IT HAS been a consistent theme of this blog in recent months that global growth has been slowing, a fact some investors may have missed in the good news about American GDP. The latest confirmation came from the World Trade Organisation, which cut its forecast for trade growth this year from 4.6% to 3.1% and for 2015 from 5.3% to 4%. The WTO doesn't forecast economic growth directly; it takes its lead from other international organisations (Rabo Bank reckons the IMF is set to reduce its growth forecast in the next few weeks).
What is interesting from the WTO announcement is that even the revised forecast relies on a bit of optimism. Actual trade growth in the first half of the year was just 1.8%; the organisation is relying on a rebound in the second half. The first half regional numbers were revealing; Asia increased its exports by 4.2% but its imports by just 2.1%. In effect, it has been gaining market share. North America was more balanced, increasing exports by 3.3% and imports by
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