Here we go again but should anyone be surprised? This is one of those days when people will come out and say "the market is not the economy" yet we all know job growth remains tepid at best and with that, one has to ask "where will the growth come from?" See the ginormous infographic below.
World Bank has lowered its forecasts for developing countries, now eyeing growth at 4.8 percent this year, down from its January estimate of 5.3 percent. Signs point to strengthening in 2015 and 2016 to 5.4 and 5.5 percent, respectively. China is expected to grow by 7.6 percent this year, but this will depend on the success of rebalancing efforts. If a hard landing occurs, the reverberations across Asia would be widely felt.
There's always a BUT
Yet Variant Perceptions survey of small businesses (a proxy for future growth) shows the belief that wage growth will pick up for the rest of the year driven by much tighter labour market. (My thoughts: many of those who have left the workforce may not return and are now behind in skills needed? That and Obama's push to raise the Federal minimum wage)
"At present we’re seeing near record low levels of short-term unemployment, a surge in higher wage expectations by small businesses, and one of the higher levels of percentage of sectors expanding employment."
Encouraging talk. Yes markets are forward looking but is Mr. Market baking in expansion too soon? 2015 can't get here fast enough for my taste. I'm sure bulls will BTFD.
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