounts are so impressive that the International Energy Agency last year declared the production surge as a ‘supply shock’ that is causing ‘ripple effects through all aspect

The right shoulder of a possible head-and-shoulders top in CSIQ seems to have formed, rebuffed at the 200d with a dropping 20d SMA (a sign of sellers there).  Risk is defined with a cover alert (I don't use stops) above this weeks high.  (click chart to enlarge)

Based on weak economic conditions both here and abroad, I don't see solar sales taking off anytime soon......without further government subsidies.  Even then consider stagnating wages and new jobs being at the high and low end of the spectrum, I just don't see a catalyst for these names to go higher at this juncture.

They're already ridiculously cheap right now.  Can you get any cheaper than free?

Already heavily shorted, your broker may have to track down shares to short - or buy puts and dump/take the hit above the right shoulder.

Last week it was amazing to witness entire expressways shut down during the Hong Kong protests.  Something which was not surprisingly given little attention by our "keep the advertisers happy at all costs" mainstream media.  *cough cough*  Thank goodness for technology with this amazing drone footage and social media for 'getting it out there'.  Afterwards I decided to take a further look into the area of investing in drone (and drone component) manufacturers.

I've thrown this together, running on battery only and no internet after having lost power due to a strong storm rolling through the region.  Hey, it's a start, right?

Face it America.  It’s only a matter of time before drone applications become commonplace and drones are buzzing past our homes like flies.  Imagine the possibilities.  Packages, mail, medical supplies, internet and wireless signals to remote or under served areas, news coverage, spraying fields with pesticides, no more lost hikers (or drivers for that matte

China traders on margin accounts is a thought both wildly exciting, yet utterly terrifying at the same time.  Even more so in the wake of $10 billion in fraudulent currency trades discovered just last week. 

Chinese markets have had a long standing reputation as being nothing more than unmonitored casinos plagued with corruption and insider trading.  What could possibly go wrong?

According to the WSJ, the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges have published an overhaul of rules governing a new trading link that will open China's tightly held capital markets to the investing public, ahead of a launch that could take place as early as end of October.

The Chinese government has vowed to encourage further capital flow and open the country’s markets to international investors and conceded previously that numerous reforms would have to take place.  Such reforms risk destabilizing its economy, which is still veiled by strict capital controls.  Therefore the government has been implementin

When Jack Ma founded the Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba in 1999, one of his stated goals was to build a company that will last for at least 102 years so that it would span from the 20th to the 22nd centuries. Now with products, technology and marketing -- what Alibaba has done is a great combination of all three.

Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba ($BABA) is expected to begin an eagerly awaited roadshow for what could be the largest ever IPO early in the week of September 8, and its shares could list as soon as September 18 or 19, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Expected to raise about $20bn when it lists on the NYSE rivaling the Agricultural Bank of China’s $22.1bn IPO from July 2010, currently the largest on record.

Alibaba’s ability to make a transition to mobile has been a focus of analysts and investors as China’s tech groups square off for customers glued to smartphones. Last week, the company announced a surge in mobile revenues for the second quarter.

A tenf

Google certainly looks to be dominating the mobile playing field.  Good for Google or does this just open the door to fresh startups and current disruptors to look to take market share?  (more below)

Some key questions to be answered in this area include:

• How fast has mobile app usage been growing?
• How often are people using apps on each device?
• What percentage of time are consumers spending on their top apps?
• How do iOS users differ from Android users demographically and behaviorally?
• Which mobile app content categories are we spending most of our time consuming?
• How do the top apps compare in different age segments?

Download the full report at Comscore

If the Old Farmers Almanac is even semi accurate, it looks as though it's going to be another nasty Winter - colder than last year (!) ahead thanks to the sun's activity.  According to this video (below) this forecast is nothing to shake a stick at as allegedly they have an 80% accuracy but only time will tell. 

Of course, the folks back home in Chicago will immediately roll their eyes and sigh in pure disgust and they have the right to after the "polar vortex" that rolled through the area last January.  Not only were schools shut and streets impassable but even expressways, covered with salt as fast as they could spread it, froze and brought commuters and semis to a stand still.  Supplies were cutoff across the nation and insurers definitely had to have felt the pain.

Seems I relocated to Texas just in the nick of time!  While we still get a few snow days down here below the 40th parallel North (even a inch of snow here paralyzes drivers and shuts down schools), the first thing that j

No, not the one from April 2010 whose name no one could pronounce (Eyjafjallajokull) however a larger one (Bardarbunga) may now be heating up (pardon the pun).

