Double Dip or business as usual coming out of a recession?

[Honey Badger(Drewski)]

Lately I've heard a lot of people sounding off about the possibility of a double dip recession. Among the most cited statisitics is present GDP growth slowing compared to the end of last year. Yet I had not seen one ounce of empirical data on GDP growth coming out of the most recent recessions regardless whether it proved or disproved slowed growth as an indicator of a double dip recession. Below you will find a chart of the last three recessions including the most recent. The chart was taken from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website.

As you can see it is common for growth to slow, even signifcantly, after the accelerated growth from the bottom of the trough of a recession.

While I will not argue that there are headwinds hindering the economy. Housing still is in the dumps, China may be slowing, and the dreaded Euro-credit-crap could all sink the ship in a worst case scenario. However the slowed domestic GDP growth is in no way indicative of a double dip recession if the two previous recessions are in anyway an indicator.

well, there could be the offset chance of a bear market without a recession. that could easily happen IMO

What a double dip looks like....

tough to say. i wont talk double dip in the economy right now. what i will say is the market looks in trouble. the economy may or may not be in trouble because of that

One other thing reference double dip recessions, it has only happened once in the past 70 years. That was in 1981 when the fed raised rates to 18% to kill inflation and by function killed the economy in the short term. Don't think our present situation is very similar at all.