technology - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-29T12:11:48Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/technologyOut with the Old In with the New: What Chat GPT Means for Youhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/out-with-the-old-in-with-the-new-what-chat-gpt-means-for-you2024-02-19T18:35:34.000Z2024-02-19T18:35:34.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><div class="fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-5-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling">
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<p><strong>What an Old Idiom & Chat GPT Means for You</strong></p>
<p>Definitions and Generally Accepted Interpretations:</p>
<ol>
<li>Something new is replacing something that is old or out of date<a href="https://englishcomposition.org/out-with-the-old-in-with-the-new-meaning-and-examples-of-this-common-english-phrase/"><sup>[i]</sup></a>,<a href="https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-meaning-of-the-phrase-out-with-the-old-in-with-the-new"><sup>[ii]</sup></a></li>
<li>Life improves by replacing old things with new things.</li>
<li>To discard older, legacy technologies or ideas, with new and improved technologies or ideas<a href="http://idioms.languagesystems.edu/2015/01/out-with-old-in-with-new.html"><sup>[iii]</sup></a></li>
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<h2 class="fusion-responsive-typography-calculated" style="line-height:2.5;"><u>Out With Old In With New: Good for You</u></h2>
<p>The history books are quite clear on the matter: over the long arc of human history, life has improved. Generally speaking “out with old, in with new” has helped human beings live longer, healthier and safer lives. As recently as 1900, average life expectancy in the US was barely 48 years. By 2020 the number had jumped to 79 years.<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-united-states-all-time/"><sup>[iv]</sup></a> Progress.</p>
<p>The folks dedicated to technology deserve a great deal of credit for these improvements. Their achievements are invaluable. What I want to do is make the case we have been making for the last three years: that disruption is the normal state of affairs in technology.</p>
<p style="text-align:center;"> </p>
<p>While good for <strong>you, as a person, </strong>out with the old and in with the new is terrible for technology companies. This is why it is such a brutal space to invest in. Don’t believe us? Look back at our <a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/investing-in-staples-made-simple/">chart comparing Staples to IT</a>. “Disruptors get disrupted” is the law of the land and a critical component of Schumpter’s “creative destruction.”</p>
<p>The bloated weighting of technology in indexes and the rise of funds dedicated to investing in <span style="text-decoration:line-through;">utter rubbish</span> new age tech, that is an anomaly. It is not normal. As we explained in <a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/apple-ii-flashback-the-fantasy-of-predicting-the-future/">Apple II Flashback the Fantasy of Predicting the Future</a>, divining <a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/who-is-the-next-amazon-this-post-will-change-your-life/">who is the next Amazon</a> is empirically impossible. All you need to know is that <strong><em>the “next Amazon” is, indeed, coming. </em></strong> In October 2020 we warned that the current crop of purportedly impossible to displace tech juggernauts were little more than a reprise of the <a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/the-collision-of-arithmetic-over-optimism-why-todays-larger-cap-growth-is-more-precarious-than-the-nifty-fifty/">Nifty Fifty</a>. As that paper explained, in many ways the firms then were cheaper and perceived to have substantially better moats than today’s winners.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/msingh_nyc">Mandeep Singh</a>, Bloomberg’s TMT Lead and Senior Equity Research Analyst recently published a fantastic article on some of ChatGPT’s puts and takes. We believe this is but one tiny snapshot of the many disruptions taking place among the much-lauded disruptors.</p>
<p>Titled <em>“ChatGPT Aids AI Accelerator Spend, Search Impact Low” </em>they focused primarily on the potential for the technology to ramp up replacement cycles for devices and the implications for server and cloud infrastructure spend. But the piece did highlight issues that may slow ChatGPT adoption and suggest it is unlikely to alter the search landscape.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-245483 size-full" title="ChatGBT" src="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=691%2C324&ssl=1" alt="ChatGBT.png?resize=691%2C324&ssl=1" /><a href="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=300%2C141&ssl=1">https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=300%2C141&ssl=1</a> 300w, <a href="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=400%2C188&ssl=1">https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=400%2C188&ssl=1</a> 400w, <a href="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=500%2C234&ssl=1">https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=500%2C234&ssl=1</a> 500w, <a href="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=600%2C281&ssl=1">https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?resize=600%2C281&ssl=1</a> 600w, <a href="https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?fit=691%2C324&ssl=1">https://i0.wp.com/kailashconcepts.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ChatGBT.png?fit=691%2C324&ssl=1</a> 691w" alt="ChatGBT" width="691" height="324" data-recalc-dims="1" /></p>
<p><strong>I’m going to take the <u>over</u> on ChatGPT and suggest it may be an enormous disruptor to ad spend on search: </strong></p>
<p>The authors note that the query costs, at $0.07 per question, were far higher for ChatGPT than typical search which is paid for by <span style="text-decoration:line-through;">ruthlessly exploiting users’ personal information</span> advertising. The authors suggest, very understandably, that this could slow adoption.</p>
<p><strong>If you told me that, to get access to the $0.07 cost query in ChatGPT, I had to watch a 5 second ad, <em>I would watch that ad without blinking. </em>People do this to watch idiotic garbage on YouTube already. </strong></p>
<p><strong>What would an advertiser pay to have a user, wanting very specific information from ChatGPT, be worth?</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Here’s what we would do: halt 100% of our SEO spending and put it all into ads for ChatGPT users</li>
<li>Allowing us to send someone asking a question about portfolio management or investment styles a 5 second snippet about KCR ?<strong> No brainer. </strong></li>
<li>At $1 per ad, with hyper-targeting like that, the margin is 93% on that $0.07 cost, and I guarantee the results are better than spending for “placement” in Google search</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>There simply is no comparison.</strong> <strong>Here’s why:</strong></p>
<p>ChatGPT offers a more conversational and interactive user experience compared to traditional Google search. With traditional search, it’s a game of trying to find the specific keywords and phrases to get results relevant to me. With ChatGPT, users can ask questions and have a back-and-forth conversation with the model, allowing for more natural language inputs and a more intuitive way of finding information. Additionally, ChatGPT can generate human-like responses, which can make the experience feel more personal and engaging, allowing me to learn about the topics at the speed, depth and rate most useful to me. <strong>Put our ad in front of a user having a conversation about best financial newsletters or behavioral finance and it is the right audience having a great experience relative to banging about Google. </strong></p>
<p><strong>We want to find that user. </strong></p>
<p><strong>In contrast, </strong>Google has used their monopoly power to <span style="text-decoration:line-through;">extort</span> force customers to hand them money for “ad placements” that have to be one of the worst experiences in advertising history. <strong>Here are my 5 key gripes: </strong></p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Cost:</strong> Google Ads can be expensive, especially for competitive keywords or industries like finance. Advertisers must be prepared to bid high for their ads to be seen by their target audience <u>without knowing if they are actually even reaching the promised target audience</u>.</li>
<li><strong>Quality Score:</strong> Google Ads uses an arbitrary “Quality Score” to determine the relevance and quality of an ad. Low-quality ads may be penalized with lower ad rankings and higher costs per click without telling the ad buyer what is going on.</li>
<li><strong>Limited control over ad placement:</strong> Advertisers do not have full control over where their ads appear on the Google network, and in our limited trials we found the stuff showing up in comically wrong places.</li>
<li><strong>Limited control over ad format:</strong> Google has full control over the format of the ads and the way they are displayed on the search engine and other sites in the Google network.</li>
<li><strong>Click fraud:</strong> Advertisers are exposed to the risk of click fraud which is an intentional or unintentional click on an ad by a person that is not interested in the product or service being advertised and drives an entire industry of click-farmers.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong><em>Now you all know that most of the “pro ChatGPT” part and the section on why Google ad spend is a waste of money were written by ChatGPT. While not perfect or all-encompassing, the “pros” and 5 cons are 100% spot on in my experience. </em></strong></p>
<p>The disruption of disruptors is well underway in my view. Aside from the bipartisan support for <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-most-profitable-companies-stocks-simple-strategy-right-margins-return-on-equity-51602529870">antitrust </a>laws that move away from Bork’s “<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/3469063-competition-is-not-a-click-away-the-consumer-welfare-standard-is-failing-consumers/">consumer welfare</a>” standard to one that favors labor and actual firm competition, there is advertising. The key to much of the big-tech profit pool.</p>
<p>Already, Apple is making monetizing advertising a top priority. Netflix and numerous other streaming TV content is back from the “innovation” of subscriptions and looking for ad dollars. Amazon is also aggressively inhaling ad dollars.</p>
<p>Cloud storage and compute? Same story. Many of these companies are also diving headfirst into vertically integrating chip design – hardly an industry known for low costs and stable economic moats. The monopoly power of big tech is under siege as they all turn to each other’s core competencies to try and grow.</p>
<p>Remember: Amazon didn’t get into groceries because it was a great business with high margins. They did it because their stock responded to sales growth and groceries are a big chunk of the consumer wallet. <strong>Now, with tech under pressure to earn profits to justify exorbitant valuations predicated on actual cash profits (ex </strong><a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/sbc-finance-an-update-on-the-absurd/"><strong>SBC</strong></a><strong>), they are all racing into each-others’ core competencies. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Capitalism. Crops up when you least expect it…. </strong></p>
