Is our economic recovery truly as strong as charts would imply? Are we strong enough to stand on our own at these levels, or have we overshot the boundaries thanks to quantitative easing? Are economics in the U.S. strong enough or does recession lie ahead?
Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.
Yield Curve Year End Closing Values 1998-2015
Unlike 1999-2000 and again 2007-2007, no portions of the yield curve are inverted today (shorter-term rates higher than longer-term rates).
Inversion is the traditional harbinger of recessions, but with the low end of the curve still very close to zero despite the first Fed hike, inversions are unlikely.
Yield Curve Differentials: 3-Month to Longer Durations