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ICI Mutual Fund And Money Market Statistics

Carl Swenlin @ Decision Point comes up with some interesting stats at times. Your thoughts and comments below are encouraged.

The Investment Company Institute (ici.org) compiles statistics on mutual funds and publishes them monthly. (There is a one month delay between the end of the month being reported and publication.) Decision Point has been collecting these data for almost five years, and we finally have enough to start charting it. Amounts shown on the charts are in billions.

The bottom panel on the first chart shows the percentage of of mutual fund assets held in cash. A low percentage of cash indicates that fund managers are bullish on stocks and do not believe they will need much cash to meet redemptions, as would be the case if stock prices were to fall. The current percentage (3.4%) is lower than what it was near the top of the last bull market. I would consider that to be bearish for stocks.

Chart

The next chart shows assets in money market funds. What stands out to me is that, while money market assets have declined since the 2009 market bottom, they have not dropped to the levels seen during the bull market in 2005 and 2006. I interpret this as evidence of investors' reluctance to make a robust commitment to stocks, in spite of a substantial advance from the bear market lows.

Chart

Bottom Line: We seem to be getting mixed signals from the mutual fund assets data. The low percentage of cash held by fund managers is bearish for stocks; whereas, the level of money market fund assets shows plenty of cash on the sidelines which could be used to feed a substantial advance in stocks. On the other hand, perhaps the relatively high money market levels indicate that investors have reached their maximum tolerance level for risk in stocks and that they will not be committing any more money to the stock market. I am not sure if this is the correct interpretation, but it would seem to be confirmed by the consistently low volume the market has experienced during the advance from the 2009 lows.

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Risk Appetite Returns On Global Data

This from Futures Magazine briefly reiterates what we already know from last week but gives a nice overview of what's coming this week both in the U.S. and [especially] abroad.

Risk rebounds on improving global data

The past week began with disappointment stemming from Japan ’s lack of direct currency intervention and risk aversion looked probable to continue into the week. This was not the case as better than expected Australian 2Q GDP started a ripple effect culminating into a global wave of positive data surprises. Upbeat manufacturing numbers midweek out of China and the US saw safe havens soften and sent US equities soaring higher by greater than 2% Wednesday. The positive data stream continued Thursday as US July Pending Home Sales printed a much better than consensus +5.2% as compared to an expected -1% decline. Friday’s much anticipated NFP capped the data session as Private Payrolls jumped by +67k and the headline number declined by a less than expected -54k versus expectations of a -105k drop, seemingly cementing a renewed emergence of risk appetite.

The most recent risk rally faces a number of hurdles in the week ahead

Negative sentiment looks to have reversed with the prior week’s data releases but this most recent risk rally faces a number of hurdles in coming weeks. September has historically been an underperforming month for US equities and with the S&P facing critical resistance into its 100-day sma, currently 1105/10, along with a major horizontal pivot zone into 1130/35 may see near-term upside capped into these levels. Until these key price zones are breached, the current rally cannot be viewed as anything more than a correction towards range-bound conditions. Furthermore, much of the large moves realized this past week have occurred on extremely thin liquidity representing the opinions of a smaller percentage of market participants. Normal liquidity conditions should return next week. Price action in correlated markets also seems to confirm further circumspection into the current market euphoria. Gold, the alternative currency and a constant in the ‘safe haven’ asset class continues to trade at elevated levels into $1250/ oz. This may be a result of the softer dollar but the yellow metal’s divergence with risk suggests further downside could be in store. Elevated levels are a theme shared by European debt spreads as well. Although Friday has seen core-periphery spreads tighten, mainly as a result of a shot higher in German bond yields, they remain near May pre-crisis response levels and indicates continued concerns about the peripheral Eurozone(Ireland, Greece, Portugal) are highly probable.