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<p>Courtesy of <a href="https://kailashconcepts.com/out-with-the-old-in-with-the-new/" target="_blank">kailashconcepts</a></p>
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<div class="fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-5-2 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling"> </div></div>A Timeline Of Future Technologyhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/a-timeline-of-future-technology2017-07-17T22:27:48.000Z2017-07-17T22:27:48.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><strong>A Timeline of Future Technology</strong></p>
<p>Making predictions about future technology is both fun and <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-timeline-of-failed-tech-predictions/" target="_blank">notoriously difficult.</a></p>
<p>However, such predictions also serve a very practical purpose for investors and business leaders, since failing to adapt to changing industry paradigms can completely decimate a business venture, turning it into the next Blockbuster, Kodak, or Sears.</p>
<p>Today’s infographic from Futurism rounds up some of the most interesting predictions about the future, from trusted sources such as Scientific American and The National Academy of Sciences.</p>
<p><span class="font-size-5">Machines,Big and Small</span></p>
<p>The confluence of robotics, artificial intelligence, and <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-jobs-lost-automation/" target="_blank">increasing levels of automation</a> is a prevailing trend throughout the projected timeline of future technology.</p>
<p>In less than 10 years, we will be able to control machines based on eye movements, while ingesting nano-sized robots to repair injuries from within our bodies. Later on, it’s also expected that the next wave of AI will be a reality: by 2036, predictive AI will be able to predict the near-future with impressive precision. Elections, weather, geopolitical events, and other dynamic systems will be analyzed in real-time using thousands or millions of data streams.</p>
<p>Even further down the line, human brains and machines will be continue to become closer to interfacing directly, creating all kinds of possibilities.</p>
<p><span class="font-size-5">The Energy Revolution Continues</span></p>
<p>If you think the current progress in clean energy is exciting – wait until you see the technologies in the queue. The future of battery technology will include carbon-breathing batteries that turn CO2 into generate electricity, as well as diamond-based “nuclear batteries” that run off of nuclear waste. Meanwhile, solar power will be even cheaper as cells operate at near 100% efficiency, and commercial fusion power will be available by 2044. Climate change will also be tackled by interesting techniques, such as geoengineering with calcite aerosols, and carbon sequestration.</p>
<p><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/infographic-timeline-of-future-technology.jpg" alt="Timeline of Future Technology" /></p>
<p></p>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0;">More on Future Technology</h2>
<p>Want to see more bold predictions about the future of technology?</p>
<p>Check out the future of <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/alternative-energy-sources-future/">alternative energy</a>, the <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/future-of-military-technology/">military</a>, or the futuristic tech that could be <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/interactive-meet-futuristic-tech-inside-next-home/">inside your home</a>.</p>
<p>Lastly, check out some very <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/predictions-earth-in-100-years-future/">speculative predictions</a> about what the world could look like, 100 years from now.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/timeline-future-technology/" target="_blank">VisualCapitalist</a></p>
</div>Detroit Automakers Target Silicon Valley Tech Talenthttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/detroit-automakers-target-silicon-valley-tech-talent2017-05-13T14:40:10.000Z2017-05-13T14:40:10.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>The freezing cold and no million dollar signing bonus would be enough to send me to Silicon Valley.  I grew up next to Lake Michigan and I'd take West coast weather any day..........unless there was more money involved.  Yes, I can be bought. *lol*</p>
<p><iframe width="320" height="240" src="https://www.bloomberg.com/api/embed/iframe?id=aebd0a4b-dd36-4f94-bccf-a7470129ba69" allowscriptaccess="always" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
</div>Trump Comes Out On China And Russiahttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/trump-comes-out-on-china-and-russia2017-01-15T21:24:14.000Z2017-01-15T21:24:14.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a href="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RQ265_TRUMPW_GR_20170113205623.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RQ265_TRUMPW_GR_20170113205623.jpg?width=400" style="padding: 10px;" class="align-left" width="400" /></a>President-elect Donald Trump suggested he would be open to lifting sanctions on Russia and wasn’t committed to a longstanding agreement with China over Taiwan—two signs that he would use any available leverage to realign the U.S.’s relationship with its two biggest global strategic rivals.</p>
<p>In an hourlong interview, Mr. Trump said that, “at least for a period of time,” he would keep intact <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-punishes-russia-over-election-hacking-with-sanctions-1483039178" class="icon none">sanctions against Russia</a> imposed by the Obama administration in late December in response to Moscow’s alleged cyberattacks to influence November’s election. But he suggested he might do away with those penalties if Russia proved helpful in battling terrorists and reaching other goals important to the U.S.</p>
<p>“If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?” he said.</p>
<p>He also said he wouldn’t commit to America’s agreement with China that Taiwan wasn’t to be recognized diplomatically, a policy known as “One China,” until he saw what he considered progress from Beijing in its currency and trade practices.</p>
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<p><span class="font-size-4">THE TRUMP TRANSITION</span></p>
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<p>The desire to change relations with Moscow in particular has been a goal of American presidents since tensions began rising under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sought the same goal early in the Obama administration, as did President George W. Bush, who met Mr. Putin early in his first term.</p>
<p>But Mr. Trump’s diplomatic efforts will have to compete with those in Congress, including many Republicans, who want to see the administration take a tough line with Russia after U.S. intelligence concluded that the government of Mr. Putin sought to influence the November presidential election <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-orders-review-of-email-hacking-during-election-2016-1481304076" class="icon none">with a campaign of cyberhacking</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/spy-agencies-investigating-claims-trump-advisers-worked-with-russian-agents-1484101731" class="icon none">an unsubstantiated dossier of political opposition research</a> suggesting ties between Mr. Trump and Russia was published this past week—drawing condemnation from Mr. Trump and his team but keeping Russian espionage in the spotlight. The allegations haven’t been validated by the U.S. intelligence agencies.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump in the interview suggested he might do away with the Obama administration’s Russian sanctions, and he said he is prepared to meet with Mr. Putin some time after he is sworn in.</p>
<p>“I understand that they would like to meet, and that’s absolutely fine with me,” he said.</p>
<p>Asked if he supported the One China policy on Taiwan, Mr. Trump said: “Everything is under negotiation including One China.”</p>
<p>China has considered Taiwan a breakaway province since Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists set up a government there in 1949, after years of civil war. Washington’s agreement to rescind diplomatic recognition of the government in Taiwan and uphold a One China policy was a precondition for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between U.S. and China in 1979. Any suggestion in the past that the U.S. may change its stance has been met with alarm in Beijing.</p>
<p>On Saturday, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-says-u-s-china-policy-isnt-negotiable-1484418841?tesla=y" class="icon none">a statement posted on the Chinese foreign ministry’s website</a> said, “There is but one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.”</p>
<p>It added, “we urge relevant parties in the U.S. to fully recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan question, approach Taiwan-related issues with prudence and honor the commitment made by all previous U.S. administrations.”</p>
<p>Though he has long been critical of China, Mr. Trump on Friday also made a point of showing a holiday greeting card he received from China’s leader, Xi Jinping.</p>
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<div class="wsj-article-caption">President-elect Donald Trump made many promises in his first post-election news conference. Here is a look at the proposed timing for some of his pledges: <span class="wsj-article-credit">lucas jackson/Reuters</span></div>
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<p>“I have a beautiful card from the chairman,” he said.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump seemed impatient with diplomatic protocols involving China and Taiwan. After his victory he took a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-phone-call-with-taiwan-president-sparks-china-complaint-1480762723" class="icon none">congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s leader</a>, triggering objections from Beijing and stoking concerns among some U.S. foreign policy experts who questioned whether he understood the implications of such a conversation.</p>
<p>Speaking of Taiwan, he said: “We sold them $2 billion of military equipment last year. We can sell them $2 billion of the latest and greatest military equipment but we’re not allowed to accept a phone call. First of all it would have been very rude not to accept the phone call.”</p>
<p>Mr. Trump has said in the past he would label China a currency manipulator after he takes office. In the interview, he said he wouldn’t take that step on his first day in the White House. “I would talk to them first,” he said.</p>
<p>He added: “Certainly they are manipulators. But I’m not looking to do that.”</p>
<p>But he made plain his displeasure with China’s currency practices. “Instead of saying, ‘We’re devaluating our currency,’ they say, ‘Oh, our currency is dropping.’ It’s not dropping. They’re doing it on purpose.</p>
<p>“Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is strong and it’s killing us.”</p>
