The debate continues whether China will return to it's incredible 10% GDP pre-crisis highs with voracious appetite for all things commodity. Or whether given their own housing bubble (with empty subdivisions, malls, amusements parks and college campus's yet to be occupied) will their monetary policy now keep them on more of a sustained 7-8% path going forward.
Africa, in the meantime, continues to grow. Indeed the IMF recently predicted Ruwanda's economy to grow by over 7% in 2013. Although global slowdowns and funding due to Rebel support weighs heavily on the numbers, this type of growth is not to be dismissed (imo) . For your consideration, I submit this McKinsey quarterly article on What's Driving Africa's Growth? and ask you: Is Africa The New China?:
To be sure, Africa has benefited from the surge in commodity prices over the past decade. Oil rose from less than $20 a barrel in 1999 to more than $145 in 2008. Prices for minerals, grain, and other raw materials also soared on rising global demand.
Yet the commodity boom explains only part of Africa’s broader growth story. Natural resources, and the related government spending they financed, generated just 32 percent of Africa’s GDP growth from 2000 through 2008.2 The remaining two-thirds came from other sectors, including wholesale and retail, transportation, telecommunications, and manufacturing (Exhibit 1). Economic growth accelerated across the continent, in 27 of its 30 largest economies. Indeed, countries with and without significant resource exports had similar GDP growth rates. Read more @ McKinsey quarterly.
Comments