A Multitude of Interest Rate Announcements in the Week Ahead

The week ahead sees a number of interest rate statements beginning down under with the RBA policy rate decision on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank is likely to remain on hold but accelerating growth evidenced by the stronger 2Q GDP suggests tightening for the following November meeting is an increasing possibility. The BOJ interest rate decision, also scheduled for release Tuesday, is likely to be a non-event as the target rate will remain steady at 0.10%. The focus in Japan remains to be on continued intervention speculation and the political uncertainty surrounding the September elections.

Wednesday sees the Bank of Canada rate decision and the market consensus for a 25 bp rate hike to 1% seems less of a likelihood considering the worse-than-expected 2Q GDP print of 2%. The risk is for a higher USDCAD as the market seems divided with a slight edge for a 25bp rate hike. The increasing uncertainty surrounding the decision may see the Canadian dollar weaken considerably if no tightening measures are taken. The heavy week of interest rate announcements winds down Thursday as the Bank of England is expected to keep the target rate steady at 0.50%. This is likely to be a non-event, the BOE’s policy is to withhold any post-decision press conferences unless there is a change in the target rate, and the focus will most likely be on the bevy of data scheduled for release next week.

Outcome from emergency BOJ meeting & political uncertainty may impact the JPY

Over the last few weeks BOJ Governor Shirakawa has been faced with mounting pressure from Prime Minister Kan to address the strengthening Japanese yen and deflation. In response, on Monday the BOJ held an emergency meeting and boosted their bank lending facility by 10 trillion to 30 trillion yen. While it was encouraging to see the BOJ take action, their response was viewed by many as being too little, too late and disappointed market participants. Many officials wanted the BOJ to engage in large-scale monetary easing; however Shirakawa is currently averse to increasing their purchases of government bonds outright from 1.8 trillion yen or lowering the policy rate from 0.1%.

Meanwhile, a more troubling topic at the moment for the JPY is the announcement of Ichiro Ozawa's candidacy for the DPJ Party Election on September 14th. The latest public opinion polls suggest the current Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, is currently leading by over 4:1; however Ozawa heads the largest faction in the DPJ and has been far more vocal in stating the need for intervention to prevent a stronger JPY. The risk here is that everyone will be so caught up in the election that they won’t be able to further address to Yen or their faltering economy. Additionally, many government officials in Japan feel that without U.S. support, unilateral intervention to halt the appreciating yen could ultimately be unsuccessful. In this scenario, it’s probable to see another test of the 15-year low in USD/JPY around 83.60 and the 8-year low in EUR/JPY near 105.45 over the coming weeks.

Key data and events to watch next week

The U.S. starts its week of economic data on Wednesday with the Fed’s Beige Book and July consumer credit. Thursday is set to release July Trade balance and the usual jobless claims. Friday wraps up the week with July wholesale inventories.

The Eurozone kicks off on Monday with September Sentix Investor confidence and the ECB’s Jurgen Stark will speak in Berlin. Tuesdays sees Swiss unemployment for August, German July factory orders, and speeches from the ECB’s Jurgen Stark and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi. Set for release on Wednesday is German and French July trade balance figures as well as Germany’s July industrial production. On Thursday, France sees its 2Q final non-farm payrolls and Germany is set to release August final CPI numbers. Friday rounds out the data with French July manufacturing and industrial production numbers.

The U.K. starts the action off the August Hailfax house price index, BRC August retail sales monitor, and new car registrations. Wednesday sees July industrial and manufacturing productions numbers and the August NIESR GDP estimate. The Bank of England will announce interest rates and its asset purchase target as well as release trade balance numbers for July on Thursday. Friday finishes things up with August PPI input and output readings.

Japan releases its August official reserve assets numbers and kicks of the BOJ monetary policy meeting on Monday. Tuesday sees the July preliminary leading and coincident index, August money stock, July machine orders, current account, trade balance and the BOJ will announce its target rate. Thursdays data include August bankruptcies and Eco Watchers survey results. Friday closes out the week with 2Q final GDP, August domestic CGPI and the BOJ will release its August 9-10 Board meeting minutes.