<p>The interview came at the end of the week in which Mr. Trump saw much of his national-security team get closer to their appointments but had to push back against the Russia allegations and against criticism from ethics experts of his <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-to-place-business-holdings-in-a-trust-run-by-adult-sons-1484152201" class="icon none">plan to maintain ownership of his business interests.</a></p>
<p>Six of his cabinet choices had confirmation hearings, and a number look likely to sail through. Many Democrats offered eager support for his pick for defense secretary, retired Gen. James Mattis.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump also brought his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-names-son-in-law-jared-kushner-as-senior-adviser-1483990270" class="icon none">on as a senior White House adviser</a>, although the appointment could be challenged under antinepotism laws. And he got closer to fulfilling a campaign promise <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-takes-first-step-toward-repeal-of-affordable-care-act-1484202859" class="icon none">as the Senate</a> and <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-takes-first-step-toward-ending-affordable-care-act-1484339948" class="icon none">then the House</a> took procedural steps that begin rolling back or repealing the Affordable Care Act.</p>
<p>“He got elected as a fighter and he’s going to be president as a fighter,” said Ed Brookover, a former Trump campaign adviser. He added that Mr. Trump “is going to be a very active president and push a lot of buttons along the way.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-look-inside-president-elect-donald-trumps-first-news-conference-since-election-day-1484180918" class="icon none">At a jam-packed news conference</a> on Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump was both combative and flattering, shouting down one journalist but praising news outlets who he said covered him fairly. During the session, he accused intelligence agencies of allowing the dossier information to be leaked, and on Twitter he said they were employing the tactics of Nazi Germany. <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/national-intelligence-director-james-clapper-says-agencies-didnt-leak-trump-dossier-1484201755" class="icon none">James Clapper, the director of national intelligence</a>, said he doesn’t believe intelligence officials leaked the information.</p>
<p>Amid a flurry of questions about the dossier, Mr. Trump avoided most direct answers and made just one admission. For the first time, he said he agrees that <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-to-give-first-post-election-news-conference-1484151189" class="icon none">Russia was behind the cyberattack</a> on the Democratic National Committee and a top aide to campaign rival Mrs. Clinton during the election.</p>
<p>He also tossed in the announcement of his pick to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, said he would sign executive orders beginning on Jan. 23, and promised to begin negotiating drug prices with pharmaceutical companies to drive costs down.</p>
<p>Questions about his refusal to divest himself of business holdings lingered, though. A few hours after his press conference, U.S. Office of Government Ethics Director Walter Shaub <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2017/01/11/government-ethics-chief-says-trumps-conflict-of-interest-plan-isnt-good-enough/" class="icon none">criticized Mr. Trump’s new business arrangement</a>, saying his actions were insufficient to remove potential conflicts.</p>
<p>“Every president in modern times has taken the strong medicine of divestiture,” Mr. Shaub said. “Officials in an administration need their president to show that ethics matter, not only through words but through deeds. This is vitally important if we’re going to have any kind of ethics program.”</p>
<p>On Thursday, Gen. Mattis, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, appeared to buck Mr. Trump numerous times, questioning the motives of Mr. Putin, lauding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and saying the U.S. should closely monitor Iran’s compliance with a nuclear agreement, but he stopped short of rejecting the deal, as Mr. Trump has.</p>
<p>Gen. Mattis also suggested that some national security discussions could be contentious, which he said would lead to the best outcomes.</p>
<p>“It’s not tidy,” he said of the process he is expecting. “It’ll anticipate that anything but the best ideas will win.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-nominee-rex-tillerson-to-face-questions-about-russia-climate-rights-1484142027" class="icon none">A day earlier, Rex Tillerson</a> , the pick for secretary of state, had told lawmakers he supported arming Ukraine against Russia and said he was supportive of a trade deal Mr. Obama struck with Asian countries, two statements that conflict with Mr. Trump’s platform.</p>
<p>Later that night, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) said during a CNN town hall that he was working closely with the president-elect to repeal the health-care law but shot down the idea that there would be a “deportation force” to remove illegal immigrants from the U.S. Mr. Trump had said during the campaign that there would be such a force.</p>
<p>Later in the week, Mr. Trump weighed in on the latest development of the issue that dominated the end of the campaign.</p>
<p>He has spent weeks trying to deflect criticism about his election victory, as Democrats argued that Mrs. Clinton had been sandbagged by the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s handling of a probe into whether her private email server had been hacked and whether classified material was improperly moved on it.</p>
<p>The FBI ultimately brought no charges, and on Thursday, the Justice Department’s inspector general confirmed it had opened an investigation into decisions by FBI Director James Comey to make public, days before the election, that agents were scouring a new batch of emails for possible examples of misdeeds by Mrs. Clinton while she was at the State Department. Such a revelation shortly before an election was very unusual.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump on Friday tweeted that the FBI was “VERY nice to her,” adding she “should never…have been allowed to run – guilty as hell.”</p>
<p>In another matter, Mr. Trump during Friday’s interview described a special council, made up of 15 to 20 builders and engineers, that would monitor spending on his $1 trillion plan to improve the nation’s roads, bridges and other public works.</p>
<p>“Some of the projects they’ll throw out, some of the projects they’ll expand, but all of the projects they’ll make sure we get a tremendous bang for the buck,” Mr. Trump said.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-sets-a-bar-for-russia-and-china-1484360380" target="_blank">WSJ</a></p>
</div>Techs Year In Review 2016 With Trump In The Wingshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/techs-year-in-review-2016-with-trump-in-the-wings2016-12-30T16:35:28.000Z2016-12-30T16:35:28.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a href="http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/3e040e07e3e0e2a0d9cbd9d0e887ba29391be32b/c=276-0-4600-3251&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/2016/12/16/USATODAY/USATODAY/636174835194869510-AP-APTOPIX-Trump.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/3e040e07e3e0e2a0d9cbd9d0e887ba29391be32b/c=276-0-4600-3251&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/2016/12/16/USATODAY/USATODAY/636174835194869510-AP-APTOPIX-Trump.jpg?width=300" class="align-left" width="300" /></a></p>
<p>The image was startling, but a look into what could be tech's immediate future.</p>
<p>After being ostracized by the tech industry for most of the election year, there sat venture capitalist Peter Thiel, beaming, to the left of President-elect Donald Trump at the Trump Tower Tech summit in mid-December.</p>
<p>Around him was a ring of glum-faced and pensive tech titans, including Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Alphabet CEO Larry Page and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg.</p>
<p>Silicon Valley's billionaire leaders had disavowed Trump during the campaign, throwing their weight behind rival Hillary Clinton. Only Thiel stumped for the real-estate mogul, and after the tech industry had turned on him for that and his role in Gawker's failure, he was luxuriating in the I-told-you-so moment.</p>
<p>The display of power portends a roiling year or two in tech. Trump railed against Amazon and Apple in tweets about corporate taxes and cyber security; now, he's likely to shape those issues as well as immigration reform, job creation, trade with China, deregulation and more, as he vowed during a bruising campaign.</p>
<p>"Tech is unusual in that the industry does not depend on government regulation or transfer payments, the way that banking, pharma, defense, agriculture and energy do," says Roger McNamee, founding partner of venture-capital firm Elevation Partners. "All tech needs is policy stability and access to global markets. Trump prides himself on being unpredictable."</p>
<p>The stunning development offered a fitting cap to what was a topsy-turvy year for tech, which generated $3.5 trillion in domestic economic output and accounted for more than 15 million people, or 8.4% of total U.S. employment, according to the Computer Technology Association.</p>
<p>In the year that was, there were winners and losers among companies and technologies; new faces emerged while others faded; and driverless cars and drones became more visible in our streets and sky.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/09/23/iphone-7-sales-boom-and-bust-and-so-apple-shares/90698064/">Apple's revenue and iPhone sales</a> subsided while Snapchat threatened established Internet leaders on its way to what is <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/11/15/report-snap-files-ipo-could-value-25b/93926022/">likely to be a blockbuster IPO</a>. Yahoo seemed to nail down a protracted sale of itself, while Twitter's struggles made it a persistent source of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/10/twitter-tumbles-buzz-sale-disappears/91847582/">takeover speculation</a>. In the background, tech's <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/07/28/oracle-acquires-netsuite-93-billion/87652732/">legacy companies</a> entered into a series of cloud and data deals aimed at growth and relevancy.</p>
<p>Uber expanded its growing empire into self-driving cars — not without a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/22/uber-moves-self-driving-cars-pilot-to-arizona/95763516/">trademark dust-up with government authorities</a> — and Amazon <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/14/amazon-delivered-its-first-customer-package-drone/95401366/">soared with drones</a> and our <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/20/amazon-online-sales-bigger-larger/92419572/">spending habits</a>.</p>
<p>But there were growing problems for Facebook, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/12/15/pitched-fight-against-fake-news-takes-shape/95110032/">grappling with a fake news fiasco</a> that <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/16/facebook-users-fed-up-fake-news/95477786/">turned away</a> some users, and at some of the many units at sprawling Google-owner Alphabet, from <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/06/03/embattled-nest-ceo-steps-down-replaced-by-marwan-fawaz/85360524/">Nest</a> to <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/25/google-fiber-halts-rollout-ceo-leaves/92746288/">Fiber</a>.</p>
