SPX Elliott Wave 10.28

Posted by StockBuz on October 29, 2011 at 5:30pm

This from http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/10/elliott-wave-update-28-october-2011.html assumes we're in a bear market near completing a Wave 2 with Wave 3 to be much more severe. Only time will tell if we're out of the woods however bonds [BND] did not break major support and gold/silver are still holding up which makes me think this move was more weak short covering than it was true *risk on*. All eyes on global GDP reports this week as well as the ECB rate decision.

Comments

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StockBuz November 2, 2011 at 8:28am

For once Ryan and I agreed $1310 [above 78.6% retracement] would be our line in the sand for the bear case and we don't agree very often *lol*
al November 2, 2011 at 7:15am

Not sure if these are Elliott waves, but wave 1 was a 100% rally in 5 years (2002-07); wave 2 was a 100% rally in just 2 years (2009-11). Wave 2 is just a compressed version of wave 1. If history rhymes in fractal fashion, it indicates another slump similar to 2008, but definitely faster. Not sure if said slump would be more shallow than 2008. If SPX reaches 1280 but then quickly fades, that would strongly suggest the start of such a slump. But if SPX beats 1280 and sustains, it may dodge that bullet. I wouldn"t have much conviction in either direction until this 1280 benchmark unfolds.

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