xlv - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-29T07:20:49Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/xlvThe Obamacare Post-Trump Dilemmahttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-obamacare-post-trump-dilemma2016-12-06T22:29:52.000Z2016-12-06T22:29:52.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>If you're like me, we're all wondering what is going to occur with ACA (Obamacare) once Donald Trump takes office and the charts from Healthcare (XLV) and Biotech (XBI) certainly reflect the concern.  With the proposed 21st Century Cures Act, due for Senate passage this week, be the $5Billion dollar "game changer"  the sector is waiting for...........or will we be waiting until Congress replaces the unpopular components of Obamacare to see an impact in stock price?</p>
<p>Repealing or replacing Obamacare is fraught with at least <a href="http://www.ipi.org/ipi_issues/article_detail.asp?name=matthews-the-six-challenges-facing-an-obamacare-repeal">six major issues</a>, but perhaps the most significant one is a lack of decisiveness within the Republican party itself. What would Obamacare be replaced with, and how would that change be implemented?</p>
<p>Interestingly, there are <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/11/17/13626438/obamacare-replacement-plans-comparison">at least seven</a> Republican plans that have been tabled to replace Obamacare. Within that group, two of the more prominent ones come from Georgia Rep. Tom Price and House Speaker Paul Ryan.</p>
<p>Tom Price, who is Trump’s pick as the incoming secretary for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has already published his <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2016/12/01/now-we-know-what-the-republican-obamacare-replacement-plan-will-look-like/">consumer-driven healthcare model</a>, and it already exists in legal language. In additional, Paul Ryan released his own proposal in the form of the <a href="https://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-HealthCare-PolicyPaper.pdf">A Better Way</a> plan earlier this year, which also touches on other issues such as poverty, national security, and the economy.</p>
<p>Despite the number of options, the problem is that no one can agree on a particular solution. The party is heavily divided, and Trump is already receiving <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/12/06/tea-party-republicans-already-planning-major-resistance-to-donald-trumps-obamacare-replacement-plan/">heavy blowback</a> from the Tea Party faction for telegraphing potential delays in repealing or replacing the act.</p>
<p>Yes, the future of U.S. healthcare is murky – even to Trump and the GOP. However, what is clear is that with most chips stacked in the Republicans favor over the coming years, it is unlikely that they will miss the opportunity to initiate the post-Obamacare era in some shape or form.</p>
<div style="clear: both;"><a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-obamacare-dilemma/"><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/whats-happening-with-healthcare.png" border="0" /></a></div>
<div>Courtesy of: <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com">Visual Capitalist</a></div>
<p></p>
</div>The Market Deteriorates Further. 'Bout Timehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-market-deteriorates-further-bout-time2016-10-30T18:07:13.000Z2016-10-30T18:07:13.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>The stock market continues to weaken, as evidenced by these ETF charts. If you zero in on a sector you wish to short, I would bear in mind that ETFs are comprised of market leaders. I would look for names <em>"outside"</em> of the ETF components; consider them leaders and you want the weaklings to short.</p>
<p><span class="font-size-5">The reasons for weakness are numerous.</span> </p>
<p>Consider the election weight (a Trump win would weigh on equities but Clinton weighs on pharma pricing). Then there are flat-to-dropping sales. Of course the USD movement (up will weigh on commodities and large caps with overseas exposure). Then there's those who feel we are already at or above maximum value and they're not buying here. They're hedged, short some and long financials ahead of the Fed rate hike. Then there's that Fed hike itself. High dividend is flushing down the toilet (SDY) in September. Overseas weakness with China not helping boost confidence for demand. And we also have more failure at the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN12T083?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews" target="_blank">OPEC talks</a> with no offer from outside countries to participate. They've definitely lost their 'power' over us and crude should continue to weaken.</p>
<p>Consider however, that the weakness has been <strong>growing</strong>, sector by sector. When you accept we have weakness in housing, some retail, some restaurants, small caps, mid caps, pharma, healthcare and now oil. With energy being the second largest sector, this weighs heavily. Banks can't do it all on their own.</p>
<p>Well here they go and there are <strong>many, many</strong> more out there; you'll see. Possibly you can use one here and/or search for more. Cover above the upper trend lines. Targets are all equal to the high/low of the pattern with a partial taken along the way. I usually leave a small piece on the table as well. You never know where the markets heading next. <strong>NOTE</strong>: Most are daily views but there are a few weekly charts. Take note.</p>
<p>You're welcome</p>
<p>(Click on any chart to enlarge)</p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291347?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291347?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291393?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291393?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291434?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291434?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291492?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291492?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291558?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291558?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291566?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291566?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291582?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291582?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291587?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291587?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291592?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291592?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291599?profile=original" target="_self"><img src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291596?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" class="align-full" width="750"></a></p></div>Not the monday you hoped forhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/not-the-monday-you-hoped-for2015-04-28T00:51:31.000Z2015-04-28T00:51:31.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291234?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291234?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a>Damn ugly, especially the high volume selling in healthcare and biotech.</p></div>Shorted Healthcarehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/shorted-healthcare2014-05-02T17:59:19.000Z2014-05-02T17:59:19.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Shorted XLV. Stop on a close above the 50d. Suggested previously <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/xlv-short?context=category-Short+Setups" target="_self">here</a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290597?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290597?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="332"></a></p>
<p>Target below the 200d. I like the risk/reward</p></div>