<p><iframe width="540" height="304" title="USA TODAY - Embed Player" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://www.usatoday.com/videos/embed/94436010/?fullsite=true"></iframe></p>
<h2 class="presto-h2">High-profile meltdowns</h2>
<p>Perhaps no subject loomed over tech — and perhaps the world — than cyber security.</p>
<p>Whether computer breaches that compromised the personal information of millions of consumers to a targeted hack by Russian operatives that conceivably tilted the U.S. presidential election, the very nature of conflict transformed this year, says McNamee.</p>
<p>And with the advent of the Internet of Things, the battlefield could extend to our homes, warn security experts. In October, malicious software that lets hackers take over home devices like DVRs helped cause a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/10/21/cyber-attack-takes-down-east-coast-netflix-spotify-twitter/92507806/">massive Internet outage</a> along the East Coast.</p>
<p>"One of the biggest trends is the world waking up and realizing that connected IoT devices need security," says Talal Shamoon, CEO of computer security company Intertrust.</p>
<p>Samsung's stumble with the self-igniting Galaxy Note 7 was an epic meltdown of quality control, distribution and marketing. Though it didn't dislodge the South Korean electronics giant as the pre-eminent smartphone seller globally, it undercut customer trust and raised questions on how the company will bounce back.</p>
<p>Speaking of hacks and meltdowns, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/14/yahoo-discloses-likely-new-1-billion-account-breach/95443510/">Yahoo disclosed it had been the victim</a> of two mega-hacks that compromised more than 1.5 billion accounts and put its $4.8 billion deal with Verizon in jeopardy.</p>
<p>Amid grousing from Verizon General Counsel Craig Silliman, who said breaches could "impact" the value of Yahoo, Yahoo’s reputation is likely to take a big hit, says Nir Kossovsky, CEO of Steel City Re, which insures companies against the financial impact of breaches and other damaging disclosures.</p>
<h2 class="presto-h2">Our friends, the bots</h2>
<p>The hit TV show <em>Westworld</em>, about a futuristic park run by robotic "hosts," foresaw a society increasingly intertwined, and dependent, on artificial intelligence, bots and automation. Sound familiar?</p>
<p>Artificial intelligence is officially a craze — Facebook, Apple, Google and Microsoft are among those with aggressive plans. Virtual reality became more of a reality.</p>
<p>Drones are popping up in all shapes and sizes — <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2016/12/21/flirtey-7-eleven-completes-77-drone-deliveries-reno-technobubble/95714592/">7-Eleven has been regularly delivering goods</a> to consumers in Reno. Amazon, meanwhile, made its first drone delivery in the United Kingdom this month and <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/09/08/alphabet-x-project-wing-delivering-burritos-by-drone/90090694/">Google X delivered burritos</a> at Virginia Tech in September.</p>
<p>Self-driving cars took to the streets in Michigan, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2016/09/14/uber-gives-riders-preview-driverless-future/90366958/">Pennsylvania</a>, Arizona and California. Fully autonomous cars won’t be available for a few years, but a Morgan Stanley study estimates they will lead to productivity gains of $507 billion annually as consumers spend less time commuting and more time in meetings, writing reports and other business tasks.</p>
<p>Bots were ubiquitous, especially in the spread of fake news.</p>
<p>"Autonomous technology and AI became mainstream in 2016 with self-driving Teslas and new virtual assistants like the Amazon Echo," says Matthew Howard, managing partner at Norwest Venture Partners. "While we now have a clearer picture of where this technology is headed, we’re still only in the first inning (for the second coming of) AI."</p>
<p>There was nothing fake, however, over fears on what AI and increased automation will do to the workforce. This is sure to draw the attention of Trump, who lambasted Apple for exporting jobs overseas and discussed jobs creation in the two-hour tech summit this month.</p>
<p>Automation will have a profound impact on jobs across all Fortune 500 companies — not just Silicon Valley, says Box CEO Aaron Levie. "Tech is at the bleeding edge of the sphere on so many issues," he says. "It will be extremely interesting to see" how Trump's roundtable shakes out.</p>
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<h2 class="presto-h2">The Trump effect</h2>
<p>Speaking of the 45th president, his focus on immigration reform will undoubtedly pinch H-1B visas and heighten the urgency for increased STEM education, which was discussed at December's summit. What is unclear is how it might play into tech's stuttering attempts to become less homogenous by hiring more of the women and minorities who buy its products but have little role in their design.</p>
<p>There are 500,000 computing jobs open in the U.S., with an expected 20% growth rate over the next decade — yet only 55,000 bachelor degrees in computer science were doled out in 2014, according to Code.org and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
<p>"It's more important than ever," says Dennis Yang, CEO of Udemy, an online learning marketplace with more than 14 million students in 190 countries. "Independent of what the administration does, let's be real: Jobs increasingly will be adversely affected by automation. Tech will create jobs, but they will be super high-end, most likely for the building and programming of robots."</p>
<p>Tech's impasse with the Trump administration over job creation seems inevitable, but there may be hope. In his meeting with the reluctant CEOs, Trump vowed to keep the channels of communication open and meet quarterly.</p>
<p>2017 and beyond will tell.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://usat.ly/2hF6h5v" target="_blank">USAToday</a></p>
</div>IDC 2017 predictions: Next tech frontier is ‘augmented humanity"http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/idc-2017-predictions-next-tech-frontier-is-augmented-humanity2016-11-04T16:59:25.000Z2016-11-04T16:59:25.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><div class="entry-content">
<p>Get ready for the era of augmented humanity.</p>
<p>Global research powerhouse IDC says the next era of IT transformation will marry technology with biology to take the human mind and body to unprecedented levels of mental and physical capability.</p>
<p>That was one of the top worldwide <a href="http://www.itbusiness.ca/news/idcs-2016-predictions-iot-headed-for-huge-growth-and-security-headaches/60954">IT predictions</a> for 2017 as outlined Tuesday by Frank Gens, senior vice-president and chief analyst at IDC.</p>
<p>Gens dubbed IDC’s augmented humanity concept its new “fourth platform.” Over the past few years, <a href="http://www.itbusiness.ca/news/idcs-2016-predictions-iot-headed-for-huge-growth-and-security-headaches/60954">IDC</a> has been laying out its view of a “third platform” consisting of cloud, mobile, social and big data/analytics. As described by Gens on Tuesday, the fourth platform of augmented humanity pushes the current wearable technology trend beyond skin-deep layers into “cellular and sub-cellular levels” of our biology.</p>
<p>“The fourth platform will be the penetration of the human body and the integration of technologies with human biosystems,” he said. “This means the fourth platform is us.”</p>
<p>Major tenets of the fourth platform include augmented sensing, augmented memory and cognition, augmented mobility, embedded or injectable technology and augmented identity. Some augmented humanity applications cited by Gens will be purely medical, such as <a href="http://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2014-07-09">brain implants</a> being developed by the U.S. military to treat memory loss.</p>
<img class=" wp-image-82451" src="http://d10pb0rwjcag47.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/smart.tattoo-620x250.jpg" alt="smart-tattoo" width="622" height="251" /></div>
<div class="entry-content">IDC’s Frank Gens cited MIT’s smartphone-controlling skin tattoo as an example of augmented humanity technology. (Photo: MIT)
<p></p>
<p>But other examples mentioned by Gens would have clear commercial uses, like a <a href="http://duoskin.media.mit.edu">smart tattoo</a> created at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to remotely control a user’s smartphone.</p>
<p>Gens said augmented humanity is now in an “innovation stage” that will probably last until 2021 before entering an “early adopters” stage between 2021 and 2026. He foresees the trend becoming “early mainstream” in 2026 – just a decade from now.</p>
<p>“The fourth platform is really going to roll out over the next 10 years (but) the next four years will be crucial,” Gens said.</p>
<h2><strong>Ethical, legal issues</strong></h2>
<p>As with any new technology, augmented humanity is sure to raise questions – and eyebrows – as it evolves.</p>
<p>“We predict ethical and legal issues will come with the fourth platform hand in glove … and create a lot of controversy and debate – and for good reasons,” said Gens.</p>
<p>Rather than spelling the end of third platform technologies, however, he said augmented humanity will build upon them. By 2020, he expects one-third of health and life sciences companies to begin developing the first products and services that integrate third platform technologies with the human body.</p>
<p>IDC had plenty of other prognostications for the coming years. Here are some of the highlights.</p>
<p><strong>Third platform techs:</strong> By 2019, mobile, cloud, big data and social will drive nearly 75 per cent of all IT spending, growing at twice the rate of the total IT market. Technologies currently seen as innovation accelerators – artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), augmented/virtual reality (AR/VR) and blockchain – will become “mainstream” by then, said Gens.</p>
<p><strong>Cloud:</strong> “Cloud will become much more intelligent, industry specialized and channel mediated,” Gens said.</p>
<p>How? According to IDC, cloud will boost the capacity of AI and cognitive computing; cloud-based encryption, threat analytics, compliance and blockchain will become the backbones of trust and security within business transactions and operations; businesses themselves will move beyond simply being consumers of cloud services to provide cloud-based services and products to their own customers.</p>
<p>In addition, we’ll witness the rise of what IDC calls “industry collaborative clouds,” which will triple to a total of 450 by 2018. Gens said organizations will flock to these clouds – formed around vertical industry subsets where members contribute to “a common goal” – to save time and money.</p>
<img class=" wp-image-82457 size-full" src="http://d10pb0rwjcag47.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/frank.gens_.png" alt="frank-gens" width="320" height="180" /></div>
<div class="entry-content">Gens: “The fourth platform is us.”
