What We're Reading

In early October, I pointed out that the Russell 2000 (IWM or $RUT) could be forming a bullish butterfly pattern, having found buyers off of the 20month SMA.  (See here) 

Well so far so good and I'm calling it's recent consolidation a bull "flag" due to no significant breakdown in the other three indexes, nor semiconductors.

Friday we saw banks and broker/dealers make a nice reversal higher after comments were made, that while the ECB is not easing "now", they will be preparing a QE plan for their January meeting.  The U.S. 10 year popped and the banks/brokers followed in suit.

Small caps also typically outperform large caps going into the end of the year.  While the stronger US dollar may weigh on them longer term, I still believe Santa will not leave them off his "nice list" this holiday season.

While much of the equity market is extended, banks still have room to run and I feel small caps will rip to the upside and I hope to see them lead.  My next $RUT target $1300.  Stop below

We've all watching the weakness unfold in small caps and I would question whether it is truly weakness or has merely been consolidating after running too far, too quickly.  One distinct possibility is that it has now formed a bullish butterfly as shown right (click image to enlarge).

The measurements using a fat crayola are there, although butterfly patterns can extend down to a 161.8% extension so further downside would not void the possibility.  It would merely wash out all weak hands by taking out the low before reversing.

If so, here is your entry to get long with risk being very limited with a stop (alert) below the lows......along with everyone else's.

I would point out that even though everyone has wondered if small caps divergence from it's large caps brothers, there are no negative divergences really when it comes to indicators.  If it were bearish, one would expect to see bearish divergences indicating a further decline. 

We are not witnessing that in small caps.  I am al