In what the Meteorological Office describes as an "intense earthquake swarm," scientists registered some 2,600 earthquakes between early Saturday morning and Monday evening.

And after the strongest earthquake since 1996 was measured in the area early Monday, an orange aviation alert was posted (2nd highest alert) by Icelandic authorities -- indicating "heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption."

In 2010 the Eyjafjallajokull eruption forced the cancellation and diversion of thousands of flights per day at the peak of the problem due to ash that can damage a plane's delicate engines, while the ventilation holes can become clogged and stall the aircraft.  Over 10 million travellers were stranded around the world, waiting for winds to shift.

"It was causing problems for millions of passengers, the airli

Having felt that BDI had bottomed and recommended accumulation here, here and here it appears that $BDI came back and tested prior breakout support.  Certainly a not unexpected move.  Now, breaking out of a falling wedge, I would imaging that lower area to be tested once more where I will add further to my position in the belief that the bottom is still in and they're finally able to increase rates.

• Drybulk shipping rates continue to move higher, adding to last week's run as iron ore shipments out of Brazil and Australia pick up.
• On Friday, drybulk rates as measured by the Baltic Dry Index rose 7.7%, capping a 31% gain for the week driven by strength across the board but mainly in Capesize and Panamax rates.
• After beginning its ascent on July 23, the BDI has jumped 40%, rising in every session except one.
• Last week, Capesize rates surged 65% to $15,561/day, Panamax rates climbed 29% to $6,397/day, and Supramax rates added 9% to $9,170/day. (courtesy of S/A)

Full disclo

As the WSJ highlights, The U.S. airline industry's newfound health is breeding something not seen in years: a flock of startups.

Two fledgling carriers already have taken off. One is a reincarnation of the old People Express Airlines, a discounter that folded in 1987. The other is a French all-business-class carrier, plying the Paris-to-Newark, N.J., route.

Others are still in various stages of incubation, hoping to raise sufficient funds and receive government clearance to take wing.

Entrepreneurs see opportunity in the service cuts—a side effect of years of restructuring and consolidation—that have helped the U.S. airline industry attain its highest profit margins since the late 1990s. Today four big carriers control some 82% of domestic capacity.

Unfortunately, airline startups all share an ill-founded optimism, some analysts say—that they can defy the odds in an industry that has experienced 77 bankruptcies and multiple liquidations in the U.S. alone in the past 20 years

Americans lust for things they cannot afford continues as credit usage has rebounded since the height of the credit crisis however, with the Fed's current zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the ongoing use of credit is not necessarily a thing for concern.

After all, if you were able to refinance your home from 6% down to 3%, that's a good thing, right?  Ditto for your credit cards which may have been 9.9% prior to 2008 and now down at much lower levels.  Indeed ZIRP has aided corporations and individuals to grab historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to restructure existing debt and issue new debt for acquisitions for almost nothing.

In that respect, I guess Obama's statement "we're much better off than we were" would ring true here.

What does bother me, however, is the enormous recovery and usage of subprime lending.  Those loans for many autos, payday loans, title loans and credit cards for those with less than a pristine credit FICO score.

While working in mortgage banking, w

For Twitter and Facebook, the two principal combatants in the world of social media, e-commerce is emerging as the newest battleground.  One would think that Amazon's June unveiling of it's Fire phone should be pushing the transition even faster.

Twitter announced on Thursday that it had agreed to acquire CardSpring, a mobile payments infrastructure company that allows merchants to offer deals to consumers that can be loaded onto to their credit cards. When the card is used to pay at the store, the coupon is automatically applied.

CardSpring advertises itself as a company that makes it easy for developers to link digital applications to credit or debit cards.

For Twitter, the potential uses are obvious: If you see a retailer’s tweet promoting a particular product and want to get the deal, you might soon be able to click a button or send a reply to simply add the discount to a stored credit card — without leaving Twitter’s site or firing up another app. For the last couple of years, T

The Obama administration has approved the use of sonic cannons to explore for oil and gas off the Eastern Shore using seismic survey ships which tow airguns that emit underwater explosions over thousands of miles along the coast.  These blast results would transform into a survey of the seabed floor to reveal potential drill sites.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management on Friday formally approved guidelines for using air cannons along the Eastern seaboard in the Atlantic Ocean from Florida to Delaware.  Energy companies could buy new oil and gas leases and begin drilling in 2018 if they find profitable reserves.

The guidelines are meant to protect endangered whales and other creatures from the loud noises and increased vessel traffic, but the government's environmental impact study estimates that more than 138,000 sea creatures could be harmed.