<p></p>
<p><strong>AI/cognitive computing:</strong> By 2019, 40 per cent of digital transformation initiatives and 100 per cent of IoT initiatives will be supported by AI/cognitive capabilities, IDC predicts. Over 110 million consumer devices with embedded intelligent assistants will likely be installed in U.S. households by that year, IDC added.</p>
<p>Enterprises might want to boost their AI skills and talent pool, since IDC believes 75 per cent of all developer teams will include AI/cognitive functionality in one or more of the applications or services they produce within the next two years.</p>
<p><strong>Developer teams:</strong> Flowing out of that demand for AI apps, IDC expects developer teams to double or triple their current size by 2018 as enterprises continue to transform their businesses through AI and other digital technologies.</p>
<p><strong>Open source:</strong> IDC sees developer teams sourcing more than 80 per cent of their solution components from <a href="http://www.itbusiness.ca/tag/open-source" target="_blank">open source</a> communities by 2020.</p>
<p><strong>AR/VR:</strong> The monthly active base of consumers using mobile VR apps could top 400 million in 2018. Gens said social media is poised to “go immersive,” with over 20 per cent of commercial media on Facebook featuring 360-degree VR by 2020.</p>
<p><strong>IT channel changes:</strong> Although some observers thought SaaS would kill the traditional IT distribution channel, Gens said the proliferation of cloud will actually help transform that old model. As the size and sophistication of the cloud grows, so does the need for integrators and industry-specific offerings, he explained.</p>
<p>“(Channel partners) need lots of help reaching, selling and supporting a wide variety of cloud uses,” he said.</p>
<p>By 2018, major IT distributors will transition at least one-third of their business from hardware sales to cloud services, sales or brokering, IDC suggests.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.itbusiness.ca/news/idc-predictions-for-2017-next-tech-frontier-is-augmented-humanity/82272" target="_blank">ITbusiness</a></p>
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</div>Are Companies Ready For The Internet Of Things?http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/are-companies-ready-for-the-internet-of-things2016-10-29T20:06:50.000Z2016-10-29T20:06:50.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><div style="clear:both"><a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/industrial-internet-iiot-companies-ready/"><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/iiot-infographic.jpg" border="0" /></a></div>
<div>Courtesy of: <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com">Visual Capitalist</a></div>
</div>The Top 10 Emerging Technologies Of 2016http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-top-10-emerging-technologies-of-20162016-07-19T21:02:51.000Z2016-07-19T21:02:51.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_blank" href="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/top-ten-emerging-technologies-2016.jpg"><img class="align-full" src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/top-ten-emerging-technologies-2016.jpg?width=750" width="750" /></a></p>
<p>Sometimes the world is not yet ready for a new technology to enter the fray.</p>
<p>Virtual reality, for example, sat on the sidelines for many years. The industry went into hibernation around the time of the Dot Com Bust, and it has only recently re-emerged with promise.</p>
<p>It is only today that big companies like Microsoft, Google, Samsung, HTC, and Facebook have the infrastructure, peripheral technologies, and capital in place to properly commercialize the technology. Now, instead of using primitive 300 x 200 pixel LCD displays that were prohibitively expensive in the 90s, we are looking at a world where display will be in beautiful 4k quality. Meanwhile, accelerometers and gyroscopes can measure head movement, and modern computing power can reduce lag and latency. It took many years, but finally the true potential of VR is being realized.</p>
<p>Like virtual reality, there are 10 other emerging technologies that are finally ready for prime time. Some, like the recent advances in artificial intelligence, have been decades in the making. Other emerging technologies such as the blockchain are relatively new phenomenons that are also ready for their time in the spotlight.</p>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0;">Emerging Technologies of 2016</h2>
<ol>
<li><strong>Nanosensors and the Internet of Nanothings</strong> is one of the most exciting areas of science today. Tiny sensors that are circulated in the human body or construction materials will be able to relay information and diagnostics to the outside world. This will have an impact on medicine, architecture, agriculture, and drug manufacturing.</li>
<li><strong>Next Generation Batteries</strong> are helping to eliminate one of the biggest obstacles with renewable energy, which is energy storage. Though not commercially available yet, this area shows great promise – and it is something we are tracking in our five-part <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/evolution-of-battery-technology/">Battery Series</a>.</li>
<li><strong>The Blockchain</strong> had investment exceeding $1 billion in 2015. The <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/blockchain-ecosystem-visualization/">blockchain ecosystem</a> is evolving rapidly and will change the way banking, markets, contracts, and governments work.</li>
<li><strong>2d Materials</strong> such as <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/graphene-the-2d-material-that-could-change-everything/">graphene</a> will have an impact in a variety of applications ranging from air and water filters to batteries and wearable technology.</li>
<li><strong>Autonomous Vehicles</strong> are here, and the potential impact is huge. While there are still a <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/six-problems-facing-driverless-cars-and-their-track-record/">few problems to overcome</a>, driverless cars will save lives, cut pollution, boost economies, and improve the quality of life for people.</li>
<li><strong>Organs-on-Chips</strong>, which are tiny models of human organs, are making it easier for scientists to test drugs and conduct medical research.</li>
<li><strong>Petrovskite Solar Cells</strong> are making photovoltaic cells easier to make and more efficient. They also allow cells to be used virtually anywhere.</li>
<li><strong>Open AI Ecosystem</strong> will allow for smart digital assistants in the cloud that will be able to advise us on finance, health, or even fashion.</li>
<li><strong>Optogenetics</strong>, or the use of light and color to record activity in the brain, could help lead to better treatment of brain disorders.</li>
<li><strong>Systems Metabolic Engineering</strong> will allow for building block chemicals to be built with plants more efficiently than can be done with fossil fuels.</li>
</ol>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-10-emerging-technologies-2016/" target="_blank">Infographics</a></p>
</div>Three Megatrends Dominating Global Real Estatehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/three-megatrends-dominating-global-real-estate2016-07-12T16:00:08.000Z2016-07-12T16:00:08.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><div style="clear: both;"><a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/three-megatrends-dominating-global-real-estate/"><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/megatrends-real-estate.jpg" border="0" /></a></div>
<div>Courtesy of: <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com">Visual Capitalist</a></div>
</div>The Computers Have Won And Wall Street Will Never Be The Samehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-computers-have-won-and-wall-street-will-never-be-the-same2016-05-11T00:45:36.000Z2016-05-11T00:45:36.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_blank" href="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5731eccb910584cc008c1f81-1362-1021/screen%20shot%202015-09-14%20at%2010.41.35%20am.png"><img class="align-right" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5731eccb910584cc008c1f81-1362-1021/screen%20shot%202015-09-14%20at%2010.41.35%20am.png?width=300" width="300" /></a>The computers have won.</p>
<p><span><a href="http://www.institutionalinvestorsalpha.com/Article/3552805/The-2016-Rich-List-of-the-Worlds-Top-Earning-Hedge-Fund-Managers.html">Institutional Investor just released its annual list</a> of the top-earning hedge fund managers, and six of the top eight are quants, or managers who rely on computer programs to guide their investing.</span></p>
<p><span>The list includes Ken Griffin of Citadel, Jim Simons of Renaissance Technology, and John Overdeck and David Siegel of Two Sigma.</span></p>
<p><span>In 2002, by contrast, just two computer-driven investors were included in the ranking, according to Institutional Investor.</span></p>
<p><span>The list highlights just how hedge fund investing has changed over the past 15 years.</span></p>
<p><span>It is not that t</span><span>he brash, characterful traders of old are a dying breed. </span><span>There are still plenty of</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> alpha-male risk-takers in a company gilet wandering around New York and Greenwich, Connecticut.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">It's just that they're losing</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> ground to</span> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/two-sigma-artificial-intelligence-air-hockey-2016-4">tech specialists who program robots to play air hockey in their spare time.</a></p>
<p>The rise of quant-driven hedge funds is really just a part of the evolutionary shift that is taking place on Wall Street that encompasses how investment decisions are made and how they are put into action.</p>
<p>Simply put, technology is now a much bigger part of the investment process for many funds. They're using computing power to sift through reams of existing data — and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/foursquare-data-predicted-chipotle-results-2016-4">finding new sources of data made possible by the proliferation of consumer technology like the iPhone</a> — and <strong>all to try and predict what the market might do, or the next set of data might reveal.</strong></p>
<p>Their jobs pages are full of tech postings. Renaissance is looking for computer programmers with no finance experience required. Two Sigma has roles in data science, machine-learning, cloud computing, and software engineering.</p>
<p>And don't forget, Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-ray-dalio-why-he-hired-jon-rubinstein-2016-3">now has a former Steve Jobs lieutenant as co-CEO</a> and wants to extend <span>"</span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-hires-jon-rubinstein-2016-3">the systematized decision-making</a><span>" used in investing into management.</span></p>
<p><span class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><span><span data-post-image="" class="image"><a class="zoomin" href="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/573242e552bcd044008c2241-960/screen%20shot%202016-05-10%20at%204.21.21%20pm.png"><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/573242e552bcd044008c2241-1050-533/screen%20shot%202016-05-10%20at%204.21.21%20pm.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 05 10 at 4.21.21 PM" data-mce-source="Renaissance Technologies" /></a><span class="source"><span>Renaissance Technologies</span></span><span class="caption">A Renaissance Technologies job posting.</span></span></span></span></p>
<p>These funds also tend to execute their trades with a minimum of human involvement, a process that has become easier as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-electronification-of-fixed-income-2016-4">many markets have moved to electronic platforms.</a></p>
<p>The vast majority of stock trading is now completed electronically. Tech-driven high-frequency trader <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hft-firms-in-us-treasury-market-2016-4">firms now dominate the US Treasury market.</a> Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have described <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/marianne-lake-says-jpmorgan-is-a-tech-company-2016-2">themselves as technology companies.</a></p>