Canada kicks off on Wednesday with July building permits, August Ivey PMI and the Bank of Canada rate announcement. Set for release on Thursday is August housing starts as well as July new housing price index and international merchandise trade. Friday’s data sees the August employment report to wrap up the week.

The data down under begins on Monday with Australia’s AiG performance of construction index for August, ANZ job advertisements and TD Securities inflation numbers. On Tuesday, the RBA will announce its cash target, New Zealand is set to release 2Q manufacturing activity, and the July Australian home loans is set for release. On deck for Wednesday is New Zealand August card spending and the August Australian employment report. Thursday sees 2Q NZ Terms of Trade index and Australia foreign reserves numbers for August.

Be on the lookout for important China data as well. Monday sees 4Q China Manpower survey and trade balance numbers for August including exports and imports will be released on Friday.

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Key ETFs The Farthest Above Their 50d Moving Average

Once in a while you come across an article that not only provides good ideas for long positions [healthier, above their 50d] but also for short ideas should and I say should the market turn on us. Not advise to long or short, but good, solid, basic research for investors [imho].This from BespokeInvestments:

Below we highlight the key ETFs that we follow that are currently trading the farthest above their 50-day moving averages. As shown, the Internet stock ETF (HHH) is currently on top of the list at 10.31% above its 50-day. Malaysia (EWM) ranks second at 9.29%, followed by Base Metals (DBB), Australia (EWA), and then REITs (IYR). A lot of times we'll see ETFs from one asset class clustered at the top of the most overbought list, but it is currently pretty diverse.

Below is a chart of the Internet ETF (HHH) that is currently trading 10% above its 50-day. As shown, the ETF has made a huge move over the last four days. We also provide a table of the stocks that make up HHH. As shown, Amazon.com (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) collectively make up about 60% of the ETF. Both have been soaring lately and are now trading more than two standard deviations above their 50-days. They're the reason HHH has done what it has done this week.

Reprinted from http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/3/key-etfs-farthest-above-50-day-moving-averages.html

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Reader Responds A Year After Walking Away

Slightly over one year ago, I received an email from "Morally Conflicted in Arizona" who at the time was considering "Walking Away". I responded to his email on August 18, 2009 in Bright Side of Falling Home Prices

It turns out "Morally Conflicted" did indeed walk away. Here is a followup email I received a few days ago, about his experience.

End of the Line

"Morally Conflicted" writes ...

Hello Mish,

It's been over a year since I asked for your opinion about how long it would take for the housing market to "recover," which was about the same time that I stopped paying my mortgage and decided to walk away.

Well, the game is finally over. I moved out last week, and the trustee's sale occurred last Thursday.

After thinking repeatedly about it recently, the end results look something like this:

After purchasing the house in 2005 for about $740K with only $40K down, if you count my mortgage payments as "rent," in a sense, I recovered my down payment over the past year by living "rent" free over the past year.

The current value of the house is most likely around $400K. Thus, I was able to "get out from under" a $300K loss by walking away.

After a bit of looking over the past couple of months, found a two-bedroom house I can rent for $1200/month. The rental is in Scottsdale, just a few miles from my old house. It's definitely smaller and not as nice, but it's more than adequate.

Given my new rent payment, I am estimating that I will be saving at least $1500/month by renting the new house vs. staying in the old house, even with a modified payment (and yes, I am accounting for the tax break on my old property.

Therefore, as things currently stand, I believe I will "save" $150K over the next 100 months - assuming of course that my rent doesn't change and/or I don't move again.

Thus, I believe I can conservatively estimate that my decision to walk on the house will essentially increase my net worth by approximately $300K over the next 100 months had I struggled in the existing loan. Moreover, that assumes the old house increases in value in that timeframe. If not, the number may be more like $450K.

On top of everything, just this week, I was contacted by the real estate agency that will be selling the house for the new owner (i.e., the bank - it looks like they bought the house "from themselves" at the trustee's sale), and I am being offered $2500 to leave the appliances, etc., in the old house.