The decision opens an area of the Eastern Seaboard larger than two California's to exploration for the first time in decades, jeopardizing (

If you're one of the many waiting for Alibaba's IPO, you may wish to take a look at the latest recommendation from U.S. regulators when it comes to investing in Chinese names.

In May 2014, Alibaba, China’s leading e-commerce website, filed for a U.S.-based initial public offering (IPO) in what is expected to be one of the largest in U.S. history. The highly anticipated IPO will be just one in a recent wave of Chinese Internet companies launching IPOs in the United States. The trend has raised some misgivings among U.S. regulators about the corporate structures of these companies. To bypass Chinese government restrictions on foreign investment in the Internet sector, Chinese Internet companies use a complex and highly risky mechanism known as a Variable Interest Entity (VIE).

Read the FULL report

Like anything else, it will take more widespread usage and increased competition for pricing to drop, but I would install these in a heartbeat if/when the cost became more reasonable.  idk about anyone else but my utility bill is ridiculous at this point.

Dawn Kurry of Biz Journals writes Solar shingles system comes online in Cary North Carolina. Don Hyatt is the first person in the research triangle, and maybe in the whole state, to install the new DOW solar shingles on his home.

Don Hyatt says people have been stopping by his house to admire the shiny new roof.
"I've been waiting for them to become available in North Carolina," Hyatt says. "It's not like solar panels, which have the big blue rectangles that stick up above everything else and are obtrusive looking. These blend in nicely."

Sun Dollar Energy of Raleigh, owned by Dan Lezama, installed shingles on the roof of a home which double as solar panels. ... “It’s a building integrated PV (photo-voltaic) module,” explains Lezama

At its E3 press conference, Sony just announced that the PlayStation TV game console (known as the PlayStation Vita TV abroad) is coming to the United States and Canada this fall.

The PlayStation TV will come by itself for $99 (you’ll have to bring your own controller) or in a $139 bundle that comes with a DualShock Controller, a memory card to store downloaded games on, and a copy of the Lego Movie video game.

The console will be compatible with many of the games currently available on the PlayStation Vita, Sony’s portable game console. Those will be for available for download on the PlayStation store.

PlayStation TV owners will also be able to log in to PlayStation Now, Sony’s upcoming Netflix-like service that lets people “stream” games from the cloud. The service will have approximately 100 PlayStation 3 titles available as well as more than 20 free games made specifically for PlayStation Now.

Gamers with a PlayStation 4 in their home will also have the ability to stream games fro

From a chart point of view, there's a definite divergence in performance in U.S. solar stocks vs. their Chinese competitors.   Forget the cold war; is a trade war heating up with China?  Charts don't lie - people do.  Full disclosure StockBuz recommended long FSLR in 2013.

The United States slapped new import duties on solar panels and other related products from China on Tuesday after the Commerce department ruled they were produced using Chinese government subsidies, potentially inflaming trade tensions between the two countries.

The U.S. arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld AG filed a petition complaining that Chinese manufacturers are sidestepping duties imposed in 2012 by shifting production of the cells used to make their panels to Taiwan and continuing to flood the U.S. market with cheap products.

The new complaint seeks to close that loophole by extending import duties to also cover panels made with parts from Taiwan.

In a preliminary determination, the Commerce de

The chart says it all.  I will be adding to my shipping drawer stock $NAT here.  Maybe the shipping index truly has been an indicator of true global (low) demand coupled with an oversupply of ships and heavy debt but charts do not lie.  People do.  Funds should be adding to their positions down at this test of prior breakout support.  We may build a long base, which is healthy.  Add at the lows.  I will still hold my (alert) stop comfortably below the 2012 low (not by a few pennies either).  They may even try to shake out weak hands by taking out that low before reversing however I'm undaunted.  Come on, bring it.  I'll buy more at these prices as global economies begin to heal and M&A should pick up in this beaten up sector.

Seasonal demand is just what it sounds like.  What seasons certain things see higher demand such as natural gas for A/C and heating or gold for jewelry manufacturing and sales.  With that in mind I thought I'd flip through our Seasonal Charts for hints of possible trades here and in the months approaching.  My unscientific belief has been that larger players begin to buy long futures contracts before the season hits so I begin to watch for divergences and support in charts.  Click on the charts below for a better view.  Let's take a look:

Consumer Staples Which can be traded via $XLP or one of it's components are items which consumers feel they cannot do without.  They're considered non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing (or not performing).  Think diapers $KMB, personal hygiene $PG, discounters like $WMT, beverages such as $KO, cigarettes $MO and $PM, pharmacies such as $WAG and $CVS.  There are many other names, b