<p>That obviously means <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-to-replace-wall-street-traders-2015-8">there is less need for the traders of old</a>. Unsurprisingly, that has a lot of people worried.</p>
<p>At this point, though, I'm reminded of a great anecdote from Nathaniel Popper's <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/business/dealbook/goldmans-tech-chief-pushes-the-bank-to-be-more-open-like-him.html">recent profile of Goldman Sachs' chief information officer, Marty Chavez.</a> Chavez has pushed hard for a focus on technology, even though it may lead to job cuts for those replaced by it.</p>
<p>When faced with pushback from colleagues, Chavez was direct in his response, according to colleague Adam Korn:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>He basically said something to the effect of: "If your job is a purely manual job and you are just clicking buttons, you should look to upgrade your skills set now."</span></p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/quant-funds-dominate-hedge-fund-rich-list-2016-5" target="_blank">BusinessInsider</a></p>
</div>Weekend Readinghttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/weekend-reading2016-03-28T02:59:50.000Z2016-03-28T02:59:50.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>In addition to charts I uploaded (which there are many more but I'm short on time, it being a holiday) here are a few of my weekend email reads I found interesting. Enjoy - and Happy Easter.</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://blog.variantperception.com/2016/03/18/commercial-and-industrial-lending-to-fall" target="_blank">Variant</a> sees commercial and industrial lending to continue to fall.  No, not a good thing.</li>
<li>The top 20 reasons start ups fail.  <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/why-startups-fail-20-common-reasons/" target="_blank">Visual Capitalist</a></li>
<li>Think renewables will gain usage over coal and crude oil?  You may be surprised.  <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/A-reality-check-for-renewable-energy" target="_blank">McKinsey</a></li>
<li>Domo origato mr roboto <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/domo-arigato-mr-roboto-chart/" target="_blank">Visual Capitalist</a></li>
<li>Here we go again as banks ramp up and push home equity loans (because we didn't learn the last time).  <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-ramp-up-push-for-home-equity-lines-1458984782" target="_blank">WSJ</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brookings-now/posts/2016/03/new-technologies-havent-made-us-more-productive" target="_blank">Brookings</a> says technology actually has not made up more productive (say what?)</li>
<li>The richest and poorest countries in the world. <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/richest-and-poorest-countries-in-the-world/" target="_blank">Visual Capitalist</a></li>
</ol>
</div>Chinas Move Won't Help U.S. Tech Firmshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/chinas-move-won-t-help-u-s-tech-firms2015-08-30T15:37:43.000Z2015-08-30T15:37:43.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>China’s moves to spur its slowing economy and restore investor confidence are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening Chinese companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals, many of whom have staked their growth plans on the world’s second-largest market.</p>
<p>The government’s <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-moves-to-devalue-the-yuan-1439258401" target="_self" class="icon none">surprise decision in early August to devalue China’s currency</a>, in particular, could make it harder for U.S. companies to sell into the country by making their products more expensive to local buyers.</p>
<p>At the same time, a cheaper yuan makes Chinese-produced goods less costly abroad—dovetailing with government policies that have been promoting foreign sales by Chinese technology vendors.</p>
<p>“We see the key driver [of government action] being exports,” said Handel Jones, a consultant at International Business Strategies Inc. who has written books on China’s high-tech sector. Chinese companies “will become more aggressive.”</p>
<p>Once known mainly for its low-cost manufacturing, China became a prime target for many U.S. companies bent on growth owing to its huge population, which amounts to 20% of the global total. But the country is no longer merely a consumer and manufacturer of products conceived abroad. Local companies are coming up with homegrown designs for mobile devices, PCs and other products, and some are beginning to court global markets largely dominated by U.S. companies.</p>
<p>In smartphones, where China ranks as the world’s largest market, Xiaomi Corp. and Huawei Technologies Co. <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/xiaomi-chinas-new-phone-giant-takes-aim-at-world-1433731461" target="_self" class="icon none">have used attractively designed and priced products to take the No. 1 and No. 2 sales positions</a>. Chinese brands, in fact, accounted for four of the top five brands in the country in the second quarter, researchers at International Data Corp. found.</p>
<p><a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/AAPL">Apple</a> <span class="company-name-type">Inc.,</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/AAPL" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a> at No. 3, is still enjoying brisk iPhone sales and generating big profits in China. But <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/SSNHZ">Samsung Electronics</a> <span class="company-name-type">Co.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/SSNHZ" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a> is no longer among the top five suppliers there, according to IDC. Troubles in its mobile unit have triggered declines in net profit for five straight quarters.</p>
<p>Slowing demand hasn’t helped. Smartphone shipments in China fell 4% in the second quarter year on year, Gartner Inc. said, marking the first-ever decline there. IDC this week cut its forecast for unit growth in 2015 to 1.2% from 2.5%, down from 19.7% in 2014.</p>
<p>The flagging domestic market is encouraging some Chinese phone vendors to look abroad for sales. Xiaomi, for example, has begun selling smartphones in Brazil and India. Huawei, which has long operated around the world, sells half its smartphones outside of China and is making a particularly aggressive push in Peru and other South American countries.</p>
<p>“You walk around Lima and you see Huawei almost everywhere,” said Ryan Reith, an IDC analyst.</p>
<p>The rise of Chinese brands extends to personal computers, server systems and networking devices. Chinese customers in many cases are shifting their buying to products from local companies, hurting U.S. companies like <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/HPQ">Hewlett-Packard</a> <span class="company-name-type">Co.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/HPQ" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a>, <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/IBM">International Business Machines</a> <span class="company-name-type">Corp.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/IBM" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a> and <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/CSCO">Cisco Systems</a> <span class="company-name-type">Inc.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/CSCO" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a></p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-KB075_chinat_TOP_20150827174258.jpg"><img class="align-right" src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-KB075_chinat_TOP_20150827174258.jpg?width=300" width="300" /></a><span class="wsj-article-caption-content">Xiaomi has used attractively designed and priced products to take the No. 1 smartphone sales position in China, where Apple ranks No. 3. Above, the Xiaomi Note, left, next to an iPhone 6.</span> <span class="wsj-article-credit" itemprop="creator"><span class="wsj-article-credit-tag">Photo:</span> Peter Earl McCollough for The Wall Street Journal</span> Chinese vendors that once relied mainly on low-cost manufacturing have realized they can do better if they handle design and other chores themselves, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University Channel Islands. “The money is in design, distribution and marketing,” he said. In servers, for example, China’s <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/LNVGY">Lenovo Group</a> <span class="company-name-type">Ltd.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/LNVGY" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a> reached No. 1 in its home country <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/lenovo-gains-all-approvals-for-ibm-deal-1411964681" target="_self" class="icon none">after completing the purchase of IBM’s high-volume server line</a>. Lenovo’s server shipments in China more than doubled in the second quarter, IDC estimated. Huawei, which ranked second in China server sales behind Lenovo, posted a 30% jump in sales. H-P, the world’s largest server maker, grew just 9% in China in the quarter and ranked fifth in the market. Dell Inc.’s unit shipments in China fell 2.5%.</p>
<p>The sheer scale of the Chinese market makes such trends worrisome for foreign companies. The country is expected to spend about $211 billion this year on information technology excluding telecom services, IDC estimated before the recent economic gyrations. That is second only to the U.S., and accounts for about 10% of total global spending.</p>
<p>The stakes are high for startups as well. China has attracted a mob of Silicon Valley upstarts, some of which have been banking on money from Chinese investors or raising money on the prospect of sales in the country.</p>
<p>The Chinese affiliate of Uber Technologies Inc. is close to securing about $1 billion in new funding from investors in the region, part of the ride-hailing company’s rivalry with deep-pocketed Chinese rival Didi Kuaidi Joint Co.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BT-AD911_CHINAT_9U_20150827165105.jpg"><img class="align-left" src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BT-AD911_CHINAT_9U_20150827165105.jpg?width=400" width="400" /></a>Investors have agreed to funding that would value UberChina at about $7.5 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. The final paperwork has been signed but it could take several weeks for the round to officially close, the person said.</p>
<p>China also looms large for home-rental site Airbnb Inc., which has announced it would work with Sequoia Capital’s China arm and China Broadband Capital to expand in the country. The Chinese investment firm Hillhouse led Airbnb’s latest financing round, which valued the company at $25.5 billion based in part on big projections of future growth that may require substantial international expansion.</p>
<p>Developments in the Chinese market aren’t all bad for U.S. companies. The declining yuan, for example, could reduce the costs of goods they buy or manufacture there, helping their profit margins.</p>
<p>And not all U.S. companies face credible local competition. <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/INTC">Intel</a> <span class="company-name-type">Corp.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/INTC" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a> and longtime rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., for example, are the only companies that supply the kinds of processor chips used in PCs.</p>
<p>But Chinese companies are developing expertise in other chips, including cellular modems and another variety of processor found in most smartphones. That trend could pose a challenge to Intel’s attempts to penetrate the mobile market, and to mobile-chip leader <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/QCOM">Qualcomm</a> <span class="company-name-type">Inc.</span> <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/QCOM" class="chiclet-wrapper"></a>’s effort to defend its turf.</p>
<p>“The Chinese government has been very open and public about wanting to reduce their reliance on foreign silicon,” said Derek Aberle, Qualcomm’s president, in a recent interview.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-moves-wont-help-u-s-tech-firms-1440745381" target="_blank">WSJ</a></p>