The only real downside I see at this point is that my credit is shot. I guess I'll have a foreclosure on my "record" for the rest of my life.

However, the irony is that if there has ever been a time in my life when I do not want to borrow any money for anything, it is now.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation. This is not something that I'm proud of. However, it does feel good to have it over with, and looking at the math, it really seems like the right thing to do. Sure, I "could" have been paying my mortgage over the past year, but given the hit my income took last year and the first part of this year, I would essentially be living paycheck to paycheck right now.

As always, I appreciate your work. Please keep it up.

Thank you,
Morally Conflicted in AZ

P.S. I did consult with an attorney before making the final decision to walk away.
Glad I could Help

Thanks "Morally Conflicted" I am glad I could help.

For more on the morals and ethics of "Walking Away" please see


Seek Legal Counsel

That "P.S." line above regarding consulting an attorney is very important. I did advise"Morally Conflicted" to do just that.

For more on the needs to seek proper legal advice, please see ...


There are many potential snags to consider if you go it alone. Don't do it!

Walking Away Goes Mainstream

The moral stigma regarding "Walking Away" is now pretty much gone. That it ever existed in the first place is quite hypocritical.

Henry Blodget and Aaron Task discuss the hypocrisy a few days ago in It's Okay To Walk Away: Let's End The "Morality" Double-Standard On Mortgage Defaults [NOTE: I was unable to embed this video here but it is worthwhile watching imho. To view this video click here]


I was way out in font of this issue, almost two years ago. If "Walking Away" is in your best financial interest, there is nothing wrong with doing just that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Originally posted at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Blocking Stimulus For Politcal Gains?

Todays post from Barry Ritholtz refers to an accusation that further stimulus is being put off until after the November elections; something I strongly believe in, and eerily similar to my previous post on 1931 European Depression Redux where Austrian officials are putting off their 2011 budget until after their Fall elections [an unconstitutional act by the way]. Will we see more of this posturing for political gains across the globe? Me thinks so. I look forward to your thoughts and comments below. For your StockBuz consideration:

“Now I’m looking at the political system turning itself into a paralyzed beast. A lost decade now looms as a much bigger risk. The Fed’s running out of powder; Its really powerful ammunition has been expended.”

-Alan Blinder, former vice chairman Federal Reserve, on whether the US could sink into a Japan-style quagmire

>

Peter Goodman has a longish article in the NYT Week in Review, What Can Be Done to Cure the Ailing Economy?.

It is notable for a few reasons: Great chart porn (see right), a few good quotes (see above), and a bombshell from Bruce Barlett, the Treasury economist in the first Bush administration.

Bartlett has become a pariah to the Republican party, saying out loud what few people dare to even think. He notes that we are already in gridlock, with the GOP deploying a blocking strategy. He thinks nothing substantive is going to change for a simple reason:

“Clearly, a weak economy in 2012 will be very good for whoever the Republican presidential candidate is. It’s hard to see how the Republicans lose by blocking stimulus.”

That is a pretty damning accusation. Bartlett is essentially arguing that the anti-stimulus crowd is doing so not for ideological beliefs, but for political advantage. He is implying their goal is to keep the economy weak in order to prevail politically.

That is quite an accusation . . . Do any of you buy it?

>

Source:
What Can Be Done to Cure the Ailing Economy?
Peter S. Goodman
NYT, August 28, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/weekinreview/29goodman.html

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1931 European Depression Redux?

