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Bank EPS Lifted Ahead Of The Fed Rate Hike

The S&P 500 Financials sector has been a focus sector for the markets in recent weeks. This past week, the Federal Reserve Board increased the target range for the federal funds rate. Earnings for banks and other companies in the Financials sector are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates. In addition, this sector has recorded the largest increase in value (+22.2%) of all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 since the start of the fourth quarter (September 30). Given these developments, have analysts been increasing their 2017 EPS estimates for banks and other companies in the S&P 500 Financials sector over the past few months?

The answer is yes. In terms of EPS estimate revisions, 38 of the 63 companies (60%) in the S&P 500 Financials sector have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 since September 30. At the sub-industry level, the three subindustries that have the largest percentages of companies that have recorded an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 (since September 30) are all bank-related subindustries: Regional Banks, Investment Banking & Brokerage, and Diversified Banks.

Sub-Industry Outlook

Eleven of the 11 companies (100%) in the Regional Banks sub-industry have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 since September 30, led by Huntington Bancshares (to 0.94 from 0.88), Citizens Financial Group (to $2.18 from $2.06), and Regions Financial (to $0.95 from $0.90).

Four of the four companies (100%) in the Investment Banking & Brokerage subindustry have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 since September 30, led by Morgan Stanley (to $3.18 from $2.97) and Goldman Sachs (to 18.02 from 16.88).

Five of the six companies (83%) in the Diversified Banks subindustry have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate for 2017 since September 30, led by Comerica (to 3.84 from 3.37) and Bank of America (to 1.64 from $1.54).

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Courtesy of Factset

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