</div>The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trendshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-four-global-forces-breaking-all-the-trends2015-04-30T23:50:20.000Z2015-04-30T23:50:20.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><strong>In the Industrial Revolution</strong> of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, one new force changed everything. Today our world is undergoing an even more dramatic transition due to the confluence of <em>four</em> fundamental disruptive forces—any of which would rank among the greatest changes the global economy has ever seen. Compared with the Industrial Revolution, we estimate that this change is happening ten times faster and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times the impact. Although we all know that these disruptions are happening, most of us fail to comprehend their full magnitude and the second- and third-order effects that will result. Much as waves can amplify one another, these trends are gaining strength, magnitude, and influence as they interact with, coincide with, and feed upon one another. Together, these four fundamental disruptive trends are producing monumental change.</p>
<h3>1. Beyond Shanghai: The age of urbanization</h3>
<p>The first trend is the shifting of the locus of economic activity and dynamism to emerging markets like China and to cities within those markets. These emerging markets are going through simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions, shifting the center of the world economy east and south at a speed never before witnessed. As recently as 2000, 95 percent of the Fortune Global 500—the world’s largest international companies including Airbus, IBM, Nestlé, Shell, and The Coca-Cola Company, to name a few—were headquartered in developed economies. By 2025, when China will be home to more large companies than either the United States or Europe, we expect nearly half of the world’s large companies—defined as those with revenue of $1 billion or more—to be headquartered in emerging markets. “Over the years, people in our headquarters, in Frankfurt, started complaining to me, ‘We don’t see you much around here anymore,’” said Josef Ackermann, the former chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank. “Well, there was a reason why: growth has moved elsewhere—to Asia, Latin America, the Middle East.”</p>
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<p class="grayNote">Explore the four disruptive forces that will change the global economy.</p>
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<p>Perhaps equally important, the locus of economic activity is shifting within these markets. The global urban population has been rising by an average of 65 million people annually during the past three decades, the equivalent of adding seven Chicagos a year, every year. Nearly half of global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025 will come from 440 cities in emerging markets—95 percent of them small- and medium-size cities that many Western executives may not even have heard of and couldn’t point to on a map.<a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/The_four_global_forces_breaking_all_the_trends?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1504#" class="link-footnote" rel="#footnote1"><sup>1</sup></a> Yes, Mumbai, Dubai, and Shanghai are familiar. But what about Hsinchu, in northern Taiwan? Brazil’s Santa Catarina state, halfway between São Paulo and the Uruguayan border? Or Tianjin, a city that lies around 120 kilometers southeast of Beijing? In 2010, we estimated that the GDP of Tianjin was around $130 billion, making it around the same size as Stockholm, the capital of Sweden. By 2025, we estimate that the GDP of Tianjin will be around $625 billion—approximately that of all of Sweden.</p>
<h3>2. The tip of the iceberg: Accelerating technological change</h3>
<p>The second disruptive force is the acceleration in the scope, scale, and economic impact of technology. Technology—from the printing press to the steam engine and the Internet—has always been a great force in overturning the status quo. The difference today is the sheer ubiquity of technology in our lives and the speed of change. It took more than 50 years after the telephone was invented until half of American homes had one. It took radio 38 years to attract 50 million listeners. But Facebook attracted 6 million users in its first year and that number multiplied 100 times over the next five years. China’s mobile text- and voice-messaging service WeChat has 300 million users, more than the entire adult population of the United States. Accelerated adoption invites accelerated innovation. In 2009, two years after the iPhone’s launch, developers had created around 150,000 applications. By 2014, that number had hit 1.2 million, and users had downloaded more than 75 billion total apps, more than ten for every person on the planet. As fast as innovation has multiplied and spread in recent years, it is poised to change and grow at an exponential speed beyond the power of human intuition to anticipate.</p>
<p>Processing power and connectivity are only part of the story. Their impact is multiplied by the concomitant data revolution, which places unprecedented amounts of information in the hands of consumers and businesses alike, and the proliferation of technology-enabled business models, from online retail platforms like Alibaba to car-hailing apps like Uber. Thanks to these mutually amplifying forces, more and more people will enjoy a golden age of gadgetry, of instant communication, and of apparently boundless information. Technology offers the promise of economic progress for billions in emerging economies at a speed that would have been unimaginable without the mobile Internet. Twenty years ago, less than 3 percent of the world’s population had a mobile phone; now two-thirds of the world’s population has one, and one-third of all humans are able to communicate on the Internet.<a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/The_four_global_forces_breaking_all_the_trends?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1504#" class="link-footnote" rel="#footnote2"><sup>2</sup></a> Technology allows businesses such as WhatsApp to start and gain scale with stunning speed while using little capital. Entrepreneurs and start-ups now frequently enjoy advantages over large, established businesses. The furious pace of technological adoption and innovation is shortening the life cycle of companies and forcing executives to make decisions and commit resources much more quickly.</p>
<h3>3. Getting old isn’t what it used to be: Responding to the challenges of an aging world</h3>
<p>The human population is getting older. Fertility is falling, and the world’s population is graying dramatically. While aging has been evident in developed economies for some time—Japan and Russia have seen their populations decline over the past few years—the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and soon will reach Latin America. For the first time in human history, aging could mean that the planet’s population will plateau in most of the world. Thirty years ago, only a small share of the global population lived in the few countries with fertility rates substantially below those needed to replace each generation—2.1 children per woman. But by 2013, about 60 percent of the world’s population lived in countries with fertility rates below the replacement rate. This is a sea change. The European Commission expects that by 2060, Germany’s population will shrink by one-fifth, and the number of people of working age will fall from 54 million in 2010 to 36 million in 2060, a level that is forecast to be less than France’s. China’s labor force peaked in 2012, due to income-driven demographic trends. In Thailand, the fertility rate has fallen from 5 in the 1970s to 1.4 today. A smaller workforce will place a greater onus on productivity for driving growth and may cause us to rethink the economy’s potential. Caring for large numbers of elderly people will put severe pressure on government finances.</p>
<h3>4. Trade, people, finance, and data: Greater global connections</h3>
<p>The final disruptive force is the degree to which the world is much more connected through trade and through movements in capital, people, and information (data and communication)—what we call “flows.” Trade and finance have long been part of the globalization story but, in recent decades, there’s been a significant shift. Instead of a series of lines connecting major trading hubs in Europe and North America, the global trading system has expanded into a complex, intricate, sprawling web. Asia is becoming the world’s largest trading region. “South–south” flows between emerging markets have doubled their share of global trade over the past decade. The volume of trade between China and Africa rose from $9 billion in 2000 to $211 billion in 2012. Global capital flows expanded 25 times between 1980 and 2007. More than one billion people crossed borders in 2009, over five times the number in 1980. These three types of connections all paused during the global recession of 2008 and have recovered only slowly since. But the links forged by technology have marched on uninterrupted and with increasing speed, ushering in a dynamic new phase of globalization, creating unmatched opportunities, and fomenting unexpected volatility.</p>
<h3>Resetting intuition</h3>
<p>These four disruptions gathered pace, grew in scale, and started collectively to have a material impact on the world economy around the turn of the 21st century. Today, they are disrupting long-established patterns in virtually every market and every sector of the world economy—indeed, in every aspect of our lives. Everywhere we look, they are causing trends to break down, to break up, or simply to break. The fact that all four are happening at the same time means that our world is changing radically from the one in which many of us grew up, prospered, and formed the intuitions that are so vital to our decision making.</p>
<p>This can play havoc with forecasts and pro forma plans that were made simply by extrapolating recent experience into the near and distant future. Many of the assumptions, tendencies, and habits that had long proved so reliable have suddenly lost much of their resonance. We’ve never had more data and advice at our fingertips—literally. The iPhone or the Samsung Galaxy contains far more information and processing power than the original supercomputer. Yet we work in a world in which even, perhaps especially, professional forecasters are routinely caught unawares. That’s partly because intuition still underpins much of our decision making.</p>
<p>Our intuition has been formed by a set of experiences and ideas about how things worked during a time when changes were incremental and somewhat predictable. Globalization benefited the well established and well connected, opening up new markets with relative ease. Labor markets functioned quite reliably. Resource prices fell. But that’s not how things are working now—and it’s not how they are likely to work in the future. If we look at the world through a rearview mirror and make decisions on the basis of the intuition built on our experience, we could well be wrong. In the new world, executives, policy makers, and individuals all need to scrutinize their intuitions from first principles and boldly reset them if necessary. This is especially true for organizations that have enjoyed great success.</p>
<p>While it is full of opportunities, this era is deeply unsettling. And there is a great deal of work to be done. We need to realize that much of what we think we know about how the world works is wrong; to get a handle on the disruptive forces transforming the global economy; to identify the long-standing trends that are breaking; to develop the courage and foresight to clear the intellectual decks and prepare to respond. These lessons apply as much to policy makers as to business executives, and the process of resetting your internal navigation system can’t begin soon enough.</p>
<p>There is an urgent imperative to adjust to these new realities. Yet, for all the ingenuity, inventiveness, and imagination of the human race, we tend to be slow to adapt to change. There is a powerful human tendency to want the future to look much like the recent past. On these shoals, huge corporate vessels have repeatedly foundered. Revisiting our assumptions about the world we live in—and doing nothing—will leave many of us highly vulnerable. Gaining a clear-eyed perspective on how to negotiate the changing landscape will help us prepare to succeed.</p>
