Intrinsic Value

What do I look for in the balance sheet that tells me a stock is a good buy for the long run. Which sectors would be the most likely to take off next year. Most are saying the Tech stocks are the best play

 

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    Mike

    This is the question on everyone's mind and some of todays discussion in Chat may point you in the right direction.  This from todays archives:

    • If yesterdays GS 2012 forecast was fairly uncertain, MS now comes out saying we’ll close 2012 7% lower at……..$1167.00? wtf? http://www.scribd.com/doc/77014834/MS-2012-Forecast Note: The Contrarian in me is screaming this will be upgraded sometime in the year but...............

    • DowRoR.gif?width=375Ryan brought up this chart from Barry Ritholtz proposing that we are on the downside of earnings growth. This all prompted me to dig out the following.

    • Interestingly, I pulled up this MS forecast from 7/08. While their analysts were mixed, this same writer stated were were “at the early stage of what is effectively the second of two bear markets. The first bear market was centered on Western world financials; the second will be driven by a cyclical decline in global growth and earnings Sound familiar boys??? http://www.scribd.com/doc/4042940/Bloomberg-Bear-Market-Rhythm

    • Which brings us to Goldman Sachs graph of what sectors they believe will grow and contract in 2012 [posted previously in the archives and in the Charts section] Click below the photo to enlarge. Any comments or thoughts are welcomed; just post below the graph http://stockbuz.ning.com/photo/2012-growth

    Bottomline, **if** Government Sachs has it right, only Insurance, some financials and transports are predicted to have growth in 2012.  Feels like the 70's all over again.  Not a pretty picture, is it.

     

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