10 year (2)


Deflation or Recession?

Is that what the 10yr is signalling?1290684?profile=original  The EU doesn't have the mechanism to launch quantitative easing.  Raising rates would pressure their recovery.  Has Draghi painted himself into a corner? 

The U.S. is having to accept the "taper" while slow growth persists.  Maybe it's time to get back to reality and fundamentals.  Actually that works for me because I'd much rather buy stocks with S&P500 at the 100week than "here".  Only time will tell but hedging and shorts are (finally) working.

The 10yr is definitely not happy and is trying to bounce off of 2.6 but if that goes.........look out for more pain (for equities).  Seems as though sell in May was a good idea after all.

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Hump Day Reads May 14th


  • Normally very bullish Piper Jaffray warns the stealth correction should NOT be ignored.  BofA agrees. CNBC
  • The U.K.'s unemployment rate fell to a 5-year low of 6.8% in Q1, said the Office for National Statistics today, giving more fuel to those calling on the Bank of England to hike rates.
  • The 10 year broke 2014 support.  The 2.6 level is a "magic number for some, as it has been a risk-down, risk-off trigger. There are investors who sell stocks after it gets below 2.6 percent, as it's seen as predicting an economic slowdown" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. (click chart to enlarge)
  • Morgan Stanley analysts are calling a bottom in coal mining stocks, seeing a recovery in the thermal coal market pulled forward by the recent polar vortex and extreme cold; inventories have been falling rapidly, and the firm believes thermal coal prices will continue to rise.
  • Following public backlash on proposed Net Neutrality rules, the FCC backtracks and says

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