economics (3)

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Recession Proponents Watching Yield Curve

Is our economic recovery truly as strong as charts would imply?  Are we strong enough to stand on our own at these levels, or have we overshot the boundaries thanks to quantitative easing?  Are economics in the U.S. strong enough or does recession lie ahead?

Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.

Yield Curve Year End Closing Values 1998-2015

yield%2Bcurve%2B2015-12-31.png

Unlike 1999-2000 and again 2007-2007, no portions of the yield curve are inverted today (shorter-term rates higher than longer-term rates).

Inversion is the traditional harbinger of recessions, but with the low end of the curve still very close to zero despite the first Fed hike, inversions are unlikely.

Yield Curve Differentials: 3-Month to Longer Durations
yield%2Bcurve%2B2015-12-31A.png


Yield Curve Differentials: 1-year to Longer Durations
yield%2Bcurve%2B2015-12-31B.png
Yield Curve Differentials: 2-year to Longer Durations

yield%2Bcurve%2B2015-12-31C.png

In general, albeit with some volatility, the yield curve has been flatteni

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10 Basic Laws of Economics

th?&id=HN.608015310269187478&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0Jeffrey Dorfman's recent column in Forbes ("10 Essential Truths Liberals Need to Learn") is not a partisan attack on liberals. It is a clear-cut summary of some basic laws of economics that hold no matter what your political beliefs happen to be. Unfortunately, too many Republicans, Democrats, and bureaucrats are guilty of ignoring these laws. In my experience, it's also true that too many investors fail to understand these fundamental truths. I've only listed the laws here; for an explanation of each be sure to read the whole thing: (HT: Mark Perry)

1) Government cannot create wealth, jobs, or income.
2) Income inequality does not affect the economy.
3) Low wages are not corporate exploitation.
4) Environmental over-regulation is a regressive tax that falls hardest on the poor.
5) Education is not a public good.
6) High CEO pay is no worse than high pay to athletes or movie stars. 
7) Consumer spending is not what drives the economy.
8) When government provides things for free, they

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After a recent trip to one of our local Goodwill Stores(btw great place to find investment type books, especially after the market is going through, or just coming out of a bear market), I came away with a copy of "A Journey Through Economic Time, A Firsthand View" by John Kenneth Galbraith. I was truly excited to find and purchase a book by Galbraith, the late renowned and respected economist. Furthermore I was excited that it appeared to be an economic history of the twentieth century with some commentary in a format that was easy to understand.

The book starts with the early part of the twentieth century. Galbraith discusses World War I and the aftermath. He discusses the rise of John Meynard Keynes as an economist and the unintended consequences of German war reparations. Galbraith laments the fact that economic decisions are often made by the stupid or uninformed politicians. Galbraith continues by citing causes for the Great Depression and The Crash. He also discusses the effects

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