After Friday's spectacular 10% sell off in black gold, I went back to my earlier post on shorting crude oil and felt pretty darn good as I made myself a turkey sandwich for lunch. Some would say it was a capitulation bottom but I just didn't see the volume which would come with such a move. Yes there was heavy selling but it was funds getting OUT of energy names and forced selling - not buying a dip. Sure, it can snap back and a near term bottom is most likely in but I will not be trading that. The top is in in my opinion. I will view any move higher (without an event risk occurring) as an opportunity to re-short at a higher level.
I still believe the entire sector is extremely over crowded with over 100 oil companies just in the U.S. alone. While deflation in any sector is difficult to swallow, I may not be too far from the truth. According to the WSJ:
Energy stocks are on sale following a five-month plunge in crude oil, but so far few investors are heeding the temptation
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