Tight-lipped finance ministers from Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg left a round table meeting in Vienna on Thursday without any statement to the public. According to Austrian Börse-Express talks centered around government budgets and bank secrecy (that's no pun.)
Austrian finance minister Josef Pröll had said earlier that Austria will not move on a loosening of bank secrecy as long as UK based trusts are able to invest anonymously and wants to shift this discussion onto the OECD level.
Conservative Pröll, currently breaching Austria's constitution with the nod of social democrat chancellor Werner Faymann, because both ruling parties want to delay the 2011 budget until after two provincial elections in October, may have other worries about the Austrian banking sector on his mind.
Recent data from Austria's central bank confirms that Austria's banks, mainly Raiffeisen group and Erste Group, are still heavily dependent on favorable forex crosses, i.e. Central Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the Swiss Franc.
The Economist today had this graph based on data from Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) that shows that CEE inhabitants are highly leveraged with foreign currency loans that become more expensive day by day as long as the Swiss Franc and the Euro rise against their domestic currencies.


The sub-headline "A slow fuse still burns on eastern Europe’s foreign-currency debts" could not be more courtly given Austria's dominant position in the foreign currency loan business in the Eurozone.
From the Economist:

In early August a number of banks operating in the region reported sometimes startling rises in loan losses. Among them were UniCredit, Erste Group and OTP. It had been hoped that loan losses would start falling. Instead they have continued to climb—alarmingly in some cases. In Kazakhstan more than a third of outstanding debt is non-performing. In Latvia, almost a fifth of debt is going bad.
In Hungary and Poland the proportion of debt that is souring is below 8%, though in both countries it is still rising and, because their economies are bigger, their bad debts can cause more havoc. Non-performing loans in Ukraine are officially below 10% of the total, but quirks in the tax law punish banks for writing off loans. The IMF reckons the true figure is closer to 30%.
The main reason for the sharp rise in bad debts is that borrowers had became unhealthily addicted to loans in foreign currencies, such as the Swiss franc, which offered lower interest rates than local-currency debt. In Hungary almost two-thirds of household debt is in foreign currencies (see chart). In Latvia about 90% of all private borrowing is. A steep rise in the value of the Swiss franc against local currencies has increased the burden of debt and interest payments on the region’s borrowers. The strains have been made worse by collapsing housing markets and the general economic slowdown.
While observers of Austria's role in CEE may not exactly be surprised - find an overview of CEE bank players here - I am a bit worried that recent OeNB data shows that Austrian banks have reduced their Eurozone share of forex loans by less than a fifth since January 2007.

GRAPH: Austrian banks have reduced their share of private forex loans in the Eurozone from 48% to 41.6% since January 2007. The small to midsize banks of this tiny country of 8 million still hold by far more forex loans than any other Eurozone bank sector on the national level. I am not sure whether the Austrian arm of Italy's Unicredit Group is included in this data set or nt. Data: OeNB, ECB.

Austrian banks have drastically curbed domestic lending to both consumers and businesses in the last 2 years and it is an open secret in the chatty Cafes of Vienna that they survive primarily by a reluctance to write down loans to their real market value.
It was the bankruptcy of then Rothschild-owned Creditanstalt in 1931 that led to the European depression. If one of Austria's top 3 banks falters, and this is more a when-question, we may see a rerun of history. It won't be nice, to say it courtly. DISCLOSURE: No related position but a vital historical interest.

Reprinted from theprudentinvestor "Updateo On The [Bad] Situation Of Austrian Banks"

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Confessions Of A Uploading Dummy

Ah, the 70's. Everyone had Saturday Night [Disco] Fever, bad polyester shirts with ruffles [!],

Happy Days, Kojak with a lolli pop, The Waltons, 10% unemployment, block-long lines at the gas pump, a peanut-picker President and ah yes, computers began invading the office workspace. I remember it well as I begrudingly sat through computer training at Percy Wilson Mortgage downtown; the entire time chuckling under my breath with my coworkers that this computer b.s. would never work. Something called an "internet" would span the world and allow people on every continent to communicate within seconds without a wire? Surely someone was on drugs. Even if this *thing* worked, never, ever would we [in the mortgage business] be able to verify someone's income/assets without the mountains of paperwork that are involved. Folders stuffed 3" thick with credit reports, verifications of employment, letters of explanation, bank statements, divorce decrees and a 20-page long appraisal. No way no how but I was going to hold my laughter and sit through this useless training nonetheless. What a waste of my time but they *were* buying us a free lunch so what the hell.