<p><em>This article is an edited excerpt from</em> <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/no_ordinary_disruption">No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends</a><em>, to be be published on May 12 by PublicAffairs.</em></p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/The_four_global_forces_breaking_all_the_trends?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1504" target="_blank">McKinsey</a></p>
</div>Apple Is Suddenly Interested In Health Technologyhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/apple-is-suddenly-interested-in-health-technology2013-07-20T14:45:26.000Z2013-07-20T14:45:26.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>As first reported by <a href="http://9to5mac.com/2013/07/18/apple-stacks-iwatch-team-with-sensor-fitness-experts/">9to5Mac</a>, Apple has been bringing on board experts in sensors that monitor the human body. They’re from companies like AccuVein, C8 MediSensors and Senseonics.</p>
<p>The wearable technology market is expected to grow immensely in popularity in the next few years: one firm estimates the 500,000 smartwatches that have shipped so far this year will <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/07/17/warm-up-your-wrist-5m-smartwatch-shipments-expected-in-2014/">explode to 5 million units by the end of 2014</a>. The optimism built into the numbers comes from the long-held assumption that Apple will do its own smartwatch. But lots of big consumer electronics companies will help bring the devices into the main<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290126?profile=original"><img class="align-right" style="padding: 5px;" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290126?profile=RESIZE_480x480" height="195" width="375"></a>stream: that may include Microsoft, Motorola and Samsung, in addition to entries from smaller, niche companies like Pebble.</p>
<p>But wearable computing includes far more than watches. There’s Google Glass, of course, and simple fitness-tracking, wrist-worn devices like Nike’s, and products from Jawbone, Fitbit and others. Clothing with sensors in them will be part of the mix too, like <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/05/16/you-call-google-glass-wearable-tech-heapsylon-makes-sensor-rich-fabric/">Heapsylon’s smart socks</a> that infuse material with sensors that track body processes and movements.</p>
<p>The frequency of reports about the progress of <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/07/05/why-apple-needs-a-wearable-computer-as-much-as-wearables-need-apples-touch/">Apple’s wearable device project</a> have picked up in recent months. The company has <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/07/02/apples-quest-for-the-iwatch-trademark-expands/">registered the “iWatch” trademark</a> in several countries, and is said to <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/07/15/apple-still-hiring-for-iwatch-project-2014-launch-looking-more-likely/">still be hiring hardware engineers</a> to work on it.</p>
<p>But will it be an actual watch? Based on the kinds of people Apple is hiring, the device may have a health or fitness component to it that will take advantage of the company’s vast third-party app platform and its expertise in mobile hardware. It will probably tell time, and it may be worn on the wrist — Cook has said he finds that area “interesting.” Still, “watch” is a little too simplistic considering the kind of sensors it’ll likely have inside it.</p>
<p>Read more @ <a href="http://gigaom.com/2013/07/18/apple-is-suddenly-really-interested-in-health-tech/" target="_blank">Gigaom</a></p></div>You Are About To Become Obsoletehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/you-are-about-to-become-obsolete2013-06-01T02:37:07.000Z2013-06-01T02:37:07.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><span class="font-size-3"><strong><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290389?profile=original"><img class="align-left" style="padding: 15px;" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290389?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="187"></a>We've spoken of this</strong></span> from time-to-time in Chat and I never leave feeling very reassured for my children's children. </p>
<p>Remember the milkman? The corner newspaper paperboy? The assembly line workers at Detroit automotive plants? How about the shrinking postal service and empty ghost plants that were once steel mills? Then there are travel agents and printing press operators; both almost eliminated at this juncture.</p>
<p>As we speak, millions of algorithms created by computer scientists are frantically running on servers all over the world, with one sole purpose: do whatever humans can do, but better. According to some, the displacement of labour by machines and computer intelligence will increase dramatically over the next few decades. Such changes will be so drastic and quick that the market will not be able to abide in creating new opportunities for workers who have lost their jobs, making unemployment not just part of a cycle, but structural in nature and chronically irreversible. It will be the end of work as we know it.</p>
<p>Of course not all are in agreement on this fringe subject however I offer you this <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/05/you-are-about-to-become-obsolete.html" target="_blank">Part One</a> in a series of three from Mish. Please give your comments below. Do you feel this is a permanent, structural shift and if so, what are the implications for spending long term and our capital markets? What, if anything, can be done to transform the situation? Are you about to become obsolete?</p></div>The Best Place to Hide Something is Out in the Open - A Brief Analysis of PETShttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-best-place-to-hide-something-is-out-in-the-open-a-brief-12013-01-28T00:30:00.000Z2013-01-28T00:30:00.000ZHoney Badger(Drewski)http://stockbuz.ning.com/members/DrewNShingler<div><p> </p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">My infatuation with technology, internet, and social media companies has passed for the most part. I rarely pay attention to any of them. I will admit to keeping one eye on Google and Amazon. Google has a moat that isn't easily overcome. Amazon is really a low cost retailer that interacts with it's customers through the internet. Let me restate that, Amazon is THE low cost retailer, the Walmart of the internet, so to speak. All that being said, you must be asking yourself “Why in the hell is he writing a blog about Pet Med Express?”. Let me give you some background on how I ended up here, writing this.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">As many of you know at StockBuz, I use the Vuru website frequently while researching companies. It provides some nice tools and the price is right, free. Anyway while visiting the site and scanning the discussion area, I came across a post by user Alexleroi about Pet Med Express (PETS). Generally I find that user's posts very insightful. In the post, he pointed out two major issues with PETS. First, PETS has $12.5 million in illiquid auction rate securities that they are booking as assets on their balance sheet. And secondly, they seem to expense their TV advertisements only after they have aired as opposed to expensing them, oh I don't know, when the money is actually spent. My sarcasm is provided free of charge. Here's the link to the actual post and discussion:</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.vuru.co/analysis/PETS/discussion">http://www.vuru.co/analysis/PETS/discussion</a></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Well, since I don't fall into the “it's on the internet, so it must be true” camp, I downloaded the PETS 2011 annual report. I suspected that Alexleroi wasn't making it up. I expected to find both issues as well. Probably buried deep in the fine print of the back pages of the report. Not surprisingly, while reviewing the report I found both of the issues that had been mentioned earlier. What did surprise me was how honest PETS was about it. Each issue is mentioned throughout the report, not just the fine print on the last few pages. Anyone who read half of the report(it's not very long) would be aware of the auction rate securities and the expense as they are broadcast advertisements.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://investor-relations.petmeds.com/petmeds-annual-report-2011/PetMedExpress2011AnnualReport.pdf">http://investor-relations.petmeds.com/petmeds-annual-report-2011/PetMedExpress2011AnnualReport.pdf</a></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Now some of you must be thinking PETS should be commended, at least in some small way, for being brutally honest. Well just because they were honest on both issues doesn't make either issue correct. In fact their honesty only guarantees that they will not have as big a fine to pay the SEC, later, when they will probably be forced to restate several years of earnings. Though I can't say this with absolute certainty (I refuse to spend that much time and research on this company!lol), PETS probably is massaging the earnings numbers because the executives are in some way compensated based on earnings.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Another observer might conclude that they are simply trying to smooth out lumpy earnings and will take the write-down on the ARS's when earnings have a significant increase. The logic of that argument is seriously flawed. They are essentially a small, internet based veterinary pharmacy. They offer nothing that can't be found elsewhere. They can't compete on price because they do not have the economies of scale that a Walmart or Walgreen has. All they have is name recognition and maybe a small loyal customer base. Honestly I may be reaching on both counts. Growing earnings consistently in the future is probably a pipe dream. Even maintaining it's current level may prove a feat to far. In my opinion the company is a deteriorating asset whose only hope is to be bought by a bigger player at some point in the future.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Looking further into the company, in my opinion, the executives are slowly bleeding the company dry. They initiate a dividend of $.60 a share while net income has fallen roughly 36% over the past 3 years; from roughly $26 million to $16.7 million. The payout ratio is 76%. A ratio that high may be sustainable and healthy for a large, slow growing utility like Consolidated Edison. For a small company in a competitive field with shrinking margins, a ratio that high is neither healthy or sustainable. You take into account the $12.5 million in illiquid auction rate securities which yield a paltry .80%(assuming no defaults), well below the current low inflation rate, and alarms really start to go off. If net income continues to fall they will have to cut or eliminate the dividend. Financing the dividend may prove difficult for a company of this size, though they do have very little debt on their balance sheet.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">In conclusion, if PETS is not a great example of hiding something out in the open, I'm not sure what would qualify. Their example is also solid proof that most of Wall Street does not read the annual or quarterly reports. If Wall Street actually did read the financials, PETS would not be trading at 4x book with nearly 80% of the float held by institutions. One caveat 28% of the float is held short, so at least 10% of the institutions' positions are actually short, though, I'm certain the Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund and various Vanguard Index funds do not hold short positions. Between the Fidelity fund and the Vanguard Index funds, they collectively own 18+% of the float. Not exactly a shining endorsement for passive or active management in the mutual fund universe, is it? But that's another discussion entirely. PETS, on the surface may appear to be a solid value play. Once some basic research is completed, a rational investor will come to a different conclusion. Stay away, at best it is a deteriorating asset. At worst, PETS is a shell game that will only enrich management at the expense of shareholders.</p></div>