What We're Reading

• This day in 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is first published. Its 12 initial members are the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber. The index’s value that day: 40.94.  Source: Phyllis S. Pierce, ed., The Dow Jones Averages 1885-1980 (DowJones Irwin, Homewood, IL, 1982), introduction, not paginated; http://averages.dowjones.com and JasonZweig

• Very odd the move in treasury yields today on the better than expected NFP number.  Maybe "smart money" is telling us the economy is not as strong as believed?  Extremely interesting to watch.  The Treasury market's reaction hasn't been more negative.  The 10-yr note, which was down 18 ticks shortly after the release, is now down just two ticks and yielding 2.62% (down roughly 40 bps since the end of 2013).  We still recommend ca

Digging deeper into today's better-than-expected non-farm payroll, one sees (again) that low-wage job creation comprises the majority of the gains.  Once again it seems the middle class is being left out leaving only the lower and upper class job creation.  When comparing "this" recovery to those of the past, I would believe one would have to locate one where the largest population is left out of the recovery.  Can the "rich" alone sustain expansion and growth?  Obviously these low wage workers will not be moving out of their parents home any time soon.  Certainly higher education would assist in their move up the ladder however what does that bode for the already explosive rate of education loans (and those in default).  The Fed has become one large hedge fund, propping up the market.  Is that sustainable? 

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  If you want growth, the minimum wage must increase. Cities which have done so have NOT seen the devastating drop in new business or job