Fast forward to 2010. 30% of residences have done away with home telephones, using only cell phones for their daily banter. Everyone and their brother has a laptop, five-year-old knows how to surf the net, we make purchases online, read our books on electronic readers, send letters to Aunt Martha via email and make new friendships in an online world. My, my how times have changed.

So we've adapted. We've learned how to navigate email, how to surf the web and even chart and trade stock online but when it came down to taking a picture of something I saw online [a joke, a picture or a chart] I was a dummy. Drew a blank. Had no clue how to "grab" a picture of a chart and upload it to an email or put in a blog.

While I've discovered many little apps out there on the web, here are two solutions that I know work because I use them every day.

DesktopTweet and Jing. Both applications are free and allow you to select an area on your screen by clicking & dragging, then save to a folder on your desktop to be uploaded or emailed later and/or upload to [what I call] *online warehouses* such as Twitpic, Pikchur, etc for storage. There's also an option to publish your pic on the net to places like Twitter. Jing allows you to also record video and customize a picture or chart with lines, arrows, text boxes, highlight an area, etc. whereas DesktopTweet is purely to upload a photo or chart but both work extremely well and have made my life a breeze over the last year with their simplicity.

If you utilize another little app, I'd love for you to share it with us here and if you decide to take the plunge, please let me know how you like them here in the Comments area. Somehow I feel a little less of a dummy; at least for now. Wonderhow long it'll last. Maybe I should get out my clogs ;)

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Given the price action in the market lately, there's been much discussion here on what constitutes a pullback and what constitutes a change in direction or trend. The suggestions have ranged from three weekly or monthly lower closes, a close below a certain moving average, various moving average crosses and more but in all honesty I don't think there's *one* holy grail. One indicator that satisfies all investors across all asset classes and we all have different loss tolerances and for that matter, different viewpoints or perspectives on the world economy and it's ongoing recovery.

This discussion however, brought to mind the following [somewhat lengthy] excerpt from the novel on Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre [available in PDF format in our Books Forum] This excerpt helps reinforce in my mind the importance trading in the direction of the primary move, and to avoid the noise of short-term fluctuations which quite honestly, is difficult for a short-term trader such as myself to remember on a daily basis. I welcome your comments, and enjoy!

In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings.

He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do? Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning. One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours." Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.

"Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"

'What?" yelled Elmer.

"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.

"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"

"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.

Indeed, I am, sir. But --"

"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"

"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.

"No, I couldn't."

"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.

"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."

"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"

I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"

"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

Lastly, this short excerpt

Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that

the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see -- or if you prefer, until you think you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision to do this"

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A Correction? Another headfake? My .02

Should I buy the dip? Should I blame it on lunar movements or is it another headfake? Will the Bears be punished once more and we head higher as we have in the past? Well for what its worth [which is zilch] I think we're in for a larger correction. Obviously I'm not a Economist or a Hedge Fund Manager [I wish] but I believe there are number of reasons we'll see *sell in May and go away* come to fruition this year.

  • First and foremost, spiralling Eurozone debt and the additional debt they'll have to issue to bring themselves out of the immediate crisis. The PIIGS are not dead and I believe it will take months for this to fully play out as the ECB does its best to drum up support for the Euro in the meantime. This fear alone has and will send some investors to safer havens such as currencies and bonds.
  • Then you've got to wonder where the ECB is going to get all of this money? Sure, turn on the printing press works but you know they're heavily invested in various markets and they could certainly use some of that money right now, couldn't they.
  • Seasonality not only in commodities but in the S&P itself due to capital gains. The more profitable or trending season according to Spectrum Commodities for equity markets being November to April and slightly less profitable May to October, The difference going back to the 1930s may be 10-17% depending on the index, but to big investors, 10% is substantial.
  • Earnings. So we've reported better than expected Q1 and Q2 and prices trended higher. At some point, these higher earnings [based on economic recovery] become *baked in*. There simply isn't much further to go based on earnings potential and eight [8] months left in 2010 the so prices must adjust and big business rings the register. What better time to take profits but just before the kid are let out of school, cottages are opened, the boat comes out of storage and Summer's on the horizon?
  • Recent guidance and earnings beats. Even Bespoke noticed that earnings beats are receding. Handwriting on the wall of what's to come? It's tough to factor in higher prices when forward guidance doesn't impress.
  • Valuation. Have you noticed the recent increase in downgrades to to overvalution? The ratings agencies are telling you something but were you listening?
  • Speaking of forward earnings; take a look. Are they substantially higher as they were over the last 12 months ago or slightly up to flat?
  • Then you've got talk of financial reform [which will probably amount to nothing useful whatsoever] and the GS invesitgation; both giving the Bears something to harp over.
  • Lastly and maybe most imporantly for the markets is the extension for US unemployment benefits. Extended 60 days retroactive to April 5th, these loom to expire the beginning of June with Congress [at least up to now] not enthusiastic of granting another extension. After all, how long can they continue to prop up the numbers? Now when/if these expire, how great do you feel the impact will have on consumer spending? Yeah, you know it. Huge. Of course they may pull another rabbit out of their hat but at $10 billion cost for each 30 days, its clear the extensions are numbered to say the least.

It all adds up to a lot of uncertainty and why I believe we're going to see further profit taking in the days or weeks to come. For the record I don't believe we're going to revisit the lows at this point [sorry Mr. Prechter] but certainly wouldn't rule out that possibility if something were to change with the stability of the Euro, USD or GBP. That would be a game changer in my mind, certainly.

So are all sectors going to pullback? Well possibly not. According to Spectrum, crude oil catches a bid in May/June due to anticipated Summer driving demand and Gld, while it tends to have some strength in May due to the impending June wedding season, it may see even more buying interest due to global economic concerns. Then there are utilities which have undperformed and even the Healthcare sector which has undergone a correction as well.

Other options might be to take a portion of your profits and invest into short term bond funds, Corporate bond funds and inflation-protected funds. Vanguard offers a number of these with as little as $3000 and all you have to do is perform a search on your brokers site.

Lastly there are inverse ETFs, many of which have decay issues so be careful if you're not daytrading but I personally will be ringing the register on my profitable positions on any green [up] day this week.

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Pring Turner Capital Trend & Outlook

Came across this presentation @ tradersnarrative http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/tsa.pdf and believe you would all find it very interesting as they outline where they believe the market is at and where it is headed in 2010. Doesn't make them right, but lots of good info. Short story, they believe we should be selling financials and consumer discretionary at this juncture and materials will be the place to be in 2010. At least for a while.

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Big Banks: Going Where No Bank Has Gone Before

Oh, the controvery over the proposed bank tax is getting good; get your ringside seat tickets now - they're going like hotcakes. This was my thought this morning as I awoke to this WSJ article on banks hiring a Supreme Court litigator to investigate whether the Obama administrations proposed tax is unconstitutional "because it would unfairly single out and penalize big banks. LOL Oh, put me in [office] Coach! They also don't feel they should be held accountable for the billions of losses incurred by nonbank recipients such as AIG, GM and others but one must wonder if GM would've been in the mess they found themselves in if it weren't for the economic meltdown.....but I digress. For the record I feel AIG should be included but that's not my point. If I were Obama right now, I'd be standing up, extending my arm forward and bending my fingers as if to say " bring it on big boys!" So the political posturing, lobbying and money flow will continue but if people have any brains [or balls], they'll lift their voices in unison at the audacity and the Supreme Court will scoff in bankers faces holding them finally accountable for their actions. With any luck, this will turn out to be one can of litigation worms they'll wish they